[New] Xi's speeches, government white papers, and other sources leave little doubt that Beijing is striving for a world-class military that can project power globally and for Chinese dominance of the high-tech industries that generate economic and military power.
SpringerLink
[New] Kroenig and Negrea call for the USA to engage in a military buildup that will yield strategic nuclear superiority relative to China (and Russia) and the capacity to sink the entire PLA Navy in seventy-two hours.
SpringerLink
[New] For the first time in the history of modern U.S. defence strategy documents, China is identified not merely as a strategic competitor, but as a pacing threat - a threat that defines the tempo, scale, and very nature of U.S. military planning.
Modern Diplomacy
[New] Future U.S. military activities will be framed primarily in response to China's patterns of escalation, with China serving as the benchmark against which Washington calibrates its strategic and operational responses.
Modern Diplomacy
[New] China will likely accelerate hardening programs for critical military nodes while developing counter-EMP tactics, including decoy swarms and hardened drone variants, creating an action-reaction cycle in electromagnetic warfare capabilities.
Drone Warfare
[New] Electromagnetic pulse weapons represent a critical asymmetric vulnerability for the PLA's informatized warfare doctrine, potentially neutralizing China's drone swarm capabilities and exposing unhardened civilian-military fusion infrastructure to paralyzing strikes in a Taiwan contingency.
Drone Warfare
[New] Predictive Analysis: Taiwan will likely accelerate production timelines and increase procurement targets following continued Chinese military exercises, potentially reaching 500,000+ annual production by 2028 if political gridlock breaks.
Drone Warfare
[New] Outcome: By early 2026, the Philippines, Croatia, and UK will advance military drone technologies, adding unmanned systems to naval and air force capabilities as part of a growing global trend.
Drone Warfare
[New] Other Central European NATO members will likely adopt similar 'train the trainer' programs, creating regional standardization opportunities and potentially joint procurement of FPV systems optimized for military use. / Croatia
Drone Warfare
[New] Titan Dynamics' $9M seed funding and emphasis on 'mobile sUAS factories' and 'auto-generating UAS software' suggests a strategic pivot toward rapid, decentralized drone production capabilities that could significantly compress the design-to-deployment timeline for U.S. military unmanned systems.
Drone Warfare
[New] Ukraine plans to make 7 million military drones in 2026.
Euromaidan Press
[New] The Pentagon said it consolidated policies around protecting American military facilities from drone threats after unclear guidance that left base commanders scrambling on how to respond and years of increased unmanned aerial system sightings over key Defense Department assets.
DefenseScoop
[New] Particularly with U.S. and Chinese military platforms now frequently operating near each other in the South China Sea, East China Sea, and Taiwan Strait, there are real risks of incidents, intended or otherwise, that could trigger rapid escalation.
Brookings
[New] Trump and Xi could instruct their militaries to make meaningful progress in risk reduction, including by regularizing military-military channels at the strategic, theater, and operational levels to mitigate risks of escalatory spirals.
Brookings
[New] In the Western Hemisphere, U.S. military operations against transnational criminal groups could escalate into direct action in Venezuela.
Infotag
[New] Wealth Management Investors Evaluate Developments in Venezuela The U.S. military intervention in Venezuela introduces political, operational and economic uncertainty that could influence markets over time.
Morgan Stanley
[New] There is concern that Iran could launch a pre-emptive strike, with reports that China has airlifted a significant amount of advanced military equipment to Iran in recent days.
DailyForex
[New] Iran could respond to potential US military action by threatening US naval assets and obstructing international shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Critical Threats
[New] Iranian authorities have signalled that they are ready to defend their country as the United States continues to threaten a military attack, amid regional diplomatic efforts to avoid a new conflict.
Al Jazeera
[New] Should Trump put troops on the ground in Venezuela to topple President Nicolas Maduro, the U.S. could get trapped in an escalating military engagement that would be unpopular at home.
ICMGLT
[New] The Russian military launched new Oreshnik missile strikes to threaten the West.
Politsturm
[New] With the increasing exhaustion of Pact military forces, logistical troubles, as well as the withdrawal of US forces in December, China carried out a successful counter-offensive in the winter of 2030, pushing Russian forces out of Jiamusi.
Future
[New] The Russian General Staff is reportedly creating a new drone brigade that will incorporate a large variety of unmanned systems, likely as part of wider efforts to centralize drone units in the Russian military.
Critical Threats
Last updated: 01 February 2026
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