Our Scans · Ukraine · Weekly Summary

• [New] Putin's demands before he agrees to a war termination agreement will likely be even more extensive. / Ukraine Institute for the Study of War
• [New] North Korean troops will continue to be stationed in Russia, even if the war between Russia and Ukraine ends. United States Department of State
• [New] As seen in the recent global energy crisis - intensified by Russia's invasion of Ukraine - fossil fuel-based energy systems are highly vulnerable to geopolitical instability and supply chain disruptions, which can lead to sharp price spikes. NewClimate Institute
• [New] Ukraine might import 5 billion cubic meters of gas from Europe in 2025. Caspian Policy Center
• [New] Ongoing tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East could lead to commodity price spikes and supply chain disruptions. MIT OpenCourseWare
• [New] Expectations that the US and Russia are working toward an agreement to end the Ukraine war are weighing on crude prices as it eases concerns that the US will ramp up additional export sanctions on Russian energy supplies. Barchart.com
• [New] The United States and Ukraine's European allies agree that Europe, not the United States, will fund further military and security assistance to Ukraine. Institute for the Study of War
• [New] European markets have rallied on hopes of a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire and fiscal stimulus, while Japan's tech sector is gaining momentum as firms like Sony and TSMC expand AI infrastructure. Ainvest
• [New] Real negotiations will involve painful territorial decisions that must be based on a realistic assessment of how much more destruction Ukraine can sustain. Zeit-Fragen
• [New] The Czech Republic, Hungary, and Slovakia are increasing output, while Ukraine has managed to maintain over 50 TWh annually despite wartime disruptions. Forbes
• [New] The ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis has already caused supply disruptions at certain auto manufacturing plants in Russia. globaldata
• [New] Russian occupation administrations are focusing on developing the tourist potential of occupied Ukraine using assets such as the Port of Yalta. Institute for the Study of War
• [New] If Ukraine has to accept a bad peace, then it will want clear security guarantees to make sure it cannot happen again. SKY
• [New] There has been a lot of speculation over what a ceasefire agreement could look like in which the lines of contact between Russia and Ukraine could be frozen for a number of years. Al Jazeera
• [New] Allowing Russia to keep territory it has occupied in Ukraine will result in another invasion. SKY
• [New] The clarity around taxation and asset classification could make Ukraine a model for other countries seeking balanced crypto oversight. FX Leaders
• [New] Uncertainty persists on the geopolitical front, with heightened global risks stemming from military conflicts in Ukraine and the middle east showing no sign of concluding. Office of the New York City Comptroller Brad Lander
• [New] The US could impose very severe secondary tariffs, potentially 100%, on Russia if the war in Ukraine is not concluded within 50 days. The Independent
• [New] European and NATO allies announced that they will purchase over one billion euros worth of US weapons for Ukraine through a new NATO funding mechanism. Institute for the Study of War
• [New] European military aid to Ukraine could grow bigger in the coming days, with potential new bids on the Commission's €150 billion defence loans to boost Europe's and Ukraine's stockpiles. EurActiv
• [New] Ukraine will not agree to renounce NATO membership and still insists on reclaiming all its lost territories, including Crimea. News and Events
• [New] Trump has voiced growing frustration with Putin over the lack of progress towards peace in Ukraine and has threatened to impose heavy tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil, including China. Al Jazeera
• [New] If the US were successful in arranging a permanent ceasefire between Russia & Ukraine, the return of Russian hydrocarbons into global markets could ease supply concerns, albeit with a likely staggered return post-agreement. EDF

Last updated: 15 August 2025