Our Scans · (FS.5.03) Commodity Markets · Weekly Summary

• [New] Copper & Commodities: CPI marginally supportive of copper stability, but broader upside is driven more by trade risks than Chinese demand. Moneta | Trade Forex, Indices, Commodities & More
• [New] Supply chain disruptions - from sanctions on Russian oil and gas to Red Sea shipping bottlenecks - are driving volatility across key commodities, while protectionist policies, including US tariffs on metals and China's export bans on critical minerals, are reshaping global trade flows. Research and Markets
• [New] The ECB is playing a similar game, wary of trade tensions with the U.S. China's stimulus, while propping up its economy, could ripple globally by driving up commodity demand. World Economic Trends Report
• [New] Russia's invasion caused immediate drops in stock prices and sovereign bond values, while commodity prices surged as fears of supply disruptions took hold. Debexpert
• [New] Industrial metals like copper saw modest gains in June on hopes of Chinese stimulus, while agricultural commodities were mixed. Synapse Trading
• [New] The outlook for inflation remains cautiously optimistic, with the potential for further moderation if global commodity markets remain stable. The Standard Newspaper | Gambia
• [New] The OECD downgraded its 2025 economic growth forecast for Indonesia for the second time in 2025, citing weakening commodity prices and deepening global trade risks. Invest Indonesia
• [New] Food inflation is expected to increase to 2.9% in the second quarter of 2025, driven by an upward base effect and a sharp increase in unprocessed food prices, as well as by a large increase in food commodity prices. European Central Bank
• Oil is a global commodity, and companies will pull back on production if the price of oil falls too low. FactCheck.org
• The expansion of the global free-shipping zone will let overseas consumers enjoy high-quality and cost-effective China-made commodities, bolster the development of international trade and improve the competitiveness of Chinese online retailers in the global e-commerce landscape. chinadailyhk
• Global inflation is forecast to decline from 4.5% in 2024 to around 3.6% in 2025, though downside progress remains vulnerable to commodity shocks, trade frictions, foreign exchange volatility and supply constraints. MIT OpenCourseWare
• The high price of the UK capacity auctions for 2027-29 and renewable capacity additions will boost earnings, while the exposure to commodity prices will decline in the coming years. Morningstar, Inc.
• Global Commodity Price Softening: While still subject to geopolitical risks, a general softening in global commodity prices (especially crude oil, which India heavily imports) has also provided some relief on the imported inflation front. Serrari Group - Serrari | Finance Tips, Tools, Macro &
• FAO's latest assessments indicate a relatively optimistic outlook for food commodity markets, with production and trade of all commodities, except sugar, anticipated to increase. MarketsAndTrade
• Brazil, grappling with higher inflation due to commodity export reliance, highlights the risks of over-dependence on global markets. Indonesia Economy Watch
• Over the next 12 months, Indonesia's inflation is projected to range between 1.5 and 3.5%, influenced by global commodity volatility, domestic consumption patterns, and exchange rate movements. Indonesia Economy Watch
• Without concrete steps forward, traders remain concerned that unresolved trade disputes could continue to weigh on global supply chains, commodity pricing, and broader economic stability. STL.News
• Global demand for some critical minerals is expected to increase fivefold by 2040, with copper, which is a key commodity that is produced in northwestern B.C., highlighted as facing supply shortages. BC Gov News
• Potentially pushing in the other direction, further weakening of global economic growth could reduce demand and exert additional downward pressure on commodity price futures. Central Bank of Ireland
• The World Bank anticipates a 12% decline in commodity prices in 2025, which could ease inflationary pressures, particularly in energy and food markets. World Economic Trends Report
• Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-China frictions, threaten to disrupt supply chains and commodity markets, posing upside risks to inflation. World Economic Trends Report
• Inflation is expected to moderate to 4.3% in 2025, but trade tensions, commodity price volatility, and policy missteps could push it higher. World Economic Trends Report

Last updated: 15 July 2025