Our Scans · (FS.5.03) Commodity Markets · Weekly Summary

• [New] A strong El Nino could drive up global food commodity prices by up to 9%, with soya beans, corn and rice seeing the biggest spikes. The Guardian
• [New] Projectile strikes on Hendijan, Mahshahr, and Abadan threaten Iran's petrochemical and refinery infrastructure, with ripple effects already reaching crypto and commodity markets. Crypto Briefing
• [New] For commodity and shipping markets, any escalation that meaningfully threatens freedom of navigation near the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Oman would ripple through freight rates, insurance premiums, and the cost of goods moving through one of the world's busiest maritime corridors. Crypto Briefing
• [New] Renewed conflict in the Middle East could prolong commodity price volatility, further disrupt supply chains, raise prices and tighten global financial conditions. Peoples Gazette Nigeria
• [New] Higher commodity prices could further delay the return of inflation to the Fed's longer-run goal of 2%. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
• [New] The UK government has announced it will operationalise regulations that will tackle illegal deforestation, by prohibiting the use of illegal commodities and establishing commodity-based due diligence reporting frameworks, Responsible Investor reports. FTI Strategic Communications
• [New] Upside risks: stronger-than-expected services inflation persistence, renewed energy or commodity price shocks, and tighter global financial conditions that transmit unevenly. IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog | Blog
• [New] The Commodity Markets Outlook baseline assumes that Middle East-related supply disruptions ease in the third quarter of 2026, limiting the severity and duration of supply constraints. World Bank Group
• [New] Towards the end of the projection horizon, the reduction in energy commodity prices, a recovery in real disposable income and improving confidence imply slightly stronger growth in 2028. European Central Bank
• [New] India's response imposing export bans to stabilise domestic commodity prices illustrated another dimension of El Nino risk that businesses rarely model: policy risk. ET2C International
• [New] The global coffee industry received important news during the week as Brazilian commodity experts forecast record coffee exports for the upcoming 2026/27 crop year. flavorist.com
• The World Bank expects headline commodity prices to rise by around 16% in 2026, the first annual increase since 2022, mainly because of energy and fertiliser. investing.com
• In global green trade, the first shipment of green ammonia produced at Envision's Chifeng Net Zero Industrial Park was delivered to LOTTE Fine Chemical in South Korea, marking a milestone in the emergence of green oil as a global zero-carbon commodity. Cision PR Newswire
• NOAA's confirmation that El Nino has developed in the tropical Pacific raises the risk of renewed weather-related volatility across commodity markets over the next 6 to 18 months. Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
• After a first half defined by the Iran war and its impact on oil, commodity prices and inflation, the rest of 2026 will test the global economy, even as AI-driven optimism continues to lift growth. Yahoo! Finance
• Global inflation would rise by 0.4 percentage points in 2026 and 1.3 percentage points in 2027, with upside pressures from elevated commodity prices partially offset by weaker final demand. ECOSCOPE
• Across Southeast Asia, inflation and trade figures from Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines will help gauge exposure to commodity price swings and slowing external demand. financialpost
• Supply chain disruptions and damage to regional oil and gas infrastructure have reinforced expectations for tighter supply and higher-for-longer commodity prices, supporting continued investment in North American drilling, infrastructure expansion, and strategic resource consolidation. PwC
• The Middle East conflict remains an active wildcard: if it escalates further, commodity price shocks could delay the inflation outlook materially. Integrated Finance Group
• Overall commodity prices will rise by 16% during 2026, driven by higher energy, fertilizer and raw material costs. Global Agriculture
• BNM said higher global commodity prices resulting from the West Asia conflict may push domestic cost pressures slightly higher, but the impact on inflation is expected to remain manageable. Vietnam+ (VietnamPlus)
• Senators are urging the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to clarify rules for event contracts and strengthen monitoring standards, warning that rapid growth in prediction markets is exposing weaknesses in safeguards against manipulation and consumer harm. Government Executive

Last updated: 14 July 2026