Our Scans · (FS.6.07) Inflation · Weekly Summary

• [New] The escalation in the Middle East had erased an expected growth upgrade and pushed its G20 inflation projection for 2026 up to 4.0%. Yahoo Finance
• [New] Disruptions to energy supplies stemming from conflict in the Middle East are expected to drive an increase in headline inflation. KPMG
• [New] UK GDP growth is expected to slow to 0.7% in 2026, down from 1.3% in 2025, as pressures from a fresh energy price shock push up inflation, weigh on spending and delay interest rate cuts. KPMG
• [New] UK GDP growth is expected to slow to 0.7% in 2026, down from 1.3% in 2025, as pressures from a fresh energy price shock push up inflation. KPMG
• [New] The OECD has slashed its 2026 UK growth forecast to just 0.5% - the steepest revision of any major economy - and now projects UK inflation hitting 4%, up 1.5 percentage points from its December forecast. US Recession News
• [New] Inflation could reach as high as 5% if current oil and gas prices are sustained - more than double the Bank of England's 2% target. / UK US Recession News
• [New] India's Chief Economic Advisor has issued a warning, stating that if oil prices stay elevated at $130 per barrel for two to three quarters, inflation could rise to 5.5% while GDP growth could slow to 6.4% in the next fiscal year. Multibagg AI
• [New] Food price inflation in Europe is expected to build throughout 2026 and intensify in 2027, driven by surging energy costs from escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. CNS Media
• [New] Interest-rate futures show traders have scaled back expectations for multiple cuts, with many now expecting the Fed to hold rates steady through most of the year due to resilient growth and renewed inflation risks tied to energy prices. / USA usfunds
• [New] The U.S. inflation will be up 4.2% in 2026. LOGISTICS MANAGERS' INDEX
• [New] Headline inflation will reach 4.2% in 2026. / USA IndexBox Inc.
• [New] In the United States, the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge aims to produce at least 3 billion gallons by 2030 and 35 billion gallons by 2050, supported by federal tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act providing up to US$1.75 per gallon for qualifying SAF. Persistence Market Research
• [New] While the rise in energy costs will push the annual inflation rate even higher over the next few months, we do not expect a repeat of 2021/22 when the Fed called inflation pressures transitory only to then hike rates 525 bp as inflation got within touching distance of 10%. investing.com
• [New] With oil staying elevated and no clear resolution in the Middle East, we expect firmer inflation, with headline PCE peaking at a year-ago pace of 3.7% in Q2 and remaining sticky in a 2.7-3.1% range through year-end. FXStreet
• [New] The energy shock linked to the war in Iran would generate renewed inflationary pressures, and instead of gradually converging back to target, inflation is projected to reach 3.2% before declining only gradually to 2.5% in 2027. economic-research.bnpparibas.com
• [New] In 2025, the average annual growth rate stood at +1.2% and is expected to slow to +0.8% in 2026, as fiscal policy should support activity while supply constraints and inflation temper it. / Japan economic-research.bnpparibas.com
• [New] The Reserve Bank of India maintained its key policy rate at 5.25% due to ongoing West Asia tensions, warning of supply chain disruptions impacting inflation and growth. Economic Times
• [New] Inflation could rise to 4.2% by the end of 2026, driven in large part by international pressure on oil, gas, and other commodities. PBMares
• [New] The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) now expects G20 inflation to reach 4.0% in 2026 - about 1.2 percentage points higher than previously forecast - while also lowering growth expectations. BakeryAndSnacks.com
• [New] The solid increase will likely reinforce the Federal Reserve's focus on inflation risks amid a rapid run-up in energy prices sparked by the war in the Middle East. CPA Practice Advisor
• [New] The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has transformed a geopolitical risk into a global supply shock affecting energy markets, supply chains, inflation dynamics, and monetary policy worldwide. Rothschild & Co
• The macro-economic impact is straightforward: higher energy, freight and farm inputs will re-accelerate inflation and raise the odds the Fed stays higher for longer - or even hikes interest rates later in 2026. Lockton

Last updated: 14 April 2026