Global Scans · Recession · Weekly Summary

• Without a major pop, 2026 will be figuratively flaccid - high inflation, high unemployment, very slow growth - while narrowly avoiding a full-blown recession. Media War & Peace
• There will be a 1% decline in the world GDP by 2050, where low-income nations face a slump by 5-7%, leading to 100-200 trillion dollars of loss. PubMed Central (PMC)
• If AI begins to displace white-collar labour at scale, consumer confidence could crack further, tipping the US into a shallow recession by mid-year. MarketPulse
• Energy prices, China's growth trajectory, and the global demand outlook will influence inflation dynamics, while the risk of recession versus a soft landing will shape overall risk appetite. investing.com
• Many of China's other large developers have already defaulted, and a Vanke collapse would raise questions about how policymakers plan to address the real-estate slump as it drags on into a sixth year in 2026. McAlvany Financial Group
• Most forecasters expect Canada's real GDP to grow roughly one to 1.5% in 2026 - below its long-run trend, but well short of a recession. Yahoo Finance Canada
• If a mild recession materializes in 2026 (as some economists warn, given the lagged impact of rate hikes), small business revenues could falter, paradoxically making banks less likely to lend even as borrowing costs improve. Malota Studio
• With a high-interest-rate environment quickly imposed on Canadians to tame surging post-pandemic inflation, a mild recession was expected in the second half of 2025, but it has not materialized. True North Mortgage
• In 2026, the pressure from economic instability, national pressures, and resource constraints will drive a 'security tool recession'- fewer siloed tools, deeper integrations, and stronger ROI expectations. Best Information Security SIEM Tools, Software, Solutio
• Even in a US recession scenario, downside risks are mitigated by the long duration profile of the asset class which benefits from falling Treasury yields. US Institutional
• Strategic positioning emphasizes defensive sectors like Healthcare, small-cap equities, and AI-driven industries, as J.P. Morgan warns of a 40% recession risk in late 2025. Ainvest
• The combination of declining investment and a large loss in household wealth could tip the US economy into recession. American Enterprise Institute - AEI
• Global risks (like China's slump) could keep U.S. rates lower for longer, potentially boosting housing demand. BRAZOBAN.com
• If the U.S. slows down more than expected, there's a chance of a mild recession that could ripple across the world. Morgan Stanley
• GDP was expected to decline 3% in seven months, job losses in the auto sector would top 100,000, inflation would tick up over 3% and Canada would be mired in a recession. Yahoo News Canada
• While the U.S. economy has proven remarkably resilient, the risk of recession has not gone away. Bankrate.com
• Deloitte's baseline scenario even predicts accelerating inflation through late 2026, potentially prompting the Fed to raise interest rates modestly in the second half of 2026, leading to a recession by Q4 2026. The Chronicle-Journal
• The scenario of a mild recession in the U.S. could adversely affect growth elsewhere, including Europe, Japan and China. Morgan Stanley
• Alternative scenarios include stronger-than-expected demand in the U.S., surprising AI productivity gains - or a mild recession. Morgan Stanley
• The lack of momentum, combined with subdued business investment and cautious consumer spending, has raised concerns about the potential for the U.K. economy to slip closer to recession. Gooner Daily
• Russia has been in a technical recession for six months and faces systemic risks inside its banking sector. Economic Times

Last updated: 07 January 2026