Our Scans · Ukraine · Weekly Summary

• [New] A draft of the 28-point proposal, developed by US and Russian negotiators, envisages major concessions by Kiev and includes points that cross long-standing red lines for Ukraine. McAlvany Financial Group
• [New] The buildup of defence capabilities weighs on public finances: as defence expenditure in the EU rises by 0.5% of GDP between 2024 and 2027, the general government deficit is projected to edge up from 3.1% to 3.4% of GDP, while the public debt ratio is set to increase from 82% to 84.5%. / Ukraine CEPR
• [New] Continued European military assistance and European-financed American weapons sales to Ukraine will likely enable Ukrainian forces to defend Ukraine's Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast for several years, and possibly even reverse some Russian gains. Critical Threats
• [New] Ukraine and its international partners have a rare opportunity to convert the tragedy of war into transformation and progress in the energy sector. FP Analytics
• [New] While preparing financial support plans for Ukraine for 2026-2027, the European Commission is working on the assumption that Russia's war against Ukraine may end in late 2026. NV
• [New] Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday signed a law moving the military toward a year-round conscription model starting in 2026, amid the Kremlin's efforts to expand manpower for its war in Ukraine. The Moscow Times
• [New] The United States has warned it may scale back intelligence sharing and weapons supplies to pressure Ukraine into accepting the framework of a U.S.-brokered peace agreement. Ukraine's Arms Monitor
• [New] The U.S. has ramped up pressure on Ukraine, warning it may scale back intelligence and weapons support unless Kiev agrees to enter U.S.-brokered peace talks with Moscow. The Kyiv Independent
• [New] Under the new aid package, Spain will provide Ukraine with 300 million euros' worth of weapons. Ukraine's Arms Monitor
• [New] Spain will transfer 40 IRIS-T surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine. Ukraine's Arms Monitor
• [New] Ukraine has the benefit of defending its homeland, so morale might be on its side. Geopolitical Futures
• [New] In response, Ukraine has pivoted toward a decentralized energy model, a strategy that could serve as a blueprint for other nations. Ainvest
• [New] Ukraine plans to acquire as many as one hundred French fighter jets over the next decade, presidents of both countries said today. Council on Foreign Relations
• [New] Ukraine may now face a very difficult choice, either losing its dignity or the risk of losing a key partner, in the U.S. WHEC.com
• [New] Ukraine risked losing its dignity and freedom - or Washington's backing - over a U.S. peace plan that endorses key Russian demands, a proposal Donald Trump said Kiev should accept within a week. gCaptain
• [New] One of Ukraine's main demands, for enforceable guarantees equivalent to NATO's mutual defence clause to deter Russia from attacking again, is dealt with in a single line with no details: Ukraine will receive robust security guarantees. gCaptain
• [New] Countries near the war zone tended to have tighter trade links with Russia and Ukraine, making them more exposed to sanctions and supply disruptions. CEPR
• [New] An end to the war in Ukraine might pave the way for higher Russian oil flows, adding to oversupply concerns. CNBC
• [New] The war in Ukraine has showcased the integration of cyber operations with kinetic military campaigns, involving disruptive attacks on critical infrastructure, information warfare, and coordinated influence operations targeting civilian populations and international allies. Rapid7
• [New] Ukraine will seek more air defence, drones and ammunition; Russia will try to compensate its manpower and supply deficits, possibly via foreign contractors. Medium
• [New] Talks are expected to continue this weekend over the plan to use Russia's frozen assets to generate a €140bn loan for Ukraine. SKY
• Slovakia will oppose allies' attempts to provide more support to Ukraine and agree on a new round of sanctions against Russia. Stars and Stripes
• The war in Ukraine has now entered a new and dangerous phase marked by ground offensives but, even more so, by the ever-escalating drone war at the very core of any calculus with respect to power, civilian risk, and political blame. Medium

Last updated: 28 November 2025