Recession

• [New] Britain is climbing out of the deepest recession in well over a century and the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast late last year that UK GDP would grow by 5.5% in 2021, but not return to pre-pandemic output level until 2022.
• [New] Demand for U.S. barrels will depend on how well the global economy fares in the coming years after its deepest recession since World War II.
• [New] Indonesia's economic growth is expected to rebound in 2021 after it fell in 2020 into its first recession since the 1998 Asian financial crisis, but the coronavirus pandemic will continue to dampen economic activities.
• [New] Sub-Saharan Africa is forecast to experience economic growth of 2.7% in 2021 as it rebounds from its first recession in 25 years.
• [New] In the best scenario, the ASEAN economy would contract by 2.7% in 2020, and will only grow by three to four per cent in 2021 when global growth is expected to be about three per cent.
• [New] Nigeria will likely exit recession by Q1 2021 amid the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic disrupting the financial markets.
• The economy of Sierra Leone was in recession in 2020, with GDP projected to have contracted by 3.1%.
• The economy of Poland was in recession in 2020, with GDP projected to have contracted by 3.6%.
• The economy of Mongolia was in recession in 2020, with GDP projected to have contracted by 2.0%.
• The economy of Micronesia was in recession in 2020, with GDP projected to have contracted by 3.8%.
• The economy of Mauritania was in recession in 2020, with GDP projected to have contracted by 3.2%.
• The economy of Mali was in recession in 2020, with GDP projected to have contracted by 2.0%.
• The economy of Haiti was in recession in 2020, with GDP projected to have contracted by 4.0%.
• The economy of Guinea-Bissau was in recession in 2020, with GDP projected to have contracted by 2.9%.
• The economy of Finland was in recession in 2020, with GDP projected to have contracted by 4.0%.
• The economy of Comoros was in recession in 2020, with GDP projected to have contracted by 1.8%.
• The economy of Cameroon was in recession in 2020, with GDP projected to have contracted by 2.8%.
• The economy of Belarus was in recession in 2020, with GDP projected to have contracted by 3.0%.
• The economy of Bahrain was in recession in 2020, with GDP projected to have contracted by 4.9%.
• The 11.3% slump in UK GDP forecast for 2020 will be even worse than the recession of 1921, when Britain's economy shrank almost 10% in the aftermath of the First World War and the Spanish flu epidemic.
• Hong Kong has plunged into a deep recession after its economy was hit by a double whammy of violent street protests and the US-China trade war.
• International Monetary Fund expects global growth to fall 4.4% in 2020, 0.5 ppts above their June projection as they are projecting a somewhat less severe though still deep recession in 2020.
• The UK will avoid plunging back into recession, pencilling in growth of 2.4% in the first quarter of 2021.

Last updated: 13 January 2021