Our Scans · Ukraine · Weekly Summary

• [New] In September, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky warned that, it's only a matter of time ... before drones are fighting drones, attacking critical infrastructure and targeting people ... fully autonomous and no humans involved. TRANSCEND Media Service
• [New] Ukraine's and SpaceX's efforts to shut off Russian forces' access to Starlink terminals in Ukraine are reportedly disrupting Russian Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies' short - and mid-range drone strikes in the immediate term, as ISW recently forecasted. Critical Threats
• [New] Predictive Analysis: Expect Ukraine to accelerate deployment of mobile electronic warfare platforms and AI-driven acoustic / RF detection networks to enable cheaper kinetic intercepts (small arms, directed energy) before drones reach high-value areas. Drone Warfare
• [New] Ukraine will likely accelerate deployment of electronic warfare systems and directed energy weapons as more cost-effective counter-drone solutions than missile-based air defence. Drone Warfare
• [New] Ukraine will likely escalate to kinetic counter-drone solutions and AI-enabled pattern recognition to identify Starlink-equipped UAVs by flight characteristics rather than signal jamming. Drone Warfare
• [New] The Commission will step up its support to build a stronger drone ecosystem, fostering closer ties between governments and industry through the Drone Alliance with Ukraine. European Commission Representation in Cyprus
• [New] Closer collaboration with Ukraine through the Drone Alliance will accelerate affordable defence innovation and mass production capabilities. Aviation24.be
• [New] Ukraine will open 10 weapons export centers across Europe in 2026 and expects its first German-produced drone within days. Euromaidan Press
• [New] The Ukraine-to-Singapore technology pipeline will likely accelerate as combat-proven AI autonomy becomes a competitive requirement for Indo-Pacific militaries facing electronic warfare threats from peer adversaries. Drone Warfare
• [New] The MBCT is going to eventually replace all of the 14 Active Component and 20 Army National Guard Infantry Brigade Combat Teams as part of a broad Army modernization effort to respond to evolving threats, lessons from Ukraine, and the demands of large-scale combat operations. SOF News
• [New] Ukraine will soon produce enough interceptors to make Russia's Iran-made Shahed drones meaningless. Al Jazeera
• [New] Ukraine's Western partners will provide Ukraine with a series of aid packages totaling $38 billion that will fund drones, air defence, artillery, and other military assistance in 2026. Critical Threats
• [New] The United States will not finalize a security agreement with Ukraine until after Ukraine and Russia reach a peace agreement and that the United States is pushing Ukraine to make concessions in order to conclude a peace agreement by Summer 2026. Critical Threats
• [New] The end of the Ukraine-Russian war could be a historical turning point. Toda Peace Institute
• [New] There seems to be a general fear that Russia may attack NATO and EU members, once the war in Ukraine comes to a standstill. Toda Peace Institute
• [New] Ukraine will have to give in on NATO membership, territory, and levels of armament. Toda Peace Institute
• [New] Predictive Analysis: Expect Russian deep-strike drones to proliferate across 300+ km ranges as Starlink integration matures, forcing Ukraine to disperse air assets across more hardened sites and expand decoy production. Drone Warfare
• Ukraine plans to open 10 weapon export centers in Europe, including in Baltic and Northern European countries, in 2026, as part of efforts to internationalize its arms production. Yahoo News
• Ukraine plans 7 million drone production in 2026-70 times U.S. output - with manufacturing doubling annually since 2023. Drone Warfare
• Ukraine will likely prioritize automated detection-to-engagement cycles and layered counter-drone networks integrating multiple effector types to maintain interception rates against evolving threats. Drone Warfare
• The integration of range-based multipliers will likely drive development of longer-range strike drones and counter-logistics capabilities, while the domestic production emphasis suggests Ukraine will become a major drone exporter post-conflict. Drone Warfare
• Predictive Analysis: Expect rapid expansion of European drone manufacturing capacity by 2027-2028, with Ukraine serving as both testing ground and co-developer. Drone Warfare
• Priority countermeasures include cyber operations against DELTA infrastructure, electronic warfare targeting data links between field units and central nodes, and kinetic strikes on suspected C2 facilities - though distributed cloud architecture may mitigate single-point vulnerabilities. / Ukraine Drone Warfare

Last updated: 20 February 2026