Our Scans · Ukraine · Weekly Summary

• [New] Initial temporary visas granted under one of the three Ukraine schemes - Ukraine Family Scheme, Homes for Ukraine scheme, or Ukraine Extension Scheme will begin to expire in 2025. GOV.UK
• [New] The war in Ukraine has shown the threat posed by attacks by missiles and drones. National Wind Watch
• [New] Russia controls about a fifth of Ukraine after nearly three years of war, but Ukraine's success in seizing and retaining a slice of Russian territory in Kursk could boost its negotiating position as both sides prepare for possible peace talks in 2025. The Independent
• [New] The U.S. has significant influence over the war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East so, we could minimize the damage or fuel it further. University of Denver
• [New] Going forward, one of the most important factors will depend on what role the U.S. plays in either helping to escalate or resolve the war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East. University of Denver
• [New] The war in Ukraine has become a stalemate, that Putin might seek to break with nuclear escalation and brinksmanship. Daily Mail
• [New] Russia's recent invasion of Ukraine, and the subsequent responses from governments around the world, are among the latest risks to have an impact on emerging-markets funds. Morningstar
• [New] Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened last year to strike central Kiev with a hypersonic ballistic missile if Ukraine continued hitting Russian territory with long-range Western weapons. Al Jazeera
• [New] Three years after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine has cut off Russian natural gas supplies to Europe, not only blocking a major customer of Russia's gas but eliminating a point of leverage Russia could use against Europe in discouraging assistance to Ukraine. MSNBC
• [New] Slovak Interior Minister Matus Sutaj Estok has criticized Ukraine's decision to halt the transit of Russian gas through its territory, calling it a betrayal of trust and a threat to European energy stability. The Automatic Earth
• [New] Geopolitical risks, such as the war in Ukraine, tensions in the South China Sea, and strained US-China relations, continue to pose threats to global economic stability. Learnsignal
• [New] The Trump administration will make a concerted effort to rebuild US and allied missile stockpiles, which have been depleted in recent years by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East, as part of an effort to prepare for a potential conflict with China. Capstone DC
• [New] Ending the flow of gas via Ukrainian pipelines will cost the Russian state-backed Gazprom around $5bn a year in gas sales, but will also cost Ukraine around $800m a year in transit fees. Carbon Brief
• [New] The ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza will only exacerbate the economic recession, as will Trump's unpredictability and threats of a trade war. Sandpoint Reader
• [New] Russia's invasion of Ukraine suggests one thing in particular: the global liberal order is under threat, and multiple centers of power have created vulnerable interdependencies. The Postil Magazine
• [New] The biggest geopolitical risk today is not Russia/Ukraine, Iran, or other Middle Eastern conflicts. Westshore Wealth
• [New] Slovakia has alternative gas supplies but Fico, who has ended military aid to Ukraine and sought warmer relations with Moscow, says Slovakia will lose its own transit revenues and pay additional transit fees to bring in non-Russian gas. ThePrint
• [New] Diplomacy alone will not ensure Ukraine can end the war on favourable conditions or prevent North Korea from sending troops to Russia. Eurasia Review
• [New] The outcome of the war in Ukraine could embolden China to pursue its own territorial ambitions, particularly with regards to Taiwan. oilprice.com
• [New] Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly threatened to strike at the heart of Kiev in recent weeks - an attack he said would be a response to Ukraine firing US-supplied weapons on Russian territory. Oman Observer
• [New] The halt of Russian gas flows via Ukraine will have a drastic impact on the EU but not on Russia. CNN
• [New] Ukraine now faces the loss of some $800 million a year in transit fees from Russia, while Gazprom will lose close to $5 billion in gas sales. CNN
• [New] Putin spent billions building Nordstream to circumvent Ukraine and blackmail Eastern Europe with the threat of cutting off gas supplies. Ukrinform

Last updated: 10 January 2025