Our Scans · Ukraine · Weekly Summary

• [New] Ukraine has done more to enhance NATO's security than any single ally's budget increase could achieve. CEPA
• [New] For allied defence industries, Ukraine represents a partner that delivers results under pressure - a living laboratory for technologies that will define next-generation deterrence. CEPA
• [New] The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, warned in 2026 that the US-led war in Iran would have a similar impact to the combined effect of the twin oil shocks of the 1970s and the fallout of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Guardian
• [New] Ukraine is willing to share its experience and provide opportunities for European manufacturers to test systems and collect data. UNITED24 Media
• [New] How dramatically Ukraine's defence industry has changed: from a country that could only receive, Ukraine has become a player that can provide-both weapons and knowledge. UNITED24 Media
• [New] One of the greatest security threats today, as the war in Ukraine and the Middle East has shown, is cheap drones that are easy to mass-produce and can inflict significant losses through sheer numbers and scale. UNITED24 Media
• [New] Starlink's role in Ukraine is the clearest recent example: a commercial constellation became a decisive military communications asset, then a point of leverage and vulnerability. Belfer Center
• [New] Ukraine is containing the Russian drone threat at current levels of damage while Russia is currently unable to stop Ukraine from increasing its level of damage. Sarcastosaurus
• [New] Excluding the drone teams of the frontline units, Ukraine hoped to increase its drone personnel from 86,000 to 100,000 by the beginning of April. Sarcastosaurus
• [New] The National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, based on intergovernmental agreements with partners, will define the framework for cooperation - just to ensure that Ukrainian technologies and Ukrainian weapons do not end up in Russian hands. Yahoo News
• [New] The Russians have threatened to use nuclear weapons in the context of their war in Ukraine and they have also lowered their nuclear doctrine threshold for using nuclear weapons. Pearls and Irritations
• [New] Nato expansion, specifically Nato expansion into Ukraine, represents not merely a threat but a mortal threat to Russia's very status as an imperialist power. Counterfire
• Ukraine has shifted to a coordinated exhaustion strategy that Russia's current air defence architecture, stretched across a vast geographic perimeter, cannot adequately counter without accepting unacceptable front-line risk. Drone Warfare
• Predictive Analysis: Ukraine will likely intensify requests for additional air defence interceptor resupply from NATO partners, as the 33% drone penetration rate in Ternopil demonstrates that current intercept capacity is insufficient against 400-plus drone salvos. Drone Warfare
• [1-month] Ukraine could likely accelerate deployment of additional mobile Counter-UAS assets to Kharkiv Oblast to address the demonstrated 13% drone penetration rate, though procurement and redeployment timelines suggest full operational effect would take longer than one month to materialize. Drone Warfare
• A $500 FPV drone destroying a $5 million tank changes everything about how you plan a defence budget. / Ukraine MiGFlug.com Blog
• Predictive Analysis: Ukraine will likely issue its first formal defence export licenses under the streamlined procedures announced by Zelenskiy, with Gulf state partners as the probable initial recipients, though actual hardware delivery could take 1.3 x longer than the announced timeline suggests. Drone Warfare
• Predictive Analysis: Ukraine will likely publish revised Shahed interception statistics that show higher drone penetration counts than previously reported, as the new cross-regional tracking methodology captures previously unrecorded transits. Drone Warfare
• Predictive Analysis: Ukraine will likely reach 30-40% of its 15,000 recruitment target for the Unmanned Systems Forces, given documented personnel constraints across the Ukrainian military and competition from other combat arms for eligible recruits. Drone Warfare
• Predictive Analysis: Czechia and Poland will likely formalize alternative procurement channels through non-sanctioned Taiwanese intermediaries or third-country distributors to sustain drone transfer volumes to Ukraine, though supply throughput could drop 20-30 percent during the transition period. Drone Warfare
• Ukraine instead sought and received even more military help from Western Europe, which sees Russia as a direct threat, while simultaneously stepping up its own domestic production of weapons. HuffPost UK
• The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has trapped one fifth of the world's oil supply in the Persian Gulf, a crisis that the World Bank Group predicts will spike energy prices by 24% in 2026 - the biggest increase since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Scientific American

Last updated: 22 May 2026