Global Scans · Capitalism · Weekly Summary

• [New] The dynamic around budget exhaustion in the fourth quarter is driven by exploration and production (E & P) capital discipline and is a trend that is expected again in 2025, while being somewhat offset by increased activity in the second quarter as budgets are level-loaded in Canada. Stockhouse
• [New] In Aerospace & Defence: LMT was downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC Capital as believes the F-35 faces greater headline risk for international sales (while it sees little risk to actual order cancellations) and increased US budget pressure. eOption
• [New] US Capital Advisors issued estimates for Energy Transfer's Q2 2025 earnings at $0.31 EPS, Q1 2026 earnings at $0.38 EPS, Q2 2026 earnings at $0.35 EPS, Q3 2026 earnings at $0.37 EPS, Q4 2026 earnings at $0.38 EPS, FY2026 earnings at $1.48 EPS and FY2027 earnings at $1.56 EPS. MarketBeat
• [New] A U.S. investment deal could inject much-needed capital and encourage other Western nations to follow suit. tippinsights
• [New] The new Security Action for Europe instrument, through which the Commission will raise EUR 150 billion on capital markets to provide loans to Member States guaranteed by the EU budget. Dods Political Intelligence
• [New] We now see a 30% probability that the US economy will face a 'Stagflation Light' outlook, whereby growth slips to about 1.4% in 2025 and a 20-30% chance of a 'mini recession', which would result in a contraction output over Q2-Q3, dragging full-year growth lower to 0.8%. Fitch Solutions
• [New] US stocks have gotten slammed in the last month as President Donald Trump's tariffs on key trade partners raise the risk of trade wars that may cause either a recession or stagflation, which is marked by weak growth and higher prices. Business Insider
• [New] Climate collapse will devastate global food systems and eviscerate natural capital, with serious implications for the US economy specifically. Verdict
• [New] If both the U.S. and Canada impose sweeping tariffs, it could even push Canada's economy toward a recession. JORI Logistics
• [New] The Canadian economy was in a strong position at the start of 2025 as inflation was under control and growth was picking up, spurring hope Canada had avoided a recession. BNN Bloomberg
• [New] Evolved Production Technology: Mazda's existing mixed-flow production line, enhanced by Monozukuri Innovation 2.0, will also be used for battery EVs, reducing initial capital investment by 85% and preparation time by 80% compared to new plant construction. Mazda USA Newsroom
• [New] Threats of a recession, layoffs, and higher prices due to tariffs is a lot for U.S. consumers to process in a very short timeframe and making them very nervous. FinExtra
• [New] In light of the current exceptional circumstances, the Commission will raise up to 150 billion euro on the capital markets, drawing on its well-established unified funding approach to help EU Member States rapidly and substantially increase investments in Europe's defence capabilities. The Sofia Globe
• [New] Moody's expects the near-term impact on profitability and capital to be manageable but emphasized that the lack of effective internal controls remains a significant credit concern. Economic Times
• [New] Without a course correction, businesses and capital will keep leaving, taking the UK's reputation as a financial leader with them. Forbes
• [New] Mexico, heavily affected by tariffs and supply chain disruptions, risks slipping into recession, with contractions projected at 1.3% in 2025. Business Economy
• [New] The Bank of Canada is in a challenging spot, given that a trade war with the U.S. could push the Canadian economy into a recession in the coming quarters but also reignite inflation, which was only recently tamed following years of rapid price growth coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Globe and Mail
• Beyond external concerns, such as a potential recession in the world's largest economy, crypto's biggest industry-specific risk is the circular nature of its economy. ADVFN
• The OECD expects policy uncertainty to affect businesses and households, leading to reduced capital investment and lower spending on durable goods. Benefits and Pensions Monitor
• Global uncertainties surrounding U.S.-China trade tensions and recession fears continue to weigh on investor sentiment. Groww
• The UK Government is committing its political capital to economic growth and attracting investment, but global economic challenges and a fraught geopolitical climate risk exposing London and its competitor cities to a turbulent 2025. London Property Alliance
• US exceptionalism will bring challenges to global markets, as resulting US dollar strength could exacerbate inflationary pressures worldwide and disrupt capital and investment flows to emerging markets. ICDM

Last updated: 30 March 2025