Our Scans · Ukraine · Weekly Summary

• [New] Investors remain wary of further U.S. sanctions on Russia, as Trump has threatened to impose 100% secondary tariffs on Russian crude buyers as he seeks to pressure Moscow into halting its war in Ukraine. Energy News, Top Headlines, Commentaries, Features & Ev
• [New] Looking ahead, a modernised EU budget from 2028 will provide the flexibility and ambition needed to face future crises. / Ukraine European Commission
• [New] Although part of standard troop rotation, the US force will deploy to Poland at a point in time when tensions with neighboring Russia remain high over the invasion of Ukraine. The National Interest
• [New] As the war with Ukraine drags on, Russia needs to ramp up its oil exports to India and China, its two largest trade partners, and Putin's partnership with Modi and Xi could help him get one step closer to securing more business. Politico
• [New] As Russia increases airstrikes on energy facilities ahead of the heating season, aiming to weaken Ukraine and leverage its battlefield advantage, Kiev expects greater defensive challenges. European Pravda
• [New] The Financial Times reports that Ukraine risks facing a shortage of air defence systems after the Pentagon revised its military aid programme, slowing deliveries at a time when Russia is intensifying air attacks. European Pravda
• [New] Putin's statement threatening to strike foreign military assets in Ukraine is an attempt to provoke fear in the West about a possibility that European states are not considering. Critical Threats
• [New] Ukraine continued its campaign against Russian railway nodes, an effort that could significantly disrupt the Kremlin's logistics and troop movements. Hudson Institute
• [New] The export of some part of military production would not harm the defence of Ukraine, arguing instead that it would increase the potential of the defence of Ukraine. Business Insider
• [New] The private sector could become involved in defence in new ways, e.g. contracted commercial spy satellite imagery forming a big part of intelligence - a trend seen in Ukraine - being formalized into long-term Pentagon contracts, benefiting firms like Maxar, BlackSky, and Planet. TS2 Space
• [New] Hopes for a peaceful resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war are dimming after a recent U.S.-Russia summit, contributing to sustained demand for European defence stocks and persistent volatility in Brent crude prices due to escalating attacks on energy infrastructure. The Chronicle-Journal
• [New] Geopolitical flashpoints, from the Russia-Ukraine conflict to Middle Eastern tensions and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, will continue to disrupt critical supply routes, driving up transportation costs and insurance premiums. The Chronicle-Journal
• [New] During the initial weeks of the summer offensive in June, a swaggering Putin confidently declared that all Ukraine is ours and threatened to seize regional capital Sumy as part of efforts to establish a so-called security buffer zone stretching deep inside Ukraine. Atlantic Council
• [New] The US is expected to provide logistics, intelligence, and possibly air defence support, with its assets based outside of Ukraine, to defend against Russian drones and missiles. Public International Law & Policy Group
• [New] A ceasefire could be marginally easier to agree than a full peace deal, which would take many months of negotiations, during which Russia's assault on Ukraine would probably continue. BBC News
• [New] Ukraine wants Western security guarantees to deter any postwar Russian attack, and U.S. and European officials are scrambling to come up with detailed proposals of how that might work. Spectrum News NY1
• [New] European stocks outperformed on hopes for a Ukraine ceasefire. BlackRock
• Drones would still be grounded by severe weather, but if Ukraine builds an advantage in ground drones by winter, that could be decisive. Rogue Systems Recon
• Luxembourg joins the PURL initiative, which will purchase weapons from the United States for transfer to Ukraine. Harlentropolis's Substack
• CSG and Ukrainska Bronetechnika will produce 100,000 artillery shells in 2025, with output rising to over 300,000 annually from 2026. / Ukraine Transatlantic Dialogue Center
• Air defence: Given the continuous need for air defence systems and ammunition, Ukraine hopes to be included in the defence industry investment plans of EU Member States owning key European air defence capabilities. Transatlantic Dialogue Center
• Ukraine will likely offer common procurement of its recently developed Neptune cruise missile, a long-range ship weapon, and the Sapsan ballistic missile. Transatlantic Dialogue Center

Last updated: 12 September 2025