Our Scans · Ukraine · Weekly Summary

• [New] Ukraine plans to open 10 weapon export centers in Europe, including in Baltic and Northern European countries, in 2026, as part of efforts to internationalize its arms production. Yahoo News
• [New] Ukraine plans 7 million drone production in 2026-70 times U.S. output - with manufacturing doubling annually since 2023. Drone Warfare
• [New] Ukraine will likely prioritize automated detection-to-engagement cycles and layered counter-drone networks integrating multiple effector types to maintain interception rates against evolving threats. Drone Warfare
• [New] The integration of range-based multipliers will likely drive development of longer-range strike drones and counter-logistics capabilities, while the domestic production emphasis suggests Ukraine will become a major drone exporter post-conflict. Drone Warfare
• [New] Predictive Analysis: Expect rapid expansion of European drone manufacturing capacity by 2027-2028, with Ukraine serving as both testing ground and co-developer. Drone Warfare
• [New] Priority countermeasures include cyber operations against DELTA infrastructure, electronic warfare targeting data links between field units and central nodes, and kinetic strikes on suspected C2 facilities - though distributed cloud architecture may mitigate single-point vulnerabilities. / Ukraine Drone Warfare
• [New] Ukraine will likely pioneer automated drone manufacturing and AI-assisted targeting to manage operational tempo at scale. Drone Warfare
• [New] Russian forces will be able to amass drone and missile stockpiles that it can use to launch large, combined strikes in the future, while Ukraine ceases its strikes against Russian energy infrastructure. Critical Threats
• [New] Ukraine will continue to disrupt Russian regional communications, including telecommunications and internet services, with a particular focus on air defence systems. CSCIS
• [New] U.S. leaders have sounded the alarm about GPS's vulnerabilities, especially the signal jamming that has become ubiquitous in Ukraine, where Russia has put enormous energy into disrupting GPS. Air & Space Forces Magazine
• [New] Ukraine will likely prioritize AI-enabled threat classification systems to automate engagement prioritization during mass attacks, while Russia may introduce decoy drones with enhanced radar signatures to exhaust interceptor inventories. Drone Warfare
• [New] Ukraine will likely prioritize kinetic interception over EW solutions, while Western allies face pressure to restrict Starlink access in contested regions through geofencing or regulatory measures. Drone Warfare
• [New] Ukraine will likely prioritize fiber-optic FPV drones (currently being tested by French forces) and AI-enabled counter-swarm systems to reduce interception costs, while Western partners face pressure to provide sustainable air defence solutions beyond expensive Patriot interceptors. Drone Warfare
• [New] Ukraine plans to expand the Army of Drones system to other areas, including giving points for the performance of air defence and army aviation against drones, as well as for snipers. Defense News
• [New] The Kremlin continues to show no willingness to compromise for good-faith peace negotiations or any indication that it will accept anything less than a full Russian victory in Ukraine. Critical Threats
• [New] Ukraine will sign a 20-point peace plan with the United States, and a separate document will be signed by the United States and Russia.
• [New] The EU decision to grant a €90bn loan to Ukraine for 2026-27 came as a huge relief, yet further clarification that only €30bn is going to be earmarked for budget support is somewhat disappointing, the ICU wrote. Kyiv Post
• [New] Poland plans to increase supplies to Ukraine of liquefied natural gas. The Intelligencer
• [New] Russia could use nuclear weapons in response to Western efforts to support Ukraine, causing alarm among observers. Al Jazeera
• [New] The concentration of drone production facilities creates high-value targets, while the technology transfer between Ukraine and EU members offers intelligence collection opportunities on emerging European UAV capabilities and operational concepts. Drone Warfare
• Ukraine will need close to $390 billion in combined budget support and military assistance between 2026 and 2029, including roughly $50 billion a year to cover Kiev's budget deficit. Foreign Affairs Magazine
• Ukraine will increasingly rely on electronic warfare and directed energy weapons to achieve sustainable cost-exchange ratios against mass drone threats. Drone Warfare
• Drone swarms could provide persistent attacks in a limited time frame, which would increase lethality and potentially help Ukraine move closer to their goal of causing 50,000 Russian casualties a month. Sarcastosaurus

Last updated: 13 February 2026