Our Scans · (FS.1.02) Central Banking · Weekly Summary

• [New] The BoE is expected to cut its key interest rate, the ECB to keep it steady, and the BoJ to raise it. economic-research.bnpparibas.com
• [New] ECB stays put: The European Central Bank kept its deposit rate at 2.0% whilst upgrading 2026 forecasts-growth from 1.0% to 1.2%, inflation from 1.7% to 1.9%. IG
• [New] The European Central Bank kept its policy rate at 2.0%, a move widely anticipated by markets, while reconfirming the likely end of its easing cycle. Nuveen
• [New] Banks and diversified financial services firms benefited from expectations that net interest margins could remain resilient even if the Federal Reserve begins to ease policy in 2026. STL.News
• [New] Geopolitical risk will remain elevated due to economic sovereignty and global rivalries, with widespread monetary policy desynchronization expected in 2025 as central bankers respond to divergent conditions. Medium
• [New] The European Central Bank is on hold for the foreseeable future, while the Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its steady pace of rate increases into 2026. Oakglen Wealth - Advisory and Discretionary Management
• [New] With U.S. and UK rates nearing neutral and central bank influence on markets likely to be more muted, the implications for currencies, bonds, and equities remain important as we head into 2026. Oakglen Wealth - Advisory and Discretionary Management
• [New] Most economists expect the BOJ to raise its benchmark interest rate once more in 2026 to hit 1%. BBC News
• [New] Sticky inflation could keep the Federal Reserve cautious, weighing on Bitcoin. investing.com
• [New] Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sees tariffs generating only a one-time increase to prices rather than persistently higher inflation and roughly predicts that the peak impact on everyday goods to hit in the first quarter of 2026. Reason.com
• [New] As the Federal Reserve moves toward a terminal rate of approximately 3.0% by mid-2026, Bank of America is positioned to see its net interest margins expand, even as the broader economy maintains a healthy growth trajectory. FinancialContent
• [New] Central banks around the world have spent the year navigating a delicate balance, easing monetary policy to support growth while remaining vigilant against lingering inflation pressures, geopolitical risks, and the potential ripple effects of trade policies. MEXC Blog
• [New] The appointment of a Trump-leaning, policy-loosening chairman may reinforce the interest rate cut trajectory for 2026 and accelerate liquidity injection, creating resonance with initiatives like the RMP plan and the National Bitcoin Reserve, further boosting confidence in risk assets. FuTu News
• [New] Heading into 2026, and fresh off three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, small-cap stocks are likely to enjoy the lower cost of borrowing. investing.com
• [New] Delphi Digital's prediction for social trading growth is framed within a generally bullish macro outlook for 2026, driven by an expected pivot in global monetary policy, moving away from liquidity withdrawal and elevated policy rates. FinanceFeeds
• [New] The European Central Bank advanced the digital euro toward a 2027 pilot, and major European banks formed the Qivalis consortium to launch a regulated euro stablecoin. Acceleron Bank
• [New] The key macro variable to monitor in 2026 will be the trajectory of U.S. interest-rate cuts. Crowdfund Insider
• We believe central bank demand will remain elevated next year and have been encouraged by strong buying in the third quarter of 2025, even with much higher gold prices. J.P. MORGAN
• Around 755 tonnes of central bank purchases are expected in 2026 - a step lower than the peak of the last three years of more than 1,000+ tonnes, but still elevated when compared with pre-2022 averages, which were closer to 400-500 tonnes. J.P. MORGAN
• Even with three consecutive years of more than 1,000 tonnes of central bank gold purchases, the structural trend of higher central bank buying has further to run in 2026. J.P. MORGAN
• Underpinning J.P. Morgan Global Research's price forecasts is continued strong investor and central bank gold demand, which is projected to average around 585 tonnes a quarter. J.P. MORGAN

Last updated: 25 December 2025