Our Scans · Ukraine · Weekly Summary

• [New] Ukraine could enter 2026 with its most dramatic military upgrade yet-combining Western fighter jets, airborne early warning aircraft, next-generation European air defence systems, and a new generation of Ukrainian-made ballistic and cruise missiles. UNITED24 Media
• [New] Ukraine needs $120 billion for defence in 2026 alone, with half expected from partners. Courthouse News Service
• [New] Negotiations on the EU's next long-term budget, or Multiannual Financial Framework, which covers EU spending between 2028 and 2034, have only become more complex than before, as the interest on the newly agreed loan to Ukraine must also be financed from it. Warsaw Enterprise Institute
• [New] Europe's leaders finally agreed in December to fund Ukraine for the next two years - not by directly using Russian frozen assets, as many had hoped, but through a loan guaranteed by 24 member states. The European Correspondent
• [New] Ukraine will plan humanitarian demining of territories liberated from Russian occupation in 2026 using digital solutions. Euromaidan Press
• [New] In 2026, the humanitarian demining of the de-occupied territories of Ukraine will be planned using a new approach that incorporates modern digital solutions. Rubryka
• [New] The showcase model will likely expand to include counter-drone systems and electronic warfare packages as Ukraine seeks to monetize its operational experience while maintaining technological edge over adversaries. Drone Warfare
• [New] Russia's war against Ukraine will not end in 2026, and that the coming months will be dominated not by genuine negotiations, but by an imitation of diplomacy. Euromaidan Press
• [New] Ukraine will never recognize its occupied territories as Russian, even as it expects to restore sovereignty over all its land at some point in the future. financialpost
• [New] Russia's military and political leadership will continue attempts to mount an offensive in its war against Ukraine throughout 2026.
• [New] If elections are held in 2026, they could become either a black swan event for Ukraine, bringing a sharp increase in chaos and turmoil, or a phoenix that will revive hopes for the formation of a fundamentally new economic policy. International Liberty Institute
• [New] The Ukraine war will transition to a frozen conflict sometime in 2026. Tomorrow Is Possible
• [New] The Czech Republic plans to continue the 'shell initiative' for Ukraine, providing essential ammunition for artillery and weapons. online.ua
• [New] Japan could send ammunition to Ukraine to help prevent Russian President Putin from achieving his objectives in that war. nippon.com
• [New] Russia's use of the Oreshnik missile was a clear escalation against Ukraine and meant as a warning to Europe and to the US. Euronews
• [New] Ukraine will continue targeting Russian oil refining infrastructure to undercut the Kremlin's oil revenues - a strategy that's already proving effective, especially when paired with newly introduced and upcoming American sanctions. Vitalii Portnikov
• [New] Ukraine now needs to focus on security issues, the development of its defence and security forces, and the diplomatic track of negotiations - areas that will fall under the remit of the Office of the President headed by Budanov. Spectrum News
• [New] A potential end to hostilities in Ukraine could increase recession risks in the short term by reducing output in defence-related industries and lowering household incomes. New Eurasian Strategies Centre
• [New] The Ukraine conflict will remain a major driver of compliance activity, but alongside it are rising the megatrends of human trafficking, payment rail transformation and renewed emphasis on digital identity. Global Association of Risk Professionals
• Predictive Analysis: Taiwan will likely leverage its semiconductor advantage to become the primary non-Chinese supplier for critical drone components (flight controllers, communications chips, power management systems) to Ukraine and NATO allies by 2027-2028. Drone Warfare
• The integration of AI-navigation and autonomous targeting will likely accelerate as Ukraine seeks to counter Russian electronic warfare improvements, while swarm coordination capabilities will emerge to overwhelm air defences through saturation attacks. Drone Warfare
• Predictive Analysis: Expect Russia to maintain 100+ drone nightly operations through winter 2025-2026, forcing Ukraine into unsustainable interceptor expenditure while Moscow refines multi-axis swarm coordination. Drone Warfare

Last updated: 16 January 2026