Our Scans · (FS.5.03) Commodity Markets · Weekly Summary

• [New] In annual terms, the growth rate of the import deflator is projected to stand at 3.7% in 2026, up from 0.0% in 2025, driven by higher energy commodity price pressures, though dampened by the past appreciation of the euro and cheap imports from China. European Central Bank
• [New] Food inflation is expected to peak at 3.7% in the second quarter of 2027, reflecting increasing domestic food commodity prices related to higher energy and fertiliser costs, as well as other indirect effects of the energy price shock. European Central Bank
• [New] Energy inflation is projected to peak at 12.5% in the third quarter of 2026, to fall sharply in 2027 owing to lower energy commodity prices and negative base effects, and to rise again in 2028 with the introduction of ETS2. European Central Bank
• [New] In early 2027 headline inflation is expected to decline because of expected lower energy commodity prices and because of large energy base effects as substantial increases in consumer energy prices in 2026 fall out of the year-on-year comparison. European Central Bank
• [New] Decreases in energy commodity prices, as embedded in futures prices, as well as large base effects, imply that energy inflation would decline, turning negative in 2027, and would then tick up in 2028, owing to the introduction of the EU Emissions Trading System 2. European Central Bank
• [New] There is a global commodity price shock with no clear resolution timeline that increases recession risk. BTRM
• [New] Industrial commodity prices are expected to increase by more than +10% over the 2026-2027 period, broadly in line with the previous scenario. PricePedia
• [New] With future agricultural production set to be curtailed due to a fertiliser shortage, global food commodity reserves risk being depleted quickly. T&E
• [New] While ceasefire discussions have continued intermittently, disruptions to global energy infrastructure and commodity flows remain significant concerns. Hancock Whitney Bank
• [New] The RBI Friday lowered the GDP forecast for FY27 to 6.6% from 6.9% projected in April, citing higher energy and commodity prices, and ongoing supply disruptions linked to the Iran war. Economic Times
• [New] In 2026, overall commodity prices are expected to rise by 16%, reaching their highest level since 2022 amid the war with Iran. GMK.CENTER
• [New] The West Asia crisis and associated logistics/commodity costs are weighing heavier than initially projected. Sahi
• [New] Downside risks to growth remain, particularly if the West Asia conflict persists and commodity production weakens. Vietnam+ (VietnamPlus)
• [New] The ongoing disruption to the Strait of Hormuz trade corridor is triggering one of the most severe shocks to global commodity flows in recent years, with significant implications for food security, agricultural production, and global markets. FAO

Last updated: 16 June 2026