Global Scans · Recession · Weekly Summary

• [New] If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, we could see oil prices test the $150 mark, potentially pushing the U.S. into a stagflationary recession - where inflation remains high while growth finally stalls. FinancialContent
• [New] The pessimistic scenario involves a demand shock, where the combination of high prices and sustained high interest rates eventually breaks the back of the US consumer, leading to a contraction in new orders and a potential manufacturing recession by 2027. FinancialContent
• [New] The risk of a 2026 recession, which seemed remote just a few months ago, is certainly higher today for America, and much higher for Europe and Asia. Bartlett Website
• [New] Global recession risks may hinge on whether the Strait of Hormuz gets reopened for transit over the next month. Seeking Alpha
• [New] If the Fed remains hawkish while earnings growth decelerates, the 30% recession probability could quickly become a reality. FinancialContent
• [New] Energy's outperformance amid the oil shock aids S&P 500 breadth, but sustained high prices threaten recession risks, now elevated for the U.S. and sharply higher for Europe and Asia. S&P 500 Nears Correction Territory Amid Oil Shock and S
• [New] Executives from Chevron and Shell have both indicated that physical dislocations are intensifying, reinforcing concerns that recession risks are rising. SWBC
• [New] If current pressures like energy shocks and slowing job growth intensify, a US recession could begin within the next 6 to 12 months. Economic Times
• [New] Recession fears are back in focus, with economists now putting US recession 2026 risk near 40%. Economic Times
• [New] The looming threat to Europe's energy supplies could lead to prolonged global economic recession if oil hits $150 a barrel. The Guardian
• [New] A global recession in 2026 or 2027 could see aluminum prices retreat, squeezing margins. The Chronicle-Journal
• [New] BCA Research, which has leaned more bearish on the US economy and markets for the past year, said it was raising its expected 12-month recession probability in the US to 40%. Business Insider
• [New] Investors fearing an extended Middle East conflict that invites inflation and, possibly, recession tend to trim their more volatile assets, including bitcoin and ethereum. Yahoo Finance
• [New] If the Fed raises rates into a slowing economy to combat energy-driven inflation, they risk turning a controlled slowdown into a deep recession. FinancialContent
• [New] Major financial institutions reacted with swift pessimism; the S&P 500 underwent a 7.3% correction in the final weeks of March as investors priced in the risk of a domestic recession. FinancialContent
• [New] Every day tankers, carriers, and freighters can not pass due to threats of Iranian drone, missile, mine, and autonomous-boat attacks, the global economy tilts closer to a serious recession and resurgent inflation. investing.com
• [New] The US will enter a recession within the next three years, up from 46% one year ago. Goldman Sachs Asset Management
• [New] If the price of oil continues to rise, it could trigger a steep and stark global recession. The Week
• [New] Goldman SachsGS - forecasts supportive conditions via 50 bps Fed cuts and 12.8% ETF gains, while J.P. Morgan warns of demand slowdown risks from tariffs and recession threats. Ainvest
• [New] A prolonged disruption would push euro-zone inflation to 6.3% and trigger a brief recession. gCaptain
• [New] While JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its peers might typically benefit from higher interest rates, the threat of a consumer-led recession looms large. The Chronicle-Journal

Last updated: 08 April 2026