Our Scans · (FS.6.07) Inflation · Weekly Summary

• [New] Still, with the eurozone economy struggling to sustain growth over 1% year-over-year in the coming quarters, and inflation threatening to slip below 2% in the coming months, the risk of a rate cut in H1 2026 should not be entirely ruled out. Marc to Market
• [New] Sticky inflation backs the Riksbank's forecast that the policy rate will remain at 1.75% until Q3 / Q4 2026. / Sweden Brown Brothers Harriman
• [New] Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates, that imposing an additional 60% tariffs on China, and if China retaliates, would result in US real GDP to fall by more than 0.2% below baseline by 2026, and the US inflation to increase by 0.7 ppts above baseline in 2025. MUFG Research
• [New] Progress in lowering inflation has stalled and cautioned that further rate cuts could risk entrenching higher inflation and undermining the Fed's credibility regarding its 2% inflation target. Advisorpedia
• [New] Romania's real GDP growth is expected to remain low at 0.7% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026, as the necessary fiscal consolidation dampens private and public consumption, in turn further affected by a surge in inflation. Economy and Finance
• [New] Tokyo's hotter-than-expected inflation has traders bracing for a BOJ rate hike as early as December, with odds climbing sharply for further tightening in 2026. investing.com
• [New] Traders are ramping up bets on two BOJ hikes by October in 2026 as inflation and wage signals strengthen. investing.com
• [New] Inflation is expected to remain close to target, meaning the ECB is unlikely to change interest rates. Morningstar, Inc.
• [New] What has been delivered in 2025 is higher power prices, higher inflation and a really challenging budget bottom line for individual households, with the prospect of higher interest rates in 2026. / Australia The Conversation
• [New] The OBR downgraded UK growth in 2026 to 1.4% down from 1.9%, and it also upwardly revised inflation. investing.com
• [New] Medicare will pay billions of dollars less in 2027 for 15 drugs, including major medicines for cancer, asthma and metabolic conditions, after completing the second annual round of price negotiations required under the Inflation Reduction Act. Healthcare Dive
• [New] 52% of executives expect slower business growth in 2026 compared to 2025, with competitive intensity, macroeconomic uncertainty, and inflation topping the list of executive concerns. Bain
• [New] The Office for Budget Responsibility has upgraded its UK growth forecast to 1.5% for 2025, with inflation expected to fall to 2.5% in 2026 and return to target by 2027. Insurance Business
• [New] The OBR expects inflation to have peaked in Q3 2025, and that it will fall progressively to the Bank of England's 2% target in Q1 2027. GOV.UK
• [New] Government policy will reduce CPI inflation by 0.4 percentage points in 2026-27, supporting the Bank of England to get inflation back to target. GOV.UK
• [New] New York is doing something it has never done before-issuing an inflation relief check as part of its 2025-2026 state budget. Enki Library
• [New] Inflation is expected to average 1.7% in 2025 and rise to 3.2% in 2026, returning within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' target range of two to four percent. philstar.com
• [New] As higher taxes could weigh on growth and inflation, weaker performance may push the Bank of England to cut interest rates from the current 4%. Euronews
• [New] Consumers' expectations about inflation over 2026 remained elevated in November, with the median rising to 4.8%. Fox Business
• The ECB is quite hawkish on growth, believing GDP growth will be weaker in 2026 than in 2025, while at the same time believing that inflation will fall as low as 1.7% in 2026. Morningstar, Inc.
• DWS's Eichmann expects an inflation rate of 2.1% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026, essentially the ECB achieving its target. Morningstar, Inc.
• Goldman Sachs expects the ECB to maintain its deposit rate at 2% through 2026, unless inflation softens sharply. Morningstar, Inc.
• If inflation cools and the Fed hints at lowering rates, Bitcoin might benefit from increased investment as people look for alternatives to cash. Bitget

Last updated: 02 December 2025