[New] In a downside scenario, policy errors, coupled with a major drop in artificial intelligence capex investment, could push the US into a relatively deep recession, while in the most bullish outcome, trade wars end and AI capex investment continues to increase.
TrustNet
[New] CEOs in the U.S. said uncertainty was their top economic concern, with 43% ranking that the biggest threat in 2026, followed by 35% who cited the risk of a downturn or recession.
HR Dive
[New] BCA estimates a 38% probability of a major supply shock, warning of spillovers to global markets, bond yields, and recession risk.
Sahm
[New] The confluence of the 18-year real estate cycle peak, unprecedented commercial mortgage maturities, elevated consumer debt stress, widespread retail contraction, and depleted household savings creates meaningful recession risk for 2026-2028.
Medium
[New] Based on comprehensive analysis of converging risk factors, the recession risk for 2026-2028 rates 42 out of 100 - indicating elevated but not inevitable downturn probability.
Medium
[New] Deloitte analysts predict economic growth of just 1.4% in 2026 - not technically a recession, but hardly robust expansion. / USA
Medium
[New] Perhaps the most immediate recession risk factor facing the US economy involves the unprecedented wave of commercial real estate debt maturing in 2026 - $930 billion in loans coming due, representing nearly triple the 20-year average of $350 billion annually.
Medium
[New] Economists around the world are expecting muted U.S. economic growth in coming quarters, and some indicators suggest a mild recession is a possibility.
WTOP News
[New] A full-scale trade conflict between the United States and Europe would sharply raise recession risks.
investing.com
[New] Even the most bearish firm - BCA Research, which warns of a potential US recession - stays neutral on stocks for now on the tailwind of AI's huge capital expenditure.
Bloomberg
[New] The U.S. will avoid a recession in 2026, due to government spending from the One Big Beautiful Bill and increased investment in artificial intelligence.
Yahoo Finance
[New] While JPMorgan Chase & Co. typically benefits from higher interest margins, the threat of a 2026 recession - which J.P. Morgan's own research team now puts at a 35% probability - could lead to a spike in credit losses.
Observer News Enterprise
There is a 35% chance America and the world will enter a recession in 2026.
GBH
Most economists do not expect the U.S. economy will enter a recession in 2026.
Nasdaq
Recession risk is rising in 2026, making a defensive portfolio shift a smart way to manage downside without abandoning opportunity.
Yahoo Finance
A potential risk remains in the form of a global recession that could dampen commodity demand, though the green nature of current demand provides a sturdier floor than in previous cycles.
The Chronicle-Journal
The wide-ranging tariffs introduced in 2026 by the federal government could threaten worldwide economic growth and contribute to continued worries of a recession here in the US.
PCBB
US recession fears and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve prompted dollar-selling, while a flight to quality pushed investors to seek out gold and high-quality sovereign bonds.
KrASIA
In the United States, CEOs have a bigger headache: their top worry is uncertainty Uncertainty is US CEOs' top economic concern for 2026: Among CEOs in the US, 43% rank uncertainty as a top threat, followed by 35% citing the risk of a downturn/recession.
The Conference Board
With Beijing looking to exports to counteract a prolonged property slump and sluggish domestic demand, the record surplus risks further unsettling economies concerned about China's trade practices and overcapacity, as well as their own over-reliance on key Chinese products.
The Guardian
Global economic volatility - if a recession or financial crisis emerges - could hit consumer confidence and employment, curbing housing demand.
The Real Estate Institute of Canada
Analysts at Deutsche Bank have even gone as far as suggesting that the U.S. economy might already be close to a recession if not for tech spending.
Bankrate.com
Republican lawmakers warn of political backlash as trade policies risk recession, with bipartisan pushback likely to curb Trump's protectionist agenda.
Ainvest
Last updated: 28 January 2026
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