Global Scans · Recession · Weekly Summary

• [New] The US ended the fiscal year of 2025 with a lower deficit-to-GDP ratio than the year before and sounded an optimistic note for 2026, noting that the US is on its way to lowering deficits without causing a recession. Yahoo Finance
• [New] Concerns about a potential U.S. recession are increasing, with 46.8% of respondents expecting one within the next six months. Hotel News Resource
• [New] The OECD's estimate of potential 1.3% GDP contraction in 2025 and 0.6% in 2026 represents the most severe downside scenario, highlighting material recession probability. Medium
• [New] New Zealand faces double-dip recession risks after Q2 GDP contracted year-on-year, prompting expectations for accommodative monetary policy. Plus500
• [New] With global recession odds at 60% (J.P. Morgan), many SMEs face a reckoning: Repay or risk audits. Immigration News Canada
• [New] In contrast, Capital Economics said, the New Zealand economy remains mired in a deep slump, and we believe that it will be some time before growth returns to trend. Australian Broadcasting Corporation
• [New] No one is certain if Russia's economy will enter a recession in 2025. Forbes
• [New] Japan has signed a trade deal with the US, helping policymakers become increasingly confident that the impact of tariffs will not push Japan into recession. investing.com
• A much lower-than-expected figure could lead to a perception that the risk of a recession in the US economy has re-emerged. Darkex Official Academy Area
• A soft landing scenario, where central bank actions successfully stabilize economies without triggering a deep recession, could see a gradual rebound in industrial and energy commodity demand by late 2026. The Chronicle-Journal
• Trade war risk is fading with just 12% of investors saying 'trade war triggering global recession' is the biggest tail risk (down from #1 spot at 29% in August). TKer by Sam Ro
• With recession fears fading, markets have scaled back expectations for an ECB rate cut in 2025. BIL Investment Insights
• The U.S. economy is showing high warning signs, with UBS saying recession risk is very strong in 2025. Economic Times
• A Morning Consult survey found that 60% of Americans blame Trump's policies for rising living costs, with 75% fearing a recession. Ainvest
• Midway through 2025, a disconnect between hard economic data, such as retail sales and industrial production, and soft sentiment indicators suggests that while risk of recession has risen, a severe downturn is by no means guaranteed in 2025. Control System Integrators Association
• Already, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has toned down some of its signaling around future rate hikes as U.S. recession risks and jittery financial markets cloud the economic outlook. The Asahi Shimbun
• Mexico's GDP will expand by 0.8% in 2025, double the 0.4% growth forecast issued in June, and far stronger than its March projection of a 1.3% contraction, which anticipated a recession. Mexico Business
• With the Fed likely to signal more easing ahead, and near-term recession risk seemingly low, the backdrop for stocks remains constructive. ACH Investment Group, Inc
• Economic Gamble at 15% Rates: Brazil's Selic hold signals deeper troubles with 5.13% inflation, slowing GDP to 1.6-2.2%, and high real rates of 9.51% amid low savings and government debt service at 7.6% of GDP, risking recession while U.S. tariffs add pressures; markets expect no cuts until 2026. The Rio Times
• Housing Slump Ripples Through Manufacturing Economy Air-conditioner manufacturer Carrier and plumbing product distributor Core & Main warned of a steep whipsaw in residential demand. Edge and Odds -
• Trump's tariff threats - potentially up to 30% on E.U. imports-may tip Europe into recession by late 2025, some analysts say. Fortune
• Despite last week's US Dollar strength, the broader trend for 2025 remains bearish and fear of economic recession remains elevated. / USA TIOmarkets
• The US tariff mania can set off a spiral that has the potential to drag countries into recession and cause massive damage worldwide. Fazit Communication GmbH

Last updated: 15 October 2025