Global Scans · Military · Weekly Summary

• [New] As the humanitarian crisis intensifies, global military spending continues to soar, projected to more than double - from $2.7 trillion in 2024 to an astonishing $6.6 trillion by 2035 - if current trends persist. United Nations
• [New] Israel will presumably make dismantling Hamas's military infrastructure and demilitarizing Gaza a prerequisite for reconstruction, while other actors will emphasize the importance of a clear political horizon to build public trust and foster disengagement. The Washington Institute
• [New] A third is escalation, financial, legal, or military, into territory that carries systemic risk far beyond Ukraine. Telegraph Online
• [New] With Taiwan's ruling pro-independence party likely weakened after local election setbacks in early 2026, Beijing could achieve significant gains without military escalation. The Parliament Magazine
• [New] Europe's hopes of a return to growth in 2026 now depend on Germany's €1 tn debt funded spending drive on infrastructure and defence - a douse of military Keynesianism. Counterfire
• [New] If Europe sustains military support for Ukraine and tightens economic pressure, the incentive structure for President Putin could shift. The New Federalist
• [New] The high volume of aerial activity that it has normalized around Taiwan since Lai's inauguration makes it difficult for Taiwan to detect and promptly respond to real military threats when they appear. American Enterprise Institute - AEI
• [New] A third and final scenario envisages a strong EU defence that does not rely on NATO for access to military capabilities and structures. Rand Corporation
• [New] Whichever path India chooses will determine its military procurement trajectory over the next three decades. Hudson Institute
• [New] The Asia Pacific region is expected to grow significantly, driven by military modernization efforts in countries like China and India. ReAnIn
• [New] Licensing delays on Starship could affect the Artemis III lunar landing timetable as well as SpaceX's Starlink maturity for both commercial and military use. NTP Events
• [New] The U.S. Administration's decision on whether to take decisive military action in Venezuela will powerfully shape the trajectory of not only Venezuela, but the entire region. IndraStra Global
• [New] Beijing threatened to block exports of rare earths for military purposes. ABN AMRO Bank
• [New] Iran could gain the most from a Pakistan-style military cooperation relationship with China, potentially encompassing all categories of weapons, command-and-control capabilities, intelligence systems, joint research and development activities, co-production, and so forth. The Washington Institute
• [New] The United States would benefit from a deeper understanding of military and dual-use dealings between Iran, Russia, and China - not just to assess their current scope and future threat potential, but also to diligently monitor, dissuade, and disrupt them when necessary. The Washington Institute
• [New] Further military deployments within the United States could grow in size and scope. World Socialist Web Site
• [New] The culmination of years-long regional hostilities, the two-week war saw Israel devastate Iran's military capabilities and come close to weakening the Iranian regime to what some feared might be the point of collapse-all without substantial U.S. involvement. Default
• [New] East-asia enters 2026 as the region of maximum geopolitical tension and military escalation risk. Foreign Affairs Forum
• [New] India's economy and military surpass Pakistan's, and New Delhi maintains significant global influence - including a growing strategic partnership with the United States that will not be sacrificed for Pakistan's benefit. One World Outlook
• [New] The US is not the only country that might come to Taiwan's aid: Japan's new prime minister recently enraged Beijing by suggesting a Taiwan crisis would be a survival threatening situation for Japan, meaning it would have legal justification to deploy its military. Vox
• [New] Military spending on AI could exceed $30bn by 2028, with the United States and China leading the way. CIDOB
• [New] Procurement will play a decisive role in how effectively Europe translates today's political momentum into real military capability over the coming years. Defence Industry Europe
• China's historic military buildup includes rapid expansion of nuclear forces, hypersonic weapons, long-range missiles, cyber warfare units and space capabilities - developments the Pentagon says now place the US homeland at growing risk. New York Post

Last updated: 04 January 2026