[New] Signs of progress for a potential peace deal in the Iran war have helped cool oil prices and, in turn, have eased inflation worries that could prompt a Fed rate hike and pushed Treasury yields lower.
ST
[New] Oil prices eased due to peace talks in Iran, lowering inflation fears and Treasury yields, while stocks like SpaceX and Airbnb surged after positive reports.
ST
[New] Turning to the Middle East, Egyptian data on Monday will likely show the inflation rate rose by more than a percentage point, from 14.3% in June, due to elevated oil prices.
financialpost
[New] Norwegian policymakers are likely to keep borrowing costs steady on Thursday, but analysts expect another close decision that could be swayed by the July inflation report due on Monday.
financialpost
[New] The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold its key rate steady at 4.35% on Tuesday after slightly softer than expected inflation in the second quarter prompted traders to slash bets on another interest rate hike in 2026.
financialpost
[New] The 'Super El Nino' triggering record temperatures across Europe could add a full percentage point to inflation in 2027, hampering central bank efforts to slow down price rises, a top investment bank has warned.
City AM
[New] Reports this week that a new deal is being negotiated to reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz waterway, and thereby facilitate more energy exports, could help keep Treasury yields stable / lower while easing pressure on headline inflation in the months ahead. / Iraninvesting.com
[New] Hopes for an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have eased concerns over energy-driven inflation, while markets have lowered expectations for a Fed rate hike in September.
investing.com
[New] A yen that keeps sliding risks pushing inflation higher still through the import channel, complicating the Bank of Japan's careful normalization path and eroding public support. / Japaninvesting.com
[New] The most immediate downside risk remains a prolonged escalation of the Middle East conflict that lifts inflation and long-term interest rates and pushes the Federal Reserve toward renewed policy tightening.
Fox Business
[New] Although Japan's core inflation has remained below the BoJ's 2% target over the last four months, analysts predict a jump in the last quarter of the year to the mid-2% range on higher oil prices following the Iran war.
The Guardian
[New] Gold has rallied on safe-haven demand and hopes of US interest rate cuts, although a stronger dollar and a crude oil-led inflation scare amid the Iran war have occasionally limited gains.
Mining Weekly
[New] Inflation risks rising again as the U.S. and Iran have reignited hostilities in recent days.
CNBC
A moderation in inflation could pave the way for Federal Reserve rate cuts, improving liquidity conditions for risk assets.
Khaleej Times
As long as millions of barrels remain bottlenecked in the Persian Gulf, Brent crude will maintain a structurally elevated floor, keeping sustained pressure on consumer inflation and directly limiting global economic growth potential throughout the remainder of the year.
ClaritX
A fragile truce in the Middle East, persistent energy-driven inflation, shifting U.S. trade policy and escalating regional pressures from Europe to Africa will collectively shape geopolitical risk in the third quarter.
Stratfor
Inflation in Peru's capital accelerated faster than expected in July as food and transport prices climbed, staying above the target range for a fifth straight month.
financialpost
The impact of the Middle East conflict has been less severe than initially expected, although elevated energy and input costs continue to pose risks to inflation and industrial activity.
Daily Tribune
Oil prices are a risk, but otherwise the Fed should get a little more relaxed about inflation.
investing.com
The Bank of England has kept UK interest rates on hold as it warned that a further escalation in the Iran war could drive inflation above 4% in 2027, adding to cost of living pressures on households.
The Guardian
A hotter-than-expected inflation reading could revive expectations of a rate hike later in 2026, lifting Treasury yields and the dollar while weighing on Bitcoin.
investing.com
Cooler-than-expected inflation data could reinforce the Fed's wait-and-see approach, weighing on the U.S. dollar and supporting Bitcoin and other risk assets.
investing.com
If investors demand greater compensation for inflation, political risk, and endless Treasury issuance, long-term rates can rise even while the Fed cuts its short-term target.
Armstrong Economics
Last updated: 11 August 2026
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