Our Scans · Ukraine · Weekly Summary

• [New] While the US remains the primary spender, Europe's increasing military expenditure reflects a shifting security calculus, driven in part by the ongoing war in Ukraine and evolving threat perceptions vis-a-vis Russia. The Mail & Guardian
• [New] The Pentagon originally dismissed the supply of long-range missiles over fears that Ukraine could use them to strike targets deep within Russian territory, potentially sparking an escalation to the ongoing conflict. Global Defense Corp
• [New] The first 10 of 50 armored combat support vehicles will arrive in Europe in summer 2024 and will go to Ukraine in fall 2024 after Ukrainian forces train on them. Institute for the Study of War
• [New] If Russia's invasion of Ukraine leads to further disruption of key commodities, the supply chain stress will worsen. The Edge Malaysia
• [New] Europe's backing for Ukraine has suffered perturbations in recent weeks after a spat between Poland and Ukraine culminated in a threat by Warsaw to cut off new aid to Kiev. NDTV
• [New] Ukraine will be able to use British long-range weapons to strike targets inside Russia - a possibility that some other NATO countries providing weapons have balked at. The Washington Post
• [New] The World Bank predicts a 15% increase in Ukrainian exports this year, and a 30% jump in 2025 - creating revenue that will help Ukraine defend itself and provide essential services for citizens. U.S. Agency for International Development
• [New] In the short term, expanded production of munitions will be essential to Ukraine's ability to degrade the Russian military. Foreign Affairs Magazine
• [New] Ukraine has few reserves and has lost many of the tactical vehicles needed to exploit Russian vulnerabilities soon after they take positions. Foreign Affairs Magazine
• [New] Last week, Biden signed a bill to provide $95 billion in aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, despite deep polarization in the U.S. Congress; more than $60 billion will go to Ukraine. The Diplomat
• [New] From the Kremlin's standpoint, U.S. aid may not directly challenge Russian military superiority in Ukraine, but could heighten the costs associated with maintaining it, thereby postponing Russia's victory. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
• [New] US military assistance is currently en route to Ukraine and will take several weeks to arrive to frontline units and have tangible battlefield impacts. Institute for the Study of War
• Volodymyr Zelensky has urged the US to speed up weapons deliveries, warning that advancing Russian forces are trying to take advantage of Ukraine's shortfall. The Telegraph
• Central Asian states are becoming increasingly hesitant towards Russia as a result of its actions in Ukraine, while China is seizing economic opportunities. Eurasia Review
• A Russian victory in Ukraine could throw the world into disarray, transform the global economy, and trigger nuclear proliferation and further conflicts. Insider
• Russia defeating Ukraine could spark chaos and slam the global economy. Insider
• The US will provide Ukraine with additional Patriot missiles for its air defence systems as part of a massive $6bn additional aid package, the defence secretary has announced. The Guardian
• The Russian military command appears to be learning from past operational planning mistakes in Ukraine and will likely conduct a summer offensive operation that aims to stretch and overwhelm Ukrainian forces across a larger frontline in eastern Ukraine. Institute for the Study of War
• Russia has launched an unprovoked attack on Ukraine and is issuing vicious threats against Ukraine's allies including the UK. Sky News
• Spain will send a small number of Patriot missiles to Ukraine in response to pressure from EU and NATO allies to provide more military aid to Kiev. The Telegraph
• Continuing geopolitical concern surrounding conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have caused supply chain disruption. Foresight Enterprise VCT plc.
• U.S. President Joe Biden recently signed a foreign aid bill worth $95 billion, which will provide $60 billion and $26 billion in security assistance to Ukraine and Israel, respectively, and $8 billion to Indo-Pacific partners, including Taiwan. laitimes

Last updated: 10 May 2024