Our Scans · (FS.6.07) Inflation · Weekly Summary

• [New] The Reserve Bank of Australia, after cutting its cash rate by 25 bps to 3.85% in May, is widely expected to shave another 25 bps to around 3.6% at its upcoming meeting as inflation cools but global headwinds linger. Seeking Alpha
• [New] The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to lower its cash rate to 3.6% on Tuesday, marking a third consecutive cut as inflation eases. financialpost
• [New] Softer inflation readings will be welcomed by the Bank of England, which is under growing pressure to continue its rate-cutting cycle. Insurance Business
• [New] Amid the ongoing trade uncertainty and recent geopolitical flare-up, one relief for central banks has been the speed at which oil prices tumbled back down after Israel and Iran agreed a ceasefire, lowering the risks to inflation. investing.com
• [New] Any wider escalation into the GCC region could affect energy prices, and may have repercussions for inflation globally. Yahoo Finance
• [New] UK inflation remains higher than in the Eurozone, supporting expectations that the Bank of England will stay cautious about rate cuts. International Payments & Currency Exchange Rates
• [New] The Bank of Korea remains concerned at the tariff impact on economic expansion rather than inflation and is judging how to keep cutting interest rates while weighing stability risks. FDD
• [New] Stagnant prices: If global demand growth stays weak, oil might trade between $ 60-$ 80/barrel (adjusted for inflation) instead of spiking to $100+. NAGA
• [New] Threats of higher tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump have added to uncertainty about the outlook for growth and inflation. Orange County Register
• [New] The Fed still sees a greater risk of higher inflation than unemployment, justifying its decision not to cut rates for now. Brookline Bank
• [New] U.S. equities enter July with positive momentum: the S&P 500 climbed over 5% in June, lifted by hopes of cooling inflation. Otet Markets Blog
• [New] Persistent inflation or deeper consumer weakness may force the BoE to keep rates elevated, prolonging stagflation risks. Otet Markets Blog
• [New] As for the ECB, although it refuses to rule out any future rate cuts, it may well have reached the end of its rate-cutting cycle, with growth expected to pick up and inflation on target. https://www.credit-agricole.com/
• The US economy is expected to slow further in the second half of the year, pressured by tight financial conditions, increasing delinquency rates, and rising inflation risk amid ongoing trade policy uncertainty and escalating conflict in the Middle East. Krungsri2020
• Inflation in the U.S. will spike in mid-2025 and reach 3.9% by the end of 2025, driven primarily by the cascading effects of trade barriers. ROGER MONTGOMERY
• Should inflation rise again in the US, leading the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates, global borrowing costs will rise, slowing economic activity. UQ News
• Australia's central bank lowered its key policy rate to 3.85%, flagging a shift in focus from inflation to downside growth risks as it trimmed GDP growth forecasts to 2.1% for 2025 and foresees inflation hovering within the 2-3% target range. Ferguson Financial Planning | CI Assante Wealth Managem
• The poor GDP data plus inflation raises potential stagflation risks and complicates the outlook for the Bank of Japan. Ferguson Financial Planning | CI Assante Wealth Managem
• Global output growth is skewed smoothly, less definitely, down to 2.8% for global growth in 2025-2026, and although global oil prices have dropped, increasing tariff barriers on global trade, and overall inflation of 4% in the United States. Somvisit
• Global Commodity Price Softening: While still subject to geopolitical risks, a general softening in global commodity prices (especially crude oil, which India heavily imports) has also provided some relief on the imported inflation front. Serrari Group - Serrari | Finance Tips, Tools, Macro &
• The Fed has kept interest rates steady but is closely monitoring the impact of tariffs and inflation risks before making policy adjustments. Bitrue

Last updated: 08 July 2025