Global Scans · Coronavirus · Weekly Summary

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Future potential spread of the coronavirus is impacting world trade and threatens a global economic recession and inflection point. For the first time, Illness is now a major driving force. We first reported this virus way back in 2010 and regularly since July 2015 as a predictable surprise: a known unknown to most. It is not a Black Swan; it was foreseen! Forewarned is forearmed and forearmed is protection against unpleasant possibilities and this inflection point will most likely change everyone's future profoundly.

Here are some actions you could take offered by and our friends at WavePoint and BCG and McKinsey.

Companies are asking people to work from home (we have always worked from our homes since 2003). We think the latter will become a long-term and rapidly growing trend as people reduce traveling time, buy more online, and increasingly recognize the benefits to their health of staying home. More emerging, potential behavioral trends here. Begin regularly evaluating predictable surprises, be prepared and act in time, while others lose their shirt through inattention to the future.

• [New] The decrease in the global tourism industry due to the Covid-19 pandemic could result in a loss of US$ 2 trillion in world GDP, and the loss of 174 million jobs, if travel restrictions remain in place. ITIC - Industry Recovery Roadmap
• [New] A Markov cohort model was used to estimate COVID-19 related direct medical costs and deaths in the United States, With the most optimistic projections, a 60% efficacious COVID-19 vaccine can prevent 31% of expected COVID-19 deaths in the United States versus no vaccines. PubMed Central (PMC)
• [New] Telehealth services helped provide necessary care to patients while minimizing the transmission risk of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, to health care personnel and patients in the United States and abroad. PubMed Central (PMC)
• [New] While Bangladesh recovered strongly from the COVID-19 pandemic, post-pandemic recovery was hindered by rising inflation, a persistent balance of payments deficit, financial sector vulnerabilities, and global economic uncertainty. World Bank
• [New] Bangladesh's economy made a strong turnaround from the COVID-19 pandemic, but the post-pandemic recovery continues to be disrupted by high inflation, a persistent balance of payments deficit, financial sector vulnerabilities, and global economic uncertainty. World Bank
• The World Health Organization has announced the highest level of global readiness and has imposed challenges and restrictions as a result of threats and risks to deny the transmission of COVID-19 infection. PubMed Central (PMC)
• The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is likely to enhance the risk of addictive social media use (SMU) as people spend more time online maintaining connectivity when face-to-face communication is limited. PubMed Central (PMC)
• Although both China and India have shown eminent response to tackle the ongoing pandemic, the food supply chain remains vastly exposed to significant COVID-19 risks. PubMed Central (PMC)
• China has been stockpiling more food in the aftermath of supply chain disruptions from the coronavirus pandemic and the Ukraine war. TradingView
• The previous announcements of the UK leaving the EU and subsequent transition period, along with the impact of the coronavirus pandemic and resulting supply chain disruption, have caused higher levels of volatility in international road freight statistics over the past 5 years. GOV.UK
• The number of UK-registered nurses moving to other countries doubled in just one year between 2021-22 and 2022-23 to a record potential 12,400 and has soared fourfold since before the coronavirus pandemic. The Guardian
• Each significant disruption in recent times, from the COVID-19 pandemic to the Russia-Ukraine war, has triggered severe shortages, compelling governments to strengthen supply chains through a mix of policies, incentives, and orders. Deloitte Insights
• 10 of the Fed's 19 officials still see the policy rate falling by at least three-quarters of a percentage point by the end of 2024, a median view first set in December and maintained despite recent stronger-than-expected inflation. Nikkei Asia
• While the economies of mass-scale production and logistics that sustain and supply traditional chain store or conglomerate grocers like Walmart and Dollar General are often deemed efficient, the Covid-19 pandemic revealed their underlying fragility and susceptibility to supply chain disruption. Modern Farmer
• The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on global supply chains, nearly 75% of U.S. companies experiencing a supply chain disruption. Cash Flow Inventory
• The flattening of drug death rates could provide a rare glimmer of hope amid the bleak U.S. drug crisis, which has seen overdose rates rise inexorably for the past two decades and especially during the Covid-19 pandemic. STAT
• Installing 60 GW of offshore wind by 2030 would require increasing the yearly deployment rate by a factor of 5 × between 2024 and 2030, at a time when supply chains are increasingly constrained due to the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic and rising global demand. The Telegraph
• A major challenge for the Space Development Agency has been ensuring timely deliveries from suppliers amid lingering supply chain disruptions stemming from the Covid-19 pandemic. SpaceNews
• The IMF calculated that 10 countries are in debt distress and 26 countries are at high risk, meaning that 36 or 19% of the number of IMF members are in debt risk. nationthailand
• Since the COVID-19 pandemic - which has widened pre-existing inequality gaps, including gender inequality, and reversed progress on sustainable development - it is now estimated that it will take the world 286 years to achieve gender equality. World Health Organization: WHO
• Is hard for policymakers to focus enough attention on climate mitigation and adaptation when they must also respond to wars in Europe and the Middle East, the Covid pandemic, political polarization, and the recurrent threat of economic turmoil. World Literature Today
• Following a prolonged period of supply chain disruption stemming from the covid pandemic, a new and withering price war has resulted as major importers like Brazil have pivoted away from expensive Bolivian supplies to cheaper liquefied natural gas from the United States and Middle East. The Week

Last updated: 14 April 2024