Our Scans · Ukraine · Weekly Summary

• [New] Supply risks rose after a Ukraine drone strike disabled a key Rosneft refinery in Russia's Black Sea region. MUFG Research
• [New] EDIP is only worth €1.5 billion until the next EU budget cycle starts in 2028. / Ukraine Centre for European Reform
• [New] The drone initiative is Europe's opportunity to learn the Ukrainian way to conduct military tech innovation, and will be linked to a planned drone alliance with Ukraine. Science|Business
• [New] Energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty: Geopolitical uncertainty, such as the ongoing conflict in the Ukraine, continues to add upside risk to the medium-term inflation outlook. U.S. Department of the Treasury
• [New] NATO nations assisting Ukraine ... genuinely poses a risk of a conflict involving nuclear arms, which would lead to the annihilation of civilization. CNN
• [New] Geopolitical & Regional Threats: The United States, Ukraine, and UK top the list of targeted countries, with new ransomware campaigns observed against maritime, rail, and air cargo systems. SOCRadar Cyber Intelligence Inc.
• [New] As long as there is tension over the war in Ukraine, it's hard to imagine Russia agreeing to a new arms control deal with the United States. CNN
• [New] Every once in a while, people will leave comments about wanting peace in Ukraine, using the justification that war with a nuclear-armed Russia threatens world security. Medium
• [New] The presence of NATO troops fighting Russians in Ukraine could not be excluded. Wilson Center
• [New] If Ukraine can get out of the positional deadlock first - via technology, adaptation, and institutional capacity - then Russia will be compelled to respond. War and Civilization
• [New] Muzhenko is correct that Ukraine squandered early opportunities through a lack of leadership and foresight and continues to suffer from deep systemic flaws in mobilization, planning, and preparation. War and Civilization
• [New] On the technological front, Ukraine is pushing boundaries by applying artificial intelligence to make unmanned planes capable of selecting targets autonomously - a move that could represent another leap forward in the ongoing arms race. Grand Pinnacle Tribune
• [New] European funding for Ukraine, though often delayed, is described as a tsunami overwhelming Russia, while China's support is limited to weapons technology and the promise of future gas purchases-real financial relief for Moscow will not arrive before 2030. Grand Pinnacle Tribune
• [New] That Finland will allocate 100 million euros ($116 million) in its first contribution to the PURL initiative, which funds NATO purchases of US-made weapons for Ukraine, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Spain is joining the PURL initiative. Critical Threats
• [New] ISW continues to assess that any future ceasefire or long-term pause in combat in Ukraine would free up Russian forces for rapid redeployment to Russia's eastern border with NATO, whereby Russia may be able to pose a significant threat to NATO earlier than many European officials currently expect. Critical Threats
• [New] The range, complexity and strategic use of drones observed in Ukraine mark a turning point, a transformation that could have significant consequences for organized crime worldwide. Global Initiative
• [New] Collaborations with Western defence companies are emerging, allowing for the exchange of knowledge that could benefit both Ukraine and its international partners. SSBCrack News
• [New] Moscow has hinted that it might use nuclear weapons in Ukraine and introduced a doctrine in November that made the grounds for potentially using them broader and more explicit. DebateUS
• [New] Ukraine plans to begin limited exports of weapons next month. Yahoo News UK
• Putin attempted to discourage the United States from selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine by downplaying their effectiveness and indirectly threatening the United States. Critical Threats
• Russian authorities are likely trying to downplay the intended effects of the draft law on reservists, which ISW assesses will allow Russia to mobilize members of the active reserve on a rolling basis to sustain combat operations in Ukraine. Critical Threats
• The Kremlin has been using defunct US-Russian arms control treaties to cater to the bilateral Russia-US relationship in the hopes of securing future concessions on Ukraine. Critical Threats
• US officials reportedly stated that they expect Ukraine to conduct more Storm Shadow strikes against Russia. Critical Threats

Last updated: 07 November 2025