Our Scans · (FS.5.03) Commodity Markets · Weekly Summary

• [New] The conflict in the Middle East, which is causing high volatility in commodity prices and significant disruptions to supply chains, is weighing on trade. Coface
• [New] A strong El Nino could raise global food commodity prices by as much as 9% within 16 months of onset and last for years longer. Time
• [New] Combined with mounting hostilities in the Red Sea and Russia-Ukraine disruptions to energy and agricultural exports, the global commodity shock continues to build with no obvious relief on the horizon. BTRM
• [New] Disruption to Black Sea grain exports following attacks on Russian port infrastructure is creating renewed pressure in agricultural commodity markets. CPA | The Credit Protection Association
• [New] The classic risk: energy prices and inflation pressure A prolonged Middle East conflict could push global inflation higher through energy, commodity, and food prices. Merrill Edge
• [New] Geopolitical risk, especially in the Middle East, pertaining to commodity and energy markets remains a concern. Cision PR Newswire
• [New] Investors should remember that aluminium prices remain closely linked to global economic activity, making commodity price volatility the biggest risk to the investment thesis. Jarvis Invest
• [New] The spring commodity shock will lift food prices by around 1.3% in the UK and 0.8% in the euro area, a meaningful but manageable increase. Forbes
• [New] Any fresh escalation in the Iran-US standoff could move crude oil and, by extension, the broader commodity complex sharply. Univest
• [New] If the global bioeconomy continues to transition beyond specialty healthcare markets toward commodity materials and products, economic needs will shift heavily toward industrial-scale production infrastructure. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
• [New] World Bank publications have likewise emphasized the vulnerability of commodity-dependent and import-reliant developing countries to sanctions-driven and conflict-driven price shocks, particularly in energy and food markets. VidhiAagaz
• [New] The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday it has seen energy and commodity prices fall since the US-Iran agreement to halt hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but it will take time for prices and Gulf trade flows to normalize. Mining Weekly
• For a commodity as globally traded as coffee, disruptions in shipping lanes can cascade quickly into contract delays, higher freight costs, and renewed volatility. Blog Uhedge | Trading Solutions
• The Bigger Trend: The Trump administration's $11.1 billion aid request follows another $12 billion aid package that began paying out earlier in 2026, reflecting the cumulative pressure of higher production costs, trade disruptions, and volatile commodity markets. Edward Jones
• Palm oil is subject to significant commodity price volatility driven by weather-related production disruptions in Indonesia and Malaysia, which together account for approximately 85% of global supply. Persistence Market Research
• The cost structure of rebar production is heavily dependent on global commodity markets, which are subject to geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions. Market Data Forecast
• The IMF also warned that the possibility of a renewed Middle East conflict looms large and could extend commodity price volatility, further threaten supply chains, raise prices, and weigh on financial conditions. The Daily Star
• TotalEnergies posted its second-quarter results, amid rising commodity prices and an integrated business model boosting earnings and cash flow despite Middle East-linked disruptions. Egypt Oil & Gas | Connecting The Pieces
• The first half of 2026 brought commodity price volatility, geopolitical disruptions, infrastructure constraints, and demand patterns that do not match the forecasts written just a few years ago. Enverus | Creating the future of energy together.
• Major commodity crops-sugar (-47%, eight models from -63% to -24%) and cereals (-42%, eight models from -58% to -15 %-are US$ 500 billion lower by 2050 compared with BAU. Nature
• By 2050 the EL2 scenario shows lower global agricultural production relative to BAU (high agreement, -17%) and a compositional restructuring of agricultural commodity sectors. Nature
• The combination of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine crisis has resulted in disruptions to global industrial and supply chains, sustained hikes of commodity prices, and weaker international monetary and financial systems. U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC and SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION

Last updated: 25 August 2026