Our Scans · (FS.1.00) Investment Banking · Weekly Summary

• [New] Retail access remains restricted, with the Bank of Russia continuing to warn against direct crypto investment and planning further test regimes limited to certain categories of investors. Hogan Lovells
• [New] In summary, Goldman Sachs continues to expect Brent crude to average around $ 60/bbl in Q4 if geopolitical tensions remain contained. Polyestertime
• [New] Goldman Sachs has flagged the potential for a sharp rise in Brent crude oil prices, forecasting a possible short-term spike to just over $90 per barrel. Polyestertime
• [New] McKinsey predicted that by 2030, 30% of current U.S. jobs could be automated; Goldman Sachs projected that up to 50% of jobs could be fully automated by 2045, driven by generative AI and robotics. Fortune
• [New] Job Displacement and Creation: A Goldman Sachs report estimates that generative AI could affect approximately 300 million jobs globally over the next decade, with up to 50% of workloads in vulnerable professions being automated. UNBOXED AI
• [New] Financial Services Evolution: Allianz and Deutsche Bank represent traditional financial strength, but face challenges from fintech disruption and low interest rate environments. Axis Intelligence
• [New] With access to IBM's comprehensive offerings, including the innovative watsonx AI and automation portfolio, Deutsche Bank will be able to analyze its data more deeply, simplify complex business processes, and drive IT automation. Planet Mainframe
• [New] Net exports may still contribute positively to GDP growth, but UBS expects China's exports to fall sharply in 2026, bearing down on manufacturing capex and prices. Fibre2Fashion
• [New] US big banks, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo have held discussions on potentially launching a stablecoin that will improve transaction speeds whilst managing competition from encroaching crypto firms. FinExtra
• [New] JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Deutsche Bank all maintain quantum teams betting that a few hundred mid-fidelity qubits could hand them an edge in asset allocation and fraud detection well before the million-qubit era. Interesting Engineering
• Big banks like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs are launching crypto products, and the U.S. government is laying the groundwork for regulations that will support the growing digital asset economy. FinExtra
• Morgan Stanley's cost analysis reveals a compelling trajectory: current-generation Waymo vehicles cost over $120,000, but upcoming models could drop to $85,000, with Goldman Sachs projecting specialized robotaxi vehicles reaching $50,000 by 2030. The AV Market Strategist
• Industry analysts now expect China to achieve near-total AI self-sufficiency within five years, with the sector projected to reach $1.4 trillion by 2030, and Morgan Stanley warning that the assumption China cannot make AI chips is clearly wrong. Nucamp Bootcamp
• UBS expects China's GDP growth to slow to 4% this year and 3% in 2026 under the baseline scenario, assuming that the US hikes tariffs on China's exports in September and China raises policy support in response. Fibre2Fashion
• The risk that space debris represents keeps increasing operational costs, potentially stalling the rapid growth expected in the space sector, which companies like Morgan Stanley project to reach trillions of dollars in coming decades. OpenTools
• The World Bank is the latest body to cut its growth forecast as a result of Trump's erratic trade policies, although US officials insist the negative consequences will be offset by a surge in investment and still-to-be approved tax cuts. AsiaOne
• Citigroup expects an uptick in banking and trading revenue this quarter, despite mounting uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs. PAN Finance
• HSBC is closing its international payments app Zing, potentially leading to around 400 job losses, and initiating a new round of job cuts in its investment bank, with layoffs expected to begin in Asia and extend globally. India Employer Forum
• The Reserve Bank of Australia's indication of a rate cut to 3.35% improved consumer confidence, while a recent trade deal with the U.S. promised an influx of $240 billion in investments by 2035. Day Hagan Asset Management
• Specifically on U.S. shale, Goldman Sachs analysts noted that the lower oil prices it predicts for the remainder of 2025 and 2026 - on the back of a near-term supply surplus - may lead to an earlier and lower peak in the production patch. Forbes
• The Reserve Bank of India has proposed new guidelines for investments by regulated entities in Alternative Investment Funds, aiming to mitigate potential risks and prevent overexposure. FinancialExpress
• Announced at the International Investment Summit, the British Business Bank will establish the British Growth Partnership, encouraging more UK pension fund and other institutional investment into the UK's fastest growing, most innovative companies. British Business Bank
• Economists at Goldman Sachs speculated in 2023 that 300m jobs worldwide could be automated out of existence by 2030 as a result of the development of generative AI, with many more roles radically transformed. The Guardian

Last updated: 26 June 2025