[New] Ukraine will likely continue developing longer-range indigenous strike capabilities while systematically targeting Russian military-industrial nodes, forcing Moscow into costly defensive infrastructure investments that divert resources from offensive operations.
Drone Warfare
[New] Ukraine will likely integrate AI-assisted target recognition into fiber-optic platforms by late 2026, combining jam-proof guidance with autonomous terminal engagement to reduce operator cognitive load during swarm operations.
Drone Warfare
[New] Predictive Analysis: Expect Ukraine to intensify strikes against Russia's drone production infrastructure as indigenous missile capabilities mature, potentially expanding targeting to include component supply chains and testing facilities.
Drone Warfare
[New] Ukraine will likely prioritize development of satellite signal jamming capabilities and kinetic counter-space options, while Western partners may face pressure to restrict Starlink terminal availability in regions adjacent to conflict zones.
Drone Warfare
[New] Russia will probably respond with swarm interceptor tactics or directed energy weapons to overwhelm evasion systems, forcing Ukraine toward expendable decoy drones or hardened reconnaissance platforms.
Drone Warfare
[New] Sustaining 1,000+ weekly drone strikes forces Ukraine into a resource allocation dilemma: defend critical infrastructure or preserve interceptors for higher-value missile threats.
Drone Warfare
[New] Ukraine will allow allied nations to train AI models using its combat data gathered during the war against Russia.
Just Security
[New] The number of soldiers in the Bundeswehr is expected to increase by up to 10,000 next year, while EUR 9 billion per year has been earmarked for enhancing the security of partner countries like Ukraine that have been attacked in violation of international law.
Clarion Defence DSEI
[New] The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has published its Emergency and Early Recovery Response Plan for Ukraine for 2026-2028, outlining priority actions to protect agricultural livelihoods, restore productive capacity and support Ukraine's agrifood sector.
FAO-LOW
[New] Norway will provide $200 million to Ukraine to restore energy infrastructure, including immediate energy needs and gas procurement.
Critical Threats
[New] The $490M USAF contract to Trust Automation signals accelerated American investment in layered counter-drone defences, addressing the proliferation of small UAS threats that have proven tactically disruptive in Ukraine and Middle Eastern theaters.
Drone Warfare
[New] The Molniya swarm system will likely see accelerated fielding as Russia seeks to overwhelm Ukrainian air defences through numerical superiority, while Ukraine continues developing long-range strike capabilities to target replacement production nodes.
Drone Warfare
[New] Eight out of 10 Germans are now convinced Russian President Vladimir Putin is not serious about pursuing a peace agreement in the war in Ukraine, and many have begun to believe intelligence officials' warnings that Russia plans to eventually expand its war to NATO countries.
Al Jazeera
[New] The full-scale war could continue into its fifth year, with limited territorial gains, high casualties, and continuing missile and drone strikes throughout Ukraine and on key targets in Russia.
RFE/RL
[New] Despite personnel gaps and financial shortages, Ukraine will likely fight until it truly runs out of arms, soldiers, or both.
RFE/RL
[New] The transfer to Ukraine of transformers, pumps, and other technical equipment that is no longer used in Croatia is expected.
Center for Western Balkans Studies
[New] EU leaders agreed last December on a new €90 billion loan for Ukraine, while European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced new defence initiatives in October, presenting them as steps to strengthen Europe's deterrence against Russia and other adversaries by 2030.
Euronews
[New] In Ukraine, nearly two-thirds of people expect their country's relations with the EU to get stronger; only a third say the same about America.
History of the Present
[New] Peace treaty talks between Ukraine and Russia will remain unresolved by the end of the year.
Gartner
Ukraine could enter 2026 with its most dramatic military upgrade yet-combining Western fighter jets, airborne early warning aircraft, next-generation European air defence systems, and a new generation of Ukrainian-made ballistic and cruise missiles.
UNITED24 Media
Ukraine needs $120 billion for defence in 2026 alone, with half expected from partners.
Courthouse News Service
Negotiations on the EU's next long-term budget, or Multiannual Financial Framework, which covers EU spending between 2028 and 2034, have only become more complex than before, as the interest on the newly agreed loan to Ukraine must also be financed from it.
Warsaw Enterprise Institute
Last updated: 23 January 2026
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