Our Scans · (FS.5.03) Commodity Markets · Weekly Summary

• [New] Challenges Ahead Despite progress, several structural challenges persist in global commodity markets: Supply Chain Fragmentation: Geopolitical rivalries threaten trade connectivity. TradingView
• [New] Commodity traders are grappling with a surge in geopolitical and economic threats, as escalating military conflicts, shifting tariffs, and mounting supply chain pressures reshape the global trading landscape. Insurance Business
• [New] Commodity price volatility represents the primary risk for fertilizer and chemical companies, with agricultural commodity prices, weather patterns, and global supply-demand dynamics creating cyclical revenue and margin pressure. Value Sense Blog
• [New] Brazil's commodity / export economy weathers trade shocks via BNDES R$ 1.6 billion loans, with Selic 15% drawing R$ 4.8 billion September inflows, but industrial confidence at 47.2 (tenth month < 50) and fiscal hits from R$ 20 billion Correios lifeline signal risks. The Rio Times
• [New] For investors, the coming months will be critical for observing the political landscape, the consistency of regulatory frameworks, and the trajectory of global commodity prices. Statesman Examiner
• [New] The resulting loss of biodiversity, increased vulnerability to climate shocks, and greater dependency on global commodity markets continues to this day with even greater intensity. Cadtm
• [New] The external environment remains challenging, with falling global demand and commodity prices projected to drop around 10% in 2025 and another 5% in 2026, hurting key sectors. World Bank
• [New] A 50% profits tax concession will be granted to commodity traders establishing businesses in Hong Kong to drive demand for shipping and professional maritime services. Mayer Brown LLP
• [New] Iron ore will account for more than 25% of all resource and energy commodity earnings over the next two years. Australian Broadcasting Corporation
• [New] China is adding eleven new oil reserve sites in 2025 and 2026 as Beijing accelerates stockpiling the strategic commodity to safeguard supply security. TradingView
• [New] The sustainable aviation fuel start-up OXCCU has raised $28 million in series B funds, which it says will accelerate commercialization of its process to catalytically convert energetic commodity and waste gases into jet fuel. American Chemical Society
• [New] On average in 2025, euro-denominated commodity prices are forecast to decline by -6.3% compared to the 2024 average. PricePedia
• [New] Deepening ties with China brings risks, including reduced sovereignty and an over-reliance on commodity exports, which could hinder diversification and long-term stability. Economist Impact
• [New] The Commodity Futures Trade Commission has previously warned people to be wary of investing in gold. PBS News
• [New] A $3 billion investment in Brazil's onshore oil and gas sector, led by Petrobras and private players like Eneva and 3 R Petroleum, promises to elevate production by 300,000 barrels per day by 2030, strengthening Brazil's position as a commodity superpower. The Rio Times
• [New] Renewed Trump-era tariffs on imported auto parts are projected to increase production costs by $160 billion annually, further disrupting integrated supply chains and potentially impacting commodity pricing and availability. The Chronicle-Journal
• [New] A potential decline in inventories, especially during a seasonal production slowdown in the coming months, could support prices of the commodity that plays a vital role in the food, cosmetics, and biofuel industries worldwide. ADM Investor Services
• [New] Hydrogen potential - MENA's renewable resources also create opportunities for green hydrogen production, which could become an export commodity in the global energy transition. En tibi
• [New] Historical events like the Panama Canal disruptions have demonstrated how critical transit routes can impact shipping costs and global commodity prices, while trade tensions have forced shifts in LPG sourcing. FinancialContent
• [New] With weaker global growth forecasts and persistent macroeconomic headwinds, the broad dampening of demand for essential resources is leading to a projected decline in overall commodity prices, profoundly impacting producers, consumers, and investors alike. The Chronicle-Journal

Last updated: 21 October 2025