Our Scans · (FS.1.02) Central Banking · Weekly Summary

• [New] By the end of 2026, 90% of global GDP will be transacted via Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). TradingMaster AI
• [New] The European Central Bank plans to launch a digital euro with a holding limit of €3,000. RootData
• [New] The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates at least twice in 2026, with a probability of 74%. ODaily
• [New] Central banks are still expected to ease interest rate policy with the exception of a few developed economies like Japan and Australia. Kraken Blog
• [New] Interest rate situation in Japan: Rising interest rates in Japan could significantly strain the national budget and lead to uncertainty and disruption. DJE Kapital AG
• [New] With U.S. interest rate differentials set to narrow further as the Federal Reserve cuts rates, the costs of hedging U.S. assets against a weaker dollar will fall. Comerica
• [New] The dollar's weakness is expected to persist for a second year, driven by anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and a supportive macro environment for equities. / USA Economic Times
• [New] While markets broadly anticipate the Federal Reserve continued monetary easing trajectory, other major central banks have begun diverging, with the ECB and RBA signalling concluded easing cycles while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) articulates plans for further rate increases. IG
• [New] Macroeconomic turbulence from US political friction over Federal Reserve independence, potential regulatory blunders in Russia, and divergence from slumping US stock indices could spike volatility or spark corrections. Let's Talk, Bitcoin
• [New] Threats of a criminal indictment against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell by President Donald Trump, the toppling of Venezuela's regime by U.S. special operations forces and the capture of President Nicolas Maduro, and rhetoric around annexing Greenland all qualify as tail-risk events. investing.com
• [New] If the tech sector faces a significant valuation reset in mid-2026, we could see a rapid consumption chill that forces the Federal Reserve to pivot aggressively toward rate cuts to prevent a broader downturn. The Pilot News
• [New] 2026 could be a year where inflation expectations, central bank policy, and government economic planning converge in ways that materially affect everyday Australians. The Times
• [New] The upcoming Fed Chair appointment process in May should be smooth, alleviating fears of institutional disruption or politicized monetary policy. Q1 2026 Outlook: Visibility Means Risk On | VanEck
• [New] Accounting for climate risks in managing the ECB's own operations and balance sheet: the ECB has continued to integrate climate considerations into its non-monetary policy portfolios. European Central Bank
• Moderate oil price declines could allow the Federal Reserve to adopt a more dovish stance, increasing the likelihood of rate cuts, even if other inflation drivers persist. Economic Times
• A potential shift in Venezuela's oil supply could influence crude prices and inflation, potentially leading to a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve. Economic Times
• Signs that inflation is cooling could make it more likely that the Federal Reserve will reduce its key interest rate later in 2026, which could translate into lower borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards. KSAT San Antonio
• The Fed will be cutting key interest rates further, and if deflation materializes, the Fed will likely pick up the pace of its key interest rate cuts. investing.com
• Two-thirds of U.S. business leaders plan to do more M&A deals in 2026, spurred by further interest rate cuts and lower taxes. Manufacturing Dive
• Developments in the U.S. have shifted investor focus toward institutional stability, with concerns over Federal Reserve independence triggering a more cautious, risk-aware tone. Balfour Capital Group
• In 2026, the Central Bank of Ireland will streamline financial regulation, overhauling gatekeeping, supervision and regulatory reporting. Maples Group

Last updated: 22 January 2026