(LF.14) Life Below Water

In September 2015, 193 world leaders agreed to 17 Global Goals for Sustainable Development. If these Goals are completed, it would mean an end to extreme poverty, inequality and climate change by 2030.
Goal 14: Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development.

• [New] If temperatures continue to rise, diseases will spread faster and sea levels will rise between 10 and 32 inches or higher by the end of the century.
• [New] The global coalition will work toward the maritime industry's goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions from shipping through innovation and advancement, aspiring to having commercially viable zero emission deep sea vessels entering the global shipping fleet as early as 2030.
• Low-sulfur fuel availability in ocean shipping - and the higher prices expected to be paid for it - will not have the chaotic effect on the transportation and fuel markets as many are predicting.
• In the coming decades, ship traffic through the Red Sea and Suez Canal is expected to continue to increase strongly, with a concomitant rise in nitrogen oxide emissions.
• Implementation of IMO 2020 will impact prices markedly for crude oil and refined products - well beyond just marine fuel - beginning in the second half of 2019.
• Large uncertainty arises from potential ice mass-loss from Antarctica that could rapidly increase sea level rise in the second half of this century.
• Sea levels rose 7.5 inches (0.19 meters) between 1901 and 2010 and IPCC estimates sea levels will rise as much as 2.2 feet (0.66 meters) by 2100 in its medium scenario.
• The implementation of International Maritime Organisation's (IMO) new sulphur limit of 0.5 per cent for marine fuels, down from 3.5 per cent, from the first day of 2020 will have ramifications for refiners around the world, which in turn affects the producers of different grades of crude.
• Indonesia will not enforce the 2020 global rules mandating low- sulphur marine fuels on its domestic shipping fleet because of the high cost of cleaner fuel.
• It is becoming increasingly common to test and use gasoil volumes as marine fuels: Demand for MGO is expected to at least double next year.
• Changes to reduce the levels of sulphur in marine fuels coming into force in 2020 will help to clean up the world's shipping lanes and transform a sector which accounts for about 5.5m barrels a day of oil demand.
• Marine heatwaves like the one that created the Blob have become more frequent in the past century and will likely worsen as Earth's temperatures continue to rise with climate change.
• The new sulfur cap for the global ocean shipping industry will increase demand for distillate fuel, which is expected to hike the price of diesel for land-based consumers.
• The US has joined several flag states to seek an eleventh-hour change to an international clampdown on dirty marine fuels, injecting uncertainty into a long-anticipated shift to lower harmful emissions.
• The IEA expects supply of fuel oil to remain tight ahead of the marine-fuel sulphur cap in 2020, because of refinery upgrades and a reduction in medium-heavy crude production.
• The International Maritime Organization (IMO) environmental regulations, aimed at lowering the sulfur content in marine fuels, could create a supply gap and price spike for similar grades of petroleum products, including diesel.
• The change in marine fuels will benefit refiners by increasing their profits, compared to average.
• In the short term, IMO 2020 will increase ocean freight rates for both commercial exports and U.S. food aid shipments, especially early in 2020 as shipping companies are scrambling to rewrite contract specifications.
• One of the biggest concerns coming from the marine industry is the uncertainty around whether using the new IMO 2020 compliant fuels will impact operability.
• The levels of slurry oil in marine fuels is expected to increase post IMO 2020, which may contribute to fuel instability.
• Uncertainty regarding projected sea level rise by 2100 is mainly determined by ice sheets, especially in Antarctica and Greenland, which are losing ice at increasing rates.
• While tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to stay warmer than average, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is expected to remain neutral into 2020 and have a limited influence on Australian climate.

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Last updated: 17 February 2020