Global Scans · Recession · Weekly Summary

• [New] If the Middle East crisis is resolved by the end of April, the global economy will most likely skirt recession. MMA Group at LPL Financial
• [New] Economists have warned that, should oil prices top $150 per barrel, the UK economy would plunge into a recession. City AM
• [New] Gulf economies could slip into recession in 2026, shrinking by 2% to 5%, with Qatar and Kuwait being the most vulnerable due to their dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. Global Finance Magazine
• [New] The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has left the world facing another energy crisis and warning bells of a global recession are growing increasingly shrill. Top1000Funds.com
• [New] The OECD's core conclusion for the UK is captured in its March report: growth of 0.5% in 2026, inflation of 4%, and a warning that energy-intensive economies face high risks of technical recession if the maritime blockade persists through the summer refill season. US Recession News
• [New] Several key U.S. economic indicators continue to show more resilience than would typically be expected ahead of an imminent recession. Prudent Investors
• [New] At one point in the fall, a Bloomberg model projected a 100% risk of a US recession over the next 12 months. CNN
• [New] The US economy is under strain, and the oil price shock could tip it over into recession. CNN
• [New] US recession warning 2026: Fears of a US recession are escalating as Moody's Analytics forecasts a 49% chance of a downturn within a year, a figure potentially rising above 50% due to the Iran war's impact on oil prices. Economic Times
• If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, we could see oil prices test the $150 mark, potentially pushing the U.S. into a stagflationary recession - where inflation remains high while growth finally stalls. FinancialContent
• The pessimistic scenario involves a demand shock, where the combination of high prices and sustained high interest rates eventually breaks the back of the US consumer, leading to a contraction in new orders and a potential manufacturing recession by 2027. FinancialContent
• The risk of a 2026 recession, which seemed remote just a few months ago, is certainly higher today for America, and much higher for Europe and Asia. Bartlett Website
• Global recession risks may hinge on whether the Strait of Hormuz gets reopened for transit over the next month. Seeking Alpha
• If the Fed remains hawkish while earnings growth decelerates, the 30% recession probability could quickly become a reality. FinancialContent
• Energy's outperformance amid the oil shock aids S&P 500 breadth, but sustained high prices threaten recession risks, now elevated for the U.S. and sharply higher for Europe and Asia. S&P 500 Nears Correction Territory Amid Oil Shock and S
• Executives from Chevron and Shell have both indicated that physical dislocations are intensifying, reinforcing concerns that recession risks are rising. SWBC
• If current pressures like energy shocks and slowing job growth intensify, a US recession could begin within the next 6 to 12 months. Economic Times
• Recession fears are back in focus, with economists now putting US recession 2026 risk near 40%. Economic Times
• The looming threat to Europe's energy supplies could lead to prolonged global economic recession if oil hits $150 a barrel. The Guardian
• A global recession in 2026 or 2027 could see aluminum prices retreat, squeezing margins. The Chronicle-Journal

Last updated: 15 April 2026