Our Scans · (FS.1.02) Central Banking · Weekly Summary

• [New] Moderate oil price declines could allow the Federal Reserve to adopt a more dovish stance, increasing the likelihood of rate cuts, even if other inflation drivers persist. Economic Times
• [New] A potential shift in Venezuela's oil supply could influence crude prices and inflation, potentially leading to a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve. Economic Times
• [New] Signs that inflation is cooling could make it more likely that the Federal Reserve will reduce its key interest rate later in 2026, which could translate into lower borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards. KSAT San Antonio
• [New] The Fed will be cutting key interest rates further, and if deflation materializes, the Fed will likely pick up the pace of its key interest rate cuts. investing.com
• [New] Two-thirds of U.S. business leaders plan to do more M&A deals in 2026, spurred by further interest rate cuts and lower taxes. Manufacturing Dive
• [New] Developments in the U.S. have shifted investor focus toward institutional stability, with concerns over Federal Reserve independence triggering a more cautious, risk-aware tone. Balfour Capital Group
• [New] In 2026, the Central Bank of Ireland will streamline financial regulation, overhauling gatekeeping, supervision and regulatory reporting. Maples Group
• [New] The most underestimated tail risk of 2026 is that the Fed may ease monetary policy more than what the economic conditions reasonably require, inadvertently reigniting inflation. FuTu News
• [New] On the interest rate front, we expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further and the ECB to leave interest rates unchanged. Procurios
• [New] The Reserve Bank and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions will move the Australian dollar against the US dollar. Australian Broadcasting Corporation
• The U.S. Federal Reserve will likely cut rates more in 2026 than both central bankers and financial markets expect. Morningstar, Inc.
• The monetary policy decisions of the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is widely expected to implement two interest rate cuts in 2026, will continue to significantly influence capital flows and investor sentiment across Asia. Whalesbook
• In the UK, one rate cut in 2026 is fully priced in, but several economists predict the Bank of England will ease rates at least twice. The Guardian
• Gold is expected to remain supported by sustained central bank buying and strong investor demand, with projections pointing to a sharp rise by late 2026, driven in part by declining trust in major currencies and a broader search for durable stores of value. Medium
• The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee will reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points each in December and Q1 2026, resulting in a terminal rate of 3.5%. CBI
• The US Federal Reserve faces a dilemma between raising interest rates to fight inflation-risking a collapse of inflated asset markets - or maintaining easy monetary policy and eroding the dollar's real value. bricsgrain
• Economists are looking ahead to 2026 for potential triggers of sterling weakness, including weak UK growth, further interest rate cuts from the Bank of England, and ongoing political risk from UK fiscal policies. Morningstar, Inc.
• Currency traders are focused on the Bank of England's next moves, as UK interest rate cuts could weaken sterling against the dollar and euro. Morningstar, Inc.
• Most major banks expect the overnight rate to sit at 2.25% through much of 2026, reflecting a central bank that is broadly comfortable with inflation progress but cautious about declaring victory. Mortgage Rates & Mortgage Broker News in Canada
• BMI expects gold to average higher in 2026 than in 2025, though prices are likely to ease later in the year as the effects of global monetary stimulus wane and the US Federal Reserve wraps up its rate-cutting cycle. Grand Pinnacle Tribune
• More of the heavy lifting has been done by the Bank of Canada, so we do not expect any changes to interest rates in 2026 in terms of rate cuts, but we do think that now fiscal policy should do its job. BNN Bloomberg

Last updated: 15 January 2026