Our Scans · (FS.6.07) Inflation · Weekly Summary

• [New] BRP has long projected inflation slightly below 5% in 2025 and now sees it just under 4.5%. valorinternational
• [New] Even if the IPCA stays within the tolerance band, underlying services inflation - more tied to economic cycles - is expected to end 2025 at around 6%. valorinternational
• [New] Contained inflation and an accommodative Fed reduce the chances that long-term interest rates surge, another key risk given the rising cost to service the U.S. government's huge and growing debt load. Oak Partners, Inc.
• [New] Consumer spending in Europe is projected to strengthen in 2026, supported by lower inflation and falling interest rates. Ksapa - en
• [New] The inflation rate for the Asia Pacific region is expected to be 2.5%, with various sub-regions experiencing slightly different rates. For Insights Consultancy
• [New] The UK would face the highest rate of inflation among G7 nations both in 2025 and 2026, as result of rising energy and utility bills. BBC News
• [New] At a predicted average of 3.4% in 2025, the UK will have the highest level of inflation in the G7 bloc in 2025 and 2026, the IMF said, an upwards revision from previous estimates of 3.2%. Morningstar, Inc.
• [New] With UK inflation currently at 3.8%, it means wage growth will likely be the most influential factor in state pension payment increases. Morningstar, Inc.
• [New] The UK's inflation rate is forecast to be the highest among the G7 group of developed nations in 2025 and 2026. BBC News
• [New] The UK is expected to have the highest inflation rate among advanced economies in 2025 and 2026, while GDP per capita will also lag the rest of the G7. eMarketer
• [New] The IMF kept its global headline inflation forecast largely unchanged at 4.2% for 2025 and 3.7% for 2026, but said that there was divergence among countries, with inflation forecasts rising in the US as firms that have held off on raising prices begin to pass on tariff costs to consumers. The Business Standard
• [New] Russia's inflation rate will rise to 9% in 2025 - more than double the global average forecast of 4.2% - before easing to 5.2% in 2026. The Moscow Times
• [New] The Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts in late 2025 could provide a tailwind for equities, though their effectiveness may be constrained by persistent inflation and geopolitical risks. Ainvest
• [New] The UK will face the highest rate of inflation among the G7 in 2025 and 2026, driven by surging energy and utility bills. Insights
• [New] UK inflation is on course to average 3.4% in 2025, up from its previous estimate of 3.2%, and then slow slightly to 2.5% in 2026, up from its old prediction of 2.3%. The Guardian
• [New] The IMF is forecasting a smaller decline in US consumer price inflation for 2025 to 2.7%, declining only to 2.4% in 2026. Al Jazeera
• [New] The IMF is forecasting a smaller decline in U.S. consumer price inflation for 2025 to 2.7%, declining only to 2.4% in 2026. BNN Bloomberg
• [New] Assuming tariffs do not continue to increase, there will be a one-time price adjustment at a higher price level, with the inflation percentage actually coming down by the end of 2026, with the caveat that inflation is going to peak at 3.4%, well above the desired 2% Fed target. Logistics Management
• [New] UK Sticky inflation has dampened expectations that there will be another interest rate cut in 2025. Dafferns Wealth
• [New] China's rare earth restrictions alone could lead to double-digit wholesale inflation. FinancialContent
• The Fed will continue to focus on inflation, which could spike in the next year if policies like tariffs, deportations, and cuts to government programs drive prices higher. Morningstar, Inc.
• The U.S. government shutdown will likely delay publication of U.S. trade data, an important gauge of how tariffs are impacting U.S. inflation. BlackRock
• With global protein demand on the rise and food inflation persisting, speakers will warn against the risks of reducing domestic food production while encouraging land abandonment. The Northern Farmer

Last updated: 21 October 2025