Global Scans · Conflict · Weekly Summary

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WHAT'S NEXT?: Rising tensions around are bringing new and regional geopolitical threats and the possibility of eventual global war. Keep abreast of the unfolding drama and know where the risks and opportunities are in the world.

• [New] U.S. Congress is grappling with the most ambitious shake-up of foreign arms-sales rules in years, a debate that could reshape how quickly American weapons reach Europe and other allies. Politico
• [New] Russia's incursions against NATO member states are further raising the risk of conflict between Moscow and the Western alliance. DW.COM
• [New] In a groundbreaking experiment that echoes Cold War-era fears, Chinese scientists have simulated the devastating impact of multiple nuclear detonations on a single target, revealing alarming implications for modern military strategy and global security. Energy Reporters
• [New] The ongoing tensions and negotiations related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could affect supply, while further sanctions could be enacted against purchasers of Russia's oil. EIA - Energy Information Administration
• [New] Moving US forces over the Atlantic is not the only potential problem in the event of a future hot war. Hudson Institute
• [New] In the first two decades of the Cold War, the limited capabilities of Soviet ballistic missile submarines allowed only a strike range that demanded Soviet submarines to break into the Atlantic through the GIUK gap to be able to threaten American targets. Hudson Institute
• [New] Trump has threatened to annex Greenland and incorporate Canada as the 51st state of the US, joined Israel in bombing Iran during the so-called 12-day war, and carried out a deadly campaign of airstrikes against alleged Venezuelan drug traffickers. The Conversation
• [New] The goal for the coming years is to reach an annual production rate of 400 units, enabling the U.S. Army to rapidly field the weapon system that will replace the ageing Army Tactical Missile System. Zona Militar
• [New] Beijing has targeted key vulnerabilities in US electronics and weapons manufacturing. BBC News
• [New] Russia aims to use fear in Europe to gain concessions in its war against Ukraine and a possible future NATO-Russia war. Critical Threats
• [New] Analysts have raised the possibility that North Korea's next-generation Hwasong-20 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), its new Hwasong-11 Ma hypersonic glide vehicle, and other advanced weapons systems will be on display. CNN
• [New] As Gaza enters its third year of war and indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas continue in Egypt, following the peace plan presented by US President Donald Trump, a frail hope is emerging. ACN International
• [New] A moderate escalation of conflict - such as renewed hostilities between Israel and Iran - could disrupt trade routes, raise oil prices, and trigger a 0.5% global GDP decline over two years. Ainvest
• [New] An unexpected geopolitical conflict or a sudden credit crisis could trigger a global risk-off cascade, leading to a severe, albeit likely temporary, liquidity-driven sell-off. Aurpay
• [New] The Pentagon claims that will not happen in real life, that its existing policy is that AI will never be allowed to dominate the human decision loop that makes a call on whether to, say, start a war - certainly not a nuclear one. Massachusetts Peace Action
• [New] Hamas and Israel will begin discussions on a long-term peace deal this week, after agreeing in principle to Donald Trump's 20-point plan for war-torn Gaza. The Independent
• [New] A conflict could certainly take place if the PRC makes a military move to invade Taiwan - some national security analysts say that could happen as early as 2027. SOF News
• [New] The war in Ukraine has been a stark reminder of the volatile security environment and the unpredictable nature of modern conflicts. The Changing Character of War Centre
• [New] North Korea remains as great a threat as ever, and Russia shows no sign of abandoning its war on Ukraine. nippon.com
• [New] In the rugged mountains of Pakistan, the resurgent Pakistani Taliban are waging a relentless and deadly guerrilla war against Pakistani security forces, in the biggest terrorism threat the South Asian nation has faced in a dozen years. FDD
• [New] A rift within Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right coalition is emerging as a flashpoint in efforts to end the war in Gaza, threatening to derail a U.S. push to reshape the political landscape of the Middle East. The Hindu
• [New] North Korea is expected to showcase a new generation of strategic missiles and advanced weapons systems at a massive military parade this week, in what observers say is an attempt to project its growing ability to strike US and South Korean targets. South China Morning Post
• A 220-aircraft fleet would be critical to address growing global threats, both from near-peer adversaries and other potential sources of conflict. Caliber.az

Last updated: 14 October 2025