Our Scans · Ukraine · Weekly Summary

• [New] Putin is very likely preparing to attempt to offset Russia's near-exhaustion of voluntary recruitment in 2026 by mobilizing elements of Russia's strategic reserve to sustain combat operations in Ukraine. Critical Threats
• [New] Congress releases a $901 billion National Defense Authorization Act for 2026, exceeding President Trump's $892.6 billion request and marking the largest ever, with a 4% troop pay raise and $400 million Ukraine aid. GeopoliticsUnplugged Substack
• [New] In recent days, an alarming pattern of intensifying hostilities in front-line areas and persistent attacks on critical civilian infrastructure has continued across Ukraine, resulting in more power outages and disruptions to vital services nationwide. Secretary-General
• [New] Moscow views the EU's planned phase-out of Russian gas by 2027 and expanded military aid to Ukraine as adversarial moves, aiming to influence Europe's long-term energy cost calculations. GeopoliticsUnplugged Substack
• [New] One of the major questions for the end of the year and start of 2026 is whether a peace deal can be agreed between Russia and Ukraine. investing.com
• [New] Ukraine risks entering a postwar environment defined not by Russian aggression, but by Ukrainian fragmentation-regional mistrust, ethnic resentments, ideological vendettas, and political scapegoating - basically a hellscape that will affect all facets of life. War and Civilization
• [New] Ukraine will face a double blow: a country struggling with its identity at home while fueling instability abroad. War and Civilization
• [New] If Europe can generate sufficient military and economic support for Ukraine, and economic pressure on Russia, then at some point in 2026 or 2027 the incentive structure for Putin would change. The Guardian
• [New] Russia may try to renege on any future peace agreement it signs with Ukraine due to the Ukrainian government's alleged illegitimacy - as ISW has long warned. Critical Threats
• [New] The U.S. and Ukrainian officials discussed deterrence capabilities that Ukraine will need to sustain a lasting peace. KSTP.com 5 Eyewitness News
• [New] Ukraine bit back asymmetrically: SBU's Sea Baby drones torched Tambov depot, flames leaping 50 meters, halting Druzhba flows-50% 2026 revenue hit, Moscow estimates. Tension and War Index (TWI)
• [New] Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join Nato and Nato agrees to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future. BBC News
• [New] Russia escalates pressure on Europe amid the Ukraine conflict by increasing cyber activities against energy systems, probing offshore assets, and applying irregular tactics in the Black Sea and eastern Mediterranean to deter deeper EU support for Ukraine without risking direct NATO confrontation. GeopoliticsUnplugged Substack
• [New] Norway, Germany, Poland, and the Netherlands will provide two packages totaling $500 million to Ukraine through the Prioritized Ukrainian Requirements List initiative, which funds NATO states' purchases of US-made weapons for Ukraine. Critical Threats
• [New] German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul stated that Germany will provide $200 million toward the packages, which will provide Ukraine with essential supplies, including air defence equipment and ammunition. Critical Threats
• [New] If the Russia-Ukraine conflict moves toward resolution, global wheat output could climb even further. ING Think
• [New] Ukraine had received a draft plan from the U.S. that could restart diplomatic efforts to end the conflict with Russia. The Kyiv Independent
• [New] The United States has threatened to cut intelligence sharing and weapons supplies for Ukraine to pressure it into agreeing to the 28-point plan. Just Security
• [New] European natural gas traded at the lowest levels in 18 months as Ukraine and its allies work through a peace plan brokered by the US and Russia that could have far-reaching repercussions for global energy markets. financialpost
• [New] Ukraine could harvest 60.6 million metric tons of grain, including 23.2 million tons of wheat and 30.5 million tons of corn. ADM Investor Services
• Ukraine has significant potential for developing renewable energy sources (bio, wind, solar energy) and can export electricity, helping to reduce the energy costs for European industries. GMK.CENTER
• As part of post-war reconstruction, Ukraine could become a hub for energy-intensive production by European companies, provided that energy infrastructure is developed and electricity tariffs remain stable. GMK.CENTER
• With untapped gas reserves, strong wind and solar potential, and vast gas storage and transmission infrastructure, Ukraine is well positioned to be an energy powerhouse. FP Analytics

Last updated: 12 December 2025