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Geopolitics

[New] The political impulse to reshore production of drugs and PPE will be strong, particularly in the US, as the Trump administration ratchets up rhetorical pressure on China in the run-up to the 2020 election.
India is trying to seek an opportunity to stage a false flag against Pakistan for extending political and diplomatic support to the people of Indian Occupied Kashmir.
With a few exceptions, they agree that the EU needs to restrict Chinese investments in strategic sectors, underlining their growing wariness of overdependence and exposure to the political and economic risks emanating from Beijing.
Feckless US policy in Iran, Iraq, and Syria will drive regional risk in 2020, to the detriment of the regional political and economic order.
Beginning next week, Myanmar political parties and candidates in the Southeast Asian nation will vie for the national and regional leadership in what is anticipated to be a hotly contested campaign complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic, as all elections are in 2020.
Scepticism of US intentions extends across the Iranian political spectrum, and a Biden administration would have limited time to deal with Rouhani's government before the next Iranian presidential election, slated for mid-2021.
An escalation in the US-Iran rivalry and political instability in Iraq have provided ISIS with the opportunity to start making a comeback.
Kabulov makes clear that Russia continues to support the Taliban's military efforts against Afghan government forces (with whom US forces embed) to give them a favorable position in political negotiations, not even pretending to hide their support for attacks that will target American soldiers.
Recent bilateral political tensions and trade conflict, and disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic, have underscored the dangers of U.S. over-dependence.
DJI faces mounting political pressure in the United States, one of the world's biggest drone markets where the Trump Administration has pursued an aggressive campaign against Chinese companies; contending they pose a security risk.
Milan-listed banks were the hardest hit on worries the year-old Italian coalition government might collapse after sparring between the two main political parties and that a new election could take place too late for a new administration to approve a 2020 budget.
Australia has in recent years awoken to the threat of Chinese interference in its domestic politics, updating its defense strategy and force structure plan in 2020 to reflect growing concerns about China.
Political developments in Hong Kong and Taiwan in 2020 will shape views of China as a global leader and business partner.
The year 2019 will be remembered for several significant developments in East Asia's political economy, particularly the prolonged trade war between the US and China and mass and violent protests in Hong Kong.
Political analysts around the world are questioning whether the conflict between Myanmar's Tatmadaw, and the Arakan Army (AA) - a well-trained and equipped guerrilla force which enjoys sweeping support and has inflicted serious casualties - is becoming a powerful national threat.
The economic impact of COVID-19 will negatively affect political instability, international relations, conflict, civil rights and violence, undoing many years of socio-economic development.
Even if the Trump administration is currently unlikely to support an international effort to distribute drugs, other advanced countries acting together could create the political pressure to bring the United States in.
Political advertising is still expected to provide a substantial boost, and live sports could return in force in H2 2020, with some sports leagues endeavoring to pick up where they left off rather than abandon their seasons entirely.
Excluding political advertising in the U.S., GroupM anticipates total television advertising to decline by 17.6% in 2020 before rebounding slightly next year.
Sudan is at risk of relapsing back into political instability and potential conflict, only a year after long-time ruler Omar al-Bashir was removed from power.
Excluding political advertising, growth is predicted to be mostly flat in 2019 at -0.2%, with a decline of -2.3% in nonpolitical television advertising for 2020.
Political tensions are expected to rise ahead of presidential and legislative elections in Iran, Israel, Jordan and Kuwait in 2020.
Looking at larger markets, GroupM expects a 0.9% decline in the US, including political advertising, and growth of 9.2% for China next year.

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Last updated: 27 September 2020