Our Scans · Ukraine · Weekly Summary

• The Russian military's continued use of known large-scale logistics facilities is a considerable vulnerability that Ukraine could exploit if Western states removed restrictions against Ukraine. Institute for the Study of War
• One of the primary reasons the West has maintained the restriction on Ukraine using Western weapons to strike inside Russia has been the fear of escalation. Foreign Policy Research Institute
• Putin warned the West on Wednesday that Russia could use nuclear weapons if it was struck with conventional missiles, as the U.S. and Britain weigh whether to give Ukraine permission to fire conventional Western missiles into Russia. Yahoo News
• ADB experts warn of risks from geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine, which could affect oil prices and increase inflationary pressures. Vietnam Economic Times | VnEconomy
• Due to Russia's ongoing war of aggression, the financing needs of Ukraine are expected to be higher than initially foreseen. European Neighbourhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiati
• The Ukraine Loan Cooperation Mechanism will be financed from future flows of extraordinary revenues stemming from the immobilization of Russian sovereign assets, as well as from amounts received as voluntary contributions from Member States and third countries or other sources. European Neighbourhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiati
• Ukraine continues to face a persistent aerial threat as Russia intensifies its missile and drone strikes, targeting major population centers, including Kiev. NCRI
• Russian state media is increasingly emphasizing the participation of foreign nationals in the Russian war effort in Ukraine, likely to reassure domestic audiences that Russia continues to recruit sufficient manpower and will not need to declare another mobilization wave. Institute for the Study of War
• US reluctance so far in allowing Ukraine to use Western weapons to strike deep inside Russia stems from fears of escalation from Moscow, a major global nuclear power. The Wiltshire Gazette and Herald
• If Ukraine were to strike deep into Russian territory using Western missiles, it could trigger a global conflict involving nuclear weapons. The Independent
• As the US economy recovered, inflation surged, exacerbated by Russia's war with Ukraine and supply chain disruptions. Optimize IAS
• While Russia looks on and applauds, Viktor Orban has turned Hungarian society against Ukraine in little more than two years - a trend which could poison neighbourly relations for decades. Balkan Insight
• Russia will need 3-5 years to restore the combat capability of its armed forces after the war in Ukraine. The Moscow Times
• The Russia-Ukraine conflict and related economic sanctions and the Israel-Hamas war have created significant volatility in the global capital markets and resulted in adverse global economic consequences, including disruptions of the global supply chain and energy markets. Endava plc
• Russian forces may not have addressed vulnerabilities at many logistics facilities within Russia due to the sanctuary space that restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western-provided weapons have generated, although the Toropets facility is not within range of Western systems fired from Ukraine. Critical Threats
• The U.S. government has shown sensitivity to timing ballistic missile test launches to mitigate the risks of misinterpretation by Russia during its war in Ukraine. War on the Rocks
• The Russian invasion of Ukraine, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, and political developments within the European Union and the United States have diverted attention from critical regulatory scrutiny, creating vulnerabilities in the financial system. Michael Kyprianou Law Firm
• Since the start of Russia's war against Ukraine, 19,546 Ukrainian children have been deported and/or forcibly displaced (but the actual number are known to be much higher), and around 1.5 million others remain in Russian occupied Ukraine, facing the risk of forced deportation. Ukrinform
• Russia reportedly aims to achieve a decisive victory in Ukraine by 2026 before likely medium - to long-term economic and force generation constraints begin to significantly degrade Russia's ability to sustain its war effort in Ukraine. Critical Threats
• Lifting restrictions would open up strategic possibilities for Ukraine to strike at the heart of the Russian war machine but carry enormous risks. 24/7 Wall St.
• While there has been an uptick in defence spending since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the overall level remains low, given the current threats Europe faces and the level of under-spending over the past three decades. Centre for European Reform
• Washington fears Russia is sending large quantities of enriched uranium to China in an effort to evade sanctions imposed after its invasion of Ukraine. The Telegraph

Last updated: 27 September 2024