Our Scans · (FS.6.07) Inflation · Weekly Summary

• [New] If production levels are maintained, oil prices will remain stable; further production cuts could push up inflation; and increased production could mean weaker global demand. ODaily
• [New] If growth in the U.S. economy sputters next year and inflation remains stubbornly elevated, then we could face a difficult condition called stagflation. Advisorpedia
• [New] The Fed will be challenged to cut rates too much in 2025 because of the stubbornly resilient inflation pressures. Advisorpedia
• [New] BBVA and IMF updates projected slower GDP expansion amid global pressures, with inflation at 4.56% and Selic steady at 15%. The Rio Times
• [New] Despite the stronger-than-expected Tokyo inflation data, traders marginally favour no move from the BOJ in December, with a full 25 basis point hike not priced in until April when annual wage announcements will be made. investing.com
• [New] The hawks at the Bank of England - which meets next week - argue that inflation at 3.8% risks morphing into a much more persistent episode of price pressure. investing.com
• [New] The Fed's slow pivot, persistent 3% + inflation, and record-high fiscal deficits could constrain risk appetite. investing.com
• [New] Disinflationary forces like tighter credit, falling commodity prices, or global growth slowdowns could reduce inflation risk premiums embedded in gold. investing.com
• [New] If the Fed aggressively lowers the fed funds rate to below 3% while inflation remains above its 2% target, it risks unsettling inflation expectations. Bailey Wealth Services
• [New] Conversely, a Pessimistic Scenario could see stagnation or recession if core inflation remains persistent, U.S. trade policies become more restrictive, and domestic political uncertainty worsens, leading to capital flight and prolonged economic stagnation. The Chronicle-Journal
• [New] The imposed tariffs will reduce the U.S. growth rate by 0.23 percentage point in 2025 (0.62 percentage point in 2026), lead to an average tax increase per U.S. household of $1,300 in 2025 ($1,600 tax hike in 2026), and drive inflation roughly one percentage point higher. Tax & Accounting Blog Posts by Thomson Reuters
• [New] Global trade tensions, inflation, and recession fears have weighed heavily on all risk assets, and Bitcoin has not been spared. BeInCrypto
• [New] Global risks-like oil price volatility or unexpected geopolitical flare-ups - could feed inflation and spook bond markets. City Creek Mortgage
• [New] The New York Fed's monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations revealed a noticeable shift: consumers are now expecting higher inflation over 2026, with median expectations climbing to around 3.4%. City Creek Mortgage
• [New] Between political battles over the Fed, a consumer base that refuses to slow down, and inflation that is not easing as quickly as hoped, there is more risk of mortgage rates heading higher than lower in the near term. City Creek Mortgage
• [New] The IMF reinforced the hawkish risk, projecting UK inflation at 3.4% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026 and urging the BOE to be very cautious with cuts. Stock Market Update
• [New] In the US, there have been some worries around perceived threats to the Fed's independence, which in turn could lead to higher inflation in the long term. UK - EN - Intermediary
• [New] While eurozone rates are now on hold, and UK rates may take some time to fall given sticky inflation, there is scope for the US to see further cuts over the remainder of the year and into 2026. UK - EN - Intermediary
• [New] Policymakers at the US central bank are widely expected to cut rates by another 25 basis points next week, despite the September acceleration in inflation. ST
• [New] US inflation hit 3% for the first time since January last month, but remained milder than many analysts had expected. BBC News
• [New] The upcoming PCE inflation report, the Fed's preferred gauge of price growth, will be pivotal in determining whether policymakers can afford to maintain their hawkish stance into early 2026. / USA investing.com
• [New] While headline inflation may continue to ease, core inflation, reflecting sticky prices in services and non-core sectors, could remain elevated, posing a challenge for Banxico. / USA The Chronicle-Journal

Last updated: 04 November 2025