Our Scans · Ukraine · Weekly Summary

• [New] Ukraine has the opportunity to be involved in any relevant capability coalition. EEAS
• [New] Russian forces used incursions into NATO airspace to plan strikes against logistics routes in both Ukraine and Poland to cut flows of Western military assistance to Ukraine. Critical Threats
• [New] Ukraine-U.S. Partnership in the Unmanned Tech Sector; Challenges Faced by Ukraine's Air Defence Units; Ukraine Plans to Establish a Military Mobile Operator; and 10+ additional developments in defence tech, transfers, and partnerships in Ukraine. Ukraine's Arms Monitor
• [New] The disruption of Russian access to Starlink became a major contributing factor, allowing Ukraine to regain around 300 square kilometers of territory. Ukraine's Arms Monitor
• [New] Economic measures alone are not going to change Putin's strategic calculus with regards to the war in Ukraine. Futura Doctrina
• [New] Hungary will block a planned 90-billion-euro ($106 billion) European Union loan to Ukraine until the flow of Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline resumes, Hungary's foreign minister said. Fortune
• [New] The Kremlin will not be satisfied with another democratically elected Ukrainian government that rejects Kremlin rule even if Ukraine gives in to Russia's demand that it hold elections. Critical Threats
• [New] The value of nuclear weapons seems to have been confirmed by the invasion of Ukraine: many countries will probably have noted that once again, a non-nuclear-protected country was attacked. FRS
• [New] The Ukraine war validated the stability-instability paradox: a lower risk of direct, large-scale clash between nuclear powers, but a higher risk of indirect conflict. FRS
• [New] Without firm US security guarantees, spelled out in a peace agreement, handing over Donbas in return for a free economic zone will not work for Ukraine. RTE
• [New] The European Union has additionally voted to borrow 90 billion euros ($106bn) to give to Ukraine in financial aid in 2026 and 2027. Al Jazeera
• [New] Ukraine's European allies pledged 38 billion euros ($44.7bn) in military aid in 2026 during a Ramstein format meeting - the alliance of more than 50 countries which plans military aid for Ukraine - including 2.5 billion euros ($2.9bn) for Ukrainian drones - one of the most successful 'Ramsteins'. Al Jazeera
• [New] The war in Ukraine has caused a horrendous loss of life, which will only exacerbate the long-term impact on Russia's declining population. Rand Corporation
• [New] Like World War Two, the war in Ukraine is about whether freedom and democracy will survive in Europe, or whether a brutal, authoritarian imperialism will be allowed to overpower and crush its weaker neighbours. Times Argus
• [New] Hungary and Slovakia threatened to cut off energy supplies to Ukraine in a dispute over an oil pipeline, potentially compounding a crisis that has left millions of Ukrainians without reliable power during the coldest months of the year. FDD
• [New] The Netherlands will transfer F-16 flight simulators to Ukraine to accelerate pilot training and expand Ukraine's ability to generate qualified F-16 aircrews. Critical Threats
• [New] Ukraine could rebuild into a modernized economy, including in its defence sector, which is already demonstrating groundbreaking solutions. CEPA
• [New] Without international support, Ukraine's economy will stagnate, making proper recovery virtually impossible and leaving Ukraine vulnerable to further Russian aggression, creating immediate security risks for all of Europe. CEPA
• [New] Ukraine will need to continue developing its military capabilities and defence industry, while the civilian security sector will play a decisive role in safeguarding communities, maintaining stability, and ensuring the rule of law. CEPA
• [New] Ukraine will likely prioritize geofencing enforcement mechanisms and develop AI-powered counter-drone swarms capable of autonomous threat identification independent of satellite connectivity. Drone Warfare

Last updated: 27 February 2026