Our Scans · (FS.1.02) Central Banking · Weekly Summary

• [New] We believe central bank demand will remain elevated next year and have been encouraged by strong buying in the third quarter of 2025, even with much higher gold prices. J.P. MORGAN
• [New] Around 755 tonnes of central bank purchases are expected in 2026 - a step lower than the peak of the last three years of more than 1,000+ tonnes, but still elevated when compared with pre-2022 averages, which were closer to 400-500 tonnes. J.P. MORGAN
• [New] Even with three consecutive years of more than 1,000 tonnes of central bank gold purchases, the structural trend of higher central bank buying has further to run in 2026. J.P. MORGAN
• [New] Underpinning J.P. Morgan Global Research's price forecasts is continued strong investor and central bank gold demand, which is projected to average around 585 tonnes a quarter. J.P. MORGAN
• [New] The Bank of England remains cautious but is preparing markets for potential cuts in early 2026 if inflation continues to cool. Move or Improve
• [New] The Norges Bank is poised to reiterate that the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year, while stressing that a restrictive monetary policy is still needed because inflation is still too high. Brown Brothers Harriman
• [New] The Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise interest rates on Friday, giving the yen an advantage over a dollar that could lose support if expected U.S. rate cuts emerge early 2026. CNBC
• [New] The Fed will slow its pace of interest rate reductions and lengthen the time to reduce rates. sdwia.com
• [New] The S&P 500 (SPY) is forecast to reach 7900 by end-2026, reflecting ongoing AI-driven investment and supportive fiscal and monetary policy. Seeking Alpha
• [New] Money markets are now pricing in almost no prospect of further interest-rate cuts from the European Central Bank, and around a 30% chance of a hike by the end of 2026. McAlvany Financial Group
• [New] The Bank of England, on evidence of a softening economy and lower inflation, is forecast to bring rates down to 2.75% in 2026 before pausing. Morgan Stanley
• [New] In the U.S., the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, which the Federal Reserve watches closely, is forecast to rise in the first quarter of 2026 because of tariffs and immigration restrictions before resuming its gradual descent. Morgan Stanley
• [New] US public markets are set for another big year in 2026, driven by moderating inflation, anticipated interest rate cuts, and a significantly expanded backlog of IPO-ready companies. PwC
• [New] The European Central Bank maintains a more cautious wait-and-see stance due to persistent inflationary risks, while the Bank of Japan (BOJ) signals a potential shift towards tightening after years of ultra-loose policy. FinancialContent
• [New] The Federal Reserve's recent 25-basis-point interest rate cut, with signals of another potential cut in 2026, has bolstered confidence, leading to a rally in U.S. treasuries and declining yields. FinancialContent
• [New] Beyond Wednesday's expected quarter-point cut, traders now anticipate a half-point of total reductions by the US central bank in 2026, futures and options trading shows. financialpost
• [New] Bond traders are betting on a shallower path of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts in the year ahead, part of a global move to wager that major central banks will slow or halt their monetary easing. financialpost
• [New] Following the latest Fed announcement, interest rate futures markets are effectively pricing 2.2 cuts in 2026. Rhame & Gorrell Wealth Management | The Woodlands Finan
• [New] Investors shifted focus to the U.S. Federal Reserve, gearing up for a widely expected interest rate cut in December. / Japan The Trade Academy
• [New] While the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are expected to cut rates (BoE by 25 bps to 3.75%), the European Central Bank is likely to maintain its deposit rate at 2.0% due to persistent service sector inflation. FinancialContent
• [New] The ... organization expects the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates just twice more by the end of 2026, before keeping the federal funds rate at 3.25% to 3.5% throughout 2027. McAlvany Financial Group
• [New] Federal Reserve rate cuts aimed at normalizing policy, rather than staving off recession, would likely support further gains for stocks in 2026. The Plan Advocate

Last updated: 18 December 2025