Our Scans · (FS.1.02) Central Banking · Weekly Summary

• [New] The Director of Monetary Policy at the Bank of Albania, Erald Themeli, stated that the Albanian economy is expected to maintain positive growth rates, expanding by around 4% in 2026. ALBANIA DAILY NEWS
• [New] Peru's central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 4.25% for a seventh consecutive meeting. Brown Brothers Harriman
• [New] Sophisticated institutional models are rapidly pricing out any probability of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the tail risk of actual rate hikes now entering the distribution of probable outcomes. Au79 Macro
• [New] A new Moody's Ratings sector in-depth report warns that further interest rate rises together with high housing prices are set to worsen affordability for new homebuyers over the rest of 2026, increasing the risk of delinquencies in RMBS pools. Australian Broker News
• [New] The Bank of Mexico's benchmark interest rate will be 6.3% at the end of 2026 and 5.5% at the end of 2027. Mexico News Daily
• [New] The Bank of England expects inflation to reach around 3.5% in mid-2026, which is above its 2% target but significantly lower than the 11.1% peak seen in 2022. Paul Smith Music
• [New] In the West, a clear divergence has emerged: the EuroStoxx 50 has declined by 12%, reflecting Europe's energy vulnerability and the ECB's recent decision to postpone interest rate reductions because of stagflation risks. SpecialEurasia
• [New] Looking ahead, the direction of gold prices today will depend heavily on three factors: interest rate expectations, the strength of the U.S. dollar, and the trajectory of the Iran conflict. Economic Times
• [New] Expectations of future Federal Reserve rate cuts could lower yields and support gold. Economic Times
• [New] Despite short-term dips, forecasts show gold could reach $5,400 by 2026, supported by central bank buying and portfolio diversification trends. Economic Times
• [New] Higher oil prices and rising interest rates will cause Australia's GDP growth rate to slow to 1.3% in 2026, 0.5% lower than ANZ anticipated in February and barely half last year's pace. MacroBusiness
• [New] Bond markets now assess a 77% probability that the Fed's benchmark interest rate will be the same in December as it is today, in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Yahoo Finance
• [New] Financial markets are now predicting that the Federal Reserve will not make any rate cuts in 2026, as policymakers grapple with potential economic fallout from the U.S.-Israel war with Iran. Yahoo Finance
• [New] The US dollar is trading moderately stronger, underpinned by safe-haven demand linked to the Iran-related Middle East conflict and expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates relatively high for longer, with only a late-year cut currently priced. IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog | Blog
• [New] The Bank of England kept interest rates steady at 3.75% but signalled that a reduction could come in March. SBS Wealth
• [New] The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has voted to hold interest rates at 3.75% at today's meeting - a move which was widely expected given the Middle East conflict and threat of rising inflation. SPF Private Clients
• Rates are still relatively high as fears around stubborn inflation have kept the Federal Reserve from lowering its benchmark rate throughout 2026. WSJ Buyside
• The Federal Reserve's federal funds rate cut of 0.25% in September to the 4% to 4.25% range will ease interest that farmers pay on variable short-term expenses such as seed, fertilizer and chemical. Farm Progress
• Gold was the standout performer, rising by 11% to close around $5,250 per ounce, underpinned by Fed easing expectations, central bank purchases, with the People's Bank of China extending its buying streak, and mounting geopolitical risk. Butterfield Group
• The surge in oil prices along with other products such as fertiliser as a result of the Iran war has fanned inflation fears and dampened expectations that the Federal Reserve and other central banks have room to lower interest rates. ST
• The Federal Reserve is projected to lower rates by 50 basis points in 2026, a dovish move that is already boosting risk assets. Bitget
• Mexico's central bank cut its benchmark interest rate Thursday, surprising analysts by opting to give the weak economy a boost despite the inflationary risk of the war in the Middle East. NAMPA

Last updated: 09 April 2026