Geopolitics

• [New] Many are hoping that when Trump - one of the most divisive US presidents in the past century or more - leaves office, the historically elevated levels of partisanship in US politics will at least begin to subside.
• [New] Other primary drivers of global geopolitical risk in 2021 include great power competition among the US, China, and Russia.
• [New] Some specific areas to watch in 2021 include the unpredictable future of Canada's minority government, Europe's continuing political dysfunction and simmering U.S.-China trade tensions.
• [New] 2021 will be a year marked by political change, especially in the U.S. where the incoming Biden Administration's plans for infrastructure spending, climate change mitigation, and cannabis deregulation could meaningfully impact a number of themes' trajectories.
• [New] The UN declared 2021-2030 the Decade on Ecosystem Restoration, signalling a strong political commitment to restoration for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals.
• [New] From the change in the US Administration to the rolling out of the COVID-19 vaccine, the social, economic, and political changes will continue to happen in 2021.
• [New] While the carbon border adjustment mechanism will face political and legal difficulties within the EU, it may prove difficult to implement and could be challenged at the WTO (where it already faces opposition from the US, China and Russia).
• From India banning TikTok, the US threatening to delist Chinese firms, to Australia creating supply chains around rare earth minerals that block out China, technology was at the forefront of global politics in 2020.
• The political structures of China will change considerably in the next few decades and will reveal the divergence between the open and closed elements of its society.
• Facebook Protect, a security monitoring platform offered to political officials during the 2020 US elections, will be offered to more people in 2021.
• Risks for 2021 - a year of lower tail risks and more predictability, but the potential risk of bubbles forming - Geopolitical risks will remain omnipresent, notably the China-US and China-RoW tensions.
• Since Joe Biden's victory in the US presidential elections, rival political factions in Iran have struggled over who might lead potential negotiations with Washington.
• The EU should seize the opportunity of U.S. interest in closer collaboration on China and offer a ten-point agenda for an EU-U.S. dialogue on China.
• In 2021, defense budgets and revenues for defense contractors are expected to remain largely stable, as military programs continue to be critical to national defense, especially when geopolitical tensions are considered.
• Other consequential political risks that shaped the global business environment in 2020 will continue to reverberate in 2021, including Brexit negotiations, US-China tensions and the US presidential election.
• Agility in decision-making, operations and strategy will be crucial for maintaining enterprise resilience as the world continues to deal with the fallout from COVID-19 and associated political risks in the year ahead.
• The economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic will continue to shape the diversity of European countries' relations with the United States and China in 2021.
• Television advertising will decline by 15.1% excluding US political advertising, before rebounding to grow 7.8% in 2021.
• Moscow expects Biden to spend the better part of the next four years mired in all-consuming domestic political battles, making any significant breakthroughs in the U.S.-Russian relationship impossible.
• Come 2030 a movement towards annexation of North America - especially by China and its Asian-Russian allies - could become a reality.
• The risk of another epidemic in China will remain heightened even as Beijing attempts to improve its public health system in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Trump's fifth column in both international institutions and at home may not disappear, but its weakening will open new space for Spain's foreign policy in key regions like Latin America and the Middle East and for key themes like multilateralism, regional cooperation, and climate change.

Last updated: 10 January 2021