Our Scans · (FS.6.07) Inflation · Weekly Summary

• [New] Inflation - Consumers are expecting lingering elevated prices for goods and services to continue into 2026, affecting spending and discretionary purchases. sdwia.com
• [New] The Bank of England should be focussed on meeting the 2% inflation target - the MPC remit - not boosting growth, which will raise not lower inflation. City AM
• [New] Thursday's U.S. inflation data, a key gauge for the Fed's policy outlook following its December rate cut, will likely be the most-watched release for fixed income and equities. Lance Roberts
• [New] Inflation in the eurozone risks deviating significantly from the target due to divergences in monetary policy, and the ECB needs to take action. investing.com
• [New] On policy, the Fed has already taken rates down from the extremes of the 2022-2023 tightening cycle toward the mid-3% range, and the bias for 2026 is toward incremental cuts, not hikes, as long as inflation stays in the low-to-mid-3% band. investing.com
• [New] Recent Fed commentary signals limited concern over inflation, with Chair Powell this week pointing to easing price pressures, continued services disinflation and largely tariff-driven goods inflation, expected to peak in early 2026 before easing in H2 2026. / USA investing.com
• [New] The inflation outlook for 2026 looks more favourable than envisaged by the November central bank projection, so we still see room for about 75 bp cuts in the main policy rate in 2026. / Poland investing.com
• [New] Wages are growing faster than inflation for a little more than half of the workforce, which is why many people might not feel better off. The Atlantic
• [New] The Bank of England, on evidence of a softening economy and lower inflation, is forecast to bring rates down to 2.75% in 2026 before pausing. Morgan Stanley
• [New] In Japan, headline and core inflation have been above target for the past couple of quarters, but the underlying trend has been weaker, prompting a forecast for inflation to edge below 2% in late 2026 and then rise back to policymakers' 2% target in 2027. Morgan Stanley
• [New] Global gross domestic product is likely to moderate to an estimated 3% in 2025 and 3.2% in both 2026 and 2027, while inflation cools across different regions, allowing policymakers to reduce interest rates further. Morgan Stanley
• [New] With expected sub-2% inflation forecasts for the next three years, we see any following ECB rate change as a cut, not a hike, at least through late spring in 2026. Morningstar, Inc.
• [New] That inflation is still set to undershoot in 2026 and growth will remain weak overall: Then there is nothing holding the ECB back from further rate cuts. Morningstar, Inc.
• [New] Any further disruptions in trade could threaten jobs in Canada, while also putting more pressure on inflation to force the Bank of Canada to raise rates. BNN Bloomberg
• [New] Median PCE inflation for 2025 is now 2.9% (down from 3.0%) and for 2026 is 2.4%, revised down from 2.6%. Henrik Zeberg
• [New] The Fed would be caught between the risks of re-igniting inflation by easing too quickly or driving joblessness by staying too tight. The Budget Lab at Yale
• [New] Despite rising costs and inflation, consumer restaurant spending rose steadily throughout 2024, and the National Restaurant Association now predicts an industry that will reach sales of $1.5 trillion and a labour force of 15.9 million by the end of 2025. American Recruiters
• [New] Headline PCE inflation is expected to decline from 2.9% in 2025 to 2.4% in 2026. Meta Trading Club
• [New] With the ECB's mandate to maintain price stability at 2% inflation, higher inflation could justify higher rates, not cuts. Morningstar, Inc.
• U.S. stocks rose on Friday after a tame inflation report reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its final meeting of the year next week. Investopedia
• A weakening dollar in early 2026 and resilient commodities like gold / base metals offer strategic opportunities amid global central bank rate normalization and inflation hedging demands. Ainvest
• Bond investors have warned the US Treasury that Hassett may prioritise Trump's preferences and push for aggressive easing, raising the risk of higher inflation and a Treasury sell-off. investing.com

Last updated: 16 December 2025