Our Scans · (FS.5.03) Commodity Markets · Weekly Summary

• [New] Implication: Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations will refine Fed rate cut odds (near-certain 25 bps next week after August CPI at 2.9% YoY and 263K jobless claims), influencing commodity demand and Brazil's oil/soy exports via Petrobras and agribusiness. The Rio Times
• [New] Implication: Chinese CPI/PPI data will drive demand for Brazil's soy, iron ore, and oil exports; deflationary pressures could weaken commodity prices, hitting ag and mining sectors. The Rio Times
• [New] Key U.S. data on employment, non-manufacturing activity, and oil inventories will drive commodity prices, impacting Brazil's energy sector, led by Petrobras. The Rio Times
• [New] A weaker dollar, likely if the Fed eases faster than global peers, could further amplify commodity gains. Ainvest
• [New] Weak commodity prices and global instability could dampen momentum. Corporate Boards USA
• [New] By developing new tools and methods and by gathering new and more comprehensive data, USGS scientists can better capture the risks associated with mineral commodity supply chain disruptions. USGS
• [New] A dovish Fed could send USD lower, especially against EUR, GBP, and commodity currencies. skilling.com
• [New] Food manufacturing prices showed 0.6% monthly increases for imports with substantial 5.6% annual growth, reflecting global food inflation pressures and supply chain disruptions affecting agricultural commodity markets. The Global Statistics
• [New] Commodity traders predict global harvests affecting billions in futures markets. What is The FourWeekMBA
• [New] Coffee and confectionery - core categories for the food giant - performed below expectations in H1 over input cost inflation, with CFO Anna Manz warning that 'margins will get worse before they get better, as commodity cost increases impact the P & L in the second half'. DairyReporter.com
• [New] Brazil's equity rebound in Q2 2025 was supported by easing inflation but could reverse if global commodity prices dip. Ainvest
• [New] The overall impact on Indonesian exports, as forecasted using export data, is estimated to be around 10.57% across 98 commodity categories such as textiles, furniture, processed fisheries and footwear. The Jakarta Post
• [New] Any signals about adjustments to the Fed's balance sheet reduction schedule could have significant implications for commodity markets. Discovery Alert
• [New] The recent announcement of a 50% tariff on all Brazilian imports to the United States has sent shockwaves through global commodity markets, with the pulp industry particularly vulnerable to disruption. Discovery Alert
• The import export price index outlook for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026 suggests continued volatility across multiple commodity categories, with energy markets likely to remain the primary source of price fluctuations affecting overall trade price indices. The Global Statistics
• In alternative scenarios, a 20% commodity spike might inflate prices to 4%, curbing consumption by 2%; aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes could trigger $10 billion in outflows and a 10% rupiah drop; deeper devaluation might add 2 percentage points to inflation, straining SMEs. / Indonesia Indonesia Economy Watch
• The Jackson Hole Symposium represents a crucial inflection point for commodity markets, with potential for significant price movements based on Federal Reserve signaling about future policy direction. Discovery Alert
• Some moderate recovery could occur later in the year, contingent on global sentiment and improved commodity / export prices. IC Trading | Official Blog | Blog
• Tariff tensions between the U.S. and India, volatile commodity prices, and shifting geopolitical dynamics will be the key factors influencing monetary policy in the coming months. Sensexnifty - Ahead of Market
• The surge in pre-July sales-4.71 million tons of soybeans in the first 18 days of June - has already reshaped global commodity flows, while the looming post-July slump threatens to disrupt supply chains and test the sustainability of Argentina's agricultural sector. Ainvest
• Commodity analysts from ING said in a note earlier today that The less likely a ceasefire looks, the more likely the risk of tougher sanctions. investing.com

Last updated: 16 September 2025