Our Scans · (FS.6.07) Inflation · Weekly Summary

• [New] The US economy is expected to slow further in the second half of the year, pressured by tight financial conditions, increasing delinquency rates, and rising inflation risk amid ongoing trade policy uncertainty and escalating conflict in the Middle East. Krungsri2020
• [New] Inflation in the U.S. will spike in mid-2025 and reach 3.9% by the end of 2025, driven primarily by the cascading effects of trade barriers. ROGER MONTGOMERY
• [New] Should inflation rise again in the US, leading the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates, global borrowing costs will rise, slowing economic activity. UQ News
• [New] Australia's central bank lowered its key policy rate to 3.85%, flagging a shift in focus from inflation to downside growth risks as it trimmed GDP growth forecasts to 2.1% for 2025 and foresees inflation hovering within the 2-3% target range. Ferguson Financial Planning | CI Assante Wealth Managem
• [New] The poor GDP data plus inflation raises potential stagflation risks and complicates the outlook for the Bank of Japan. Ferguson Financial Planning | CI Assante Wealth Managem
• [New] Global output growth is skewed smoothly, less definitely, down to 2.8% for global growth in 2025-2026, and although global oil prices have dropped, increasing tariff barriers on global trade, and overall inflation of 4% in the United States. Somvisit
• [New] Global Commodity Price Softening: While still subject to geopolitical risks, a general softening in global commodity prices (especially crude oil, which India heavily imports) has also provided some relief on the imported inflation front. Serrari Group - Serrari | Finance Tips, Tools, Macro &
• [New] The Fed has kept interest rates steady but is closely monitoring the impact of tariffs and inflation risks before making policy adjustments. Bitrue
• [New] From Trump's tariffs to tensions in the Middle East, the threats that could potentially reignite inflation continue to rise. Insider Monkey
• [New] Traditionally driven by macroeconomic indicators such as inflation, interest rates, and GDP growth, central banks are now recalibrating their focus toward global political developments and risks-marking a pivotal evolution in reserve management strategies. IBAFIN
• [New] Asian shares traded mixed on Monday as investors anxiously waited to see if Iran would retaliate against U.S. attacks on its nuclear sites, with resulting risks to global activity and inflation. EconoTimes
• [New] The Eurosystem staff projections see inflation staying temporarily below 2% in 2026 - driven in part by a stronger euro and a decline in energy commodity prices - before returning to target in 2027. European Central Bank
• [New] WTI oil futures surged over 6% to rally as high as $78.40 per barrel, as investors anxiously waited to see if Iran would retaliate against the U.S. attacks, with resulting risks to global activity and inflation. IC Trading | Official Blog | Blog
• [New] A disruption could push oil prices toward £80 per barrel, reigniting global inflation. International Business Times UK
• [New] A prolonged disruption could push prices to $ 100-$ 130 per barrel, fueling inflation and threatening global economic stability. oilprice.com
• [New] As if undisciplined budget policies were not sufficient reason for foreign US Treasury bondholders to fear that the US might try to inflate its way out of its debt problem, Trump is exerting enormous pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates aggressively. American Enterprise Institute - AEI
• [New] The Bank of Canada will get a fresh look at inflation this week - a picture that's grown increasingly murky due to tax shifts and trade tensions. Yahoo News
• [New] If prices hit $130 per barrel, inflation in the US could jump to 5.5%, forcing the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates - an action that could derail the fragile economic recovery. Middle East Monitor
• [New] Currency Volatility: Global capital integration exposes India to Foreign portfolio investor outflows, causing rupee volatility & inflation risks. PMF IAS
• For the global economy, an expanding conflict adds to the risk of higher oil prices and an upward impulse to inflation. financialpost
• The intensifying conflict in the Middle East has driven energy prices higher, which could put upward pressure on inflation and complicate future monetary policy decisions. Krungsri2020
• A rise of 10 percentage points in shipping cost inflation could increase inflation in OECD countries by around 0.5 percentage points on average. Economics Observatory

Last updated: 01 July 2025