[New] Despite the positive outlook, Vinit warned of structural challenges still facing Thailand's economy, including high household and SME debt, as well as global geopolitical risks that could pressure export performance.
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[New] The World Bank now expects Thailand's economic growth, measured by GDP, to slow to 1.6% in 2026, driven by weaker global trade, persistently high household debt, and a slower recovery in tourism.
Tanawan Vinaisatien
Monetarily, high household debt has blunted the efficacy of monetary transmission, while Thailand's primary fiscal balance will need to be in surplus to bring the public debt-to-GDP ratio down.
https://www.bangkokpost.com
Developers face a prolonged period of economic uncertainty heading into 2026, with household debt, weak purchasing power and unpredictable risks shaping business decisions.
https://www.bangkokpost.com
As mortgages in Hong Kong have risen to almost 70% of household debt, with insufficient wage growth to match, even small rate increases could have a large impact on disposable income demand.
Seeking Alpha
Canada's financial regulator is raising the amount of capital major banks need to have on hand over concerns of high household debt levels and other elevated systemic vulnerabilities.
Advisor's Edge
The confluence of the 18-year real estate cycle peak, unprecedented commercial mortgage maturities, elevated consumer debt stress, widespread retail contraction, and depleted household savings creates meaningful recession risk for 2026-2028.
Medium
Long-standing structural challenges, including high household debt, overvalued housing, and years of underinvestment, will continue to weigh on Canada's growth outlook.
Oxford Economics
Last updated: 17 February 2026
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