Our Scans · (FS.1.00) Investment Banking · Weekly Summary

• [New] Goldman Sachs' Forecast: Volatility Amid Geopolitical RisksGoldman Sachs projects Brent crude oil prices will average $78 per barrel in 2025, peaking at $80 mid-year before declining to $73 by late 2026. NAGA
• [New] While the average targets for each sector could well be achieved within the next four years, the ambition of their targets varies from 33% on average for the global / investment banks to 41% for the UK banks. GOV.UK
• [New] Investors will watch closely to see if Goldman Sachs doubles down on global digital finance or attempts a new approach inside China's borders. Coinfomania
• [New] A Federal Reserve plan to relax leverage rules could free up $185 billion in capital and unlock $6 trillion in balance sheet capacity for large U.S. global banks according to Morgan Stanley. investing.com
• [New] Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are early adopters, reporting measurable improvements in risk forecasting and trade optimization. Blogger
• [New] Goldman Sachs expects OPEC + to complete a 0.41 million barrel per day increase in production in August, which will be the last planned adjustment to the current production strategy. InvestMacro
• Retail access remains restricted, with the Bank of Russia continuing to warn against direct crypto investment and planning further test regimes limited to certain categories of investors. Hogan Lovells
• In summary, Goldman Sachs continues to expect Brent crude to average around $ 60/bbl in Q4 if geopolitical tensions remain contained. Polyestertime
• Goldman Sachs has flagged the potential for a sharp rise in Brent crude oil prices, forecasting a possible short-term spike to just over $90 per barrel. Polyestertime
• McKinsey predicted that by 2030, 30% of current U.S. jobs could be automated; Goldman Sachs projected that up to 50% of jobs could be fully automated by 2045, driven by generative AI and robotics. Fortune
• Job Displacement and Creation: A Goldman Sachs report estimates that generative AI could affect approximately 300 million jobs globally over the next decade, with up to 50% of workloads in vulnerable professions being automated. UNBOXED AI
• Financial Services Evolution: Allianz and Deutsche Bank represent traditional financial strength, but face challenges from fintech disruption and low interest rate environments. Axis Intelligence
• With access to IBM's comprehensive offerings, including the innovative watsonx AI and automation portfolio, Deutsche Bank will be able to analyze its data more deeply, simplify complex business processes, and drive IT automation. Planet Mainframe
• Net exports may still contribute positively to GDP growth, but UBS expects China's exports to fall sharply in 2026, bearing down on manufacturing capex and prices. Fibre2Fashion
• US big banks, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo have held discussions on potentially launching a stablecoin that will improve transaction speeds whilst managing competition from encroaching crypto firms. FinExtra
• JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Deutsche Bank all maintain quantum teams betting that a few hundred mid-fidelity qubits could hand them an edge in asset allocation and fraud detection well before the million-qubit era. Interesting Engineering
• Big banks like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs are launching crypto products, and the U.S. government is laying the groundwork for regulations that will support the growing digital asset economy. FinExtra
• Morgan Stanley's cost analysis reveals a compelling trajectory: current-generation Waymo vehicles cost over $120,000, but upcoming models could drop to $85,000, with Goldman Sachs projecting specialized robotaxi vehicles reaching $50,000 by 2030. The AV Market Strategist
• Industry analysts now expect China to achieve near-total AI self-sufficiency within five years, with the sector projected to reach $1.4 trillion by 2030, and Morgan Stanley warning that the assumption China cannot make AI chips is clearly wrong. Nucamp Bootcamp
• UBS expects China's GDP growth to slow to 4% this year and 3% in 2026 under the baseline scenario, assuming that the US hikes tariffs on China's exports in September and China raises policy support in response. Fibre2Fashion
• The risk that space debris represents keeps increasing operational costs, potentially stalling the rapid growth expected in the space sector, which companies like Morgan Stanley project to reach trillions of dollars in coming decades. OpenTools
• The World Bank is the latest body to cut its growth forecast as a result of Trump's erratic trade policies, although US officials insist the negative consequences will be offset by a surge in investment and still-to-be approved tax cuts. AsiaOne
• Citigroup expects an uptick in banking and trading revenue this quarter, despite mounting uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs. PAN Finance

Last updated: 03 July 2025