WHAT'S NEXT?: Crime is morphing away from traditional methods to more sophisticated technological approaches. A decline of traditional hierarchical criminal groups and networks will be accompanied by the expansion of a virtual criminal underground made up of individual criminal entrepreneurs. At the same time, forward-looking agencies are equipping themselves with smart technologies to outfox the criminals. Keep up to date with crime changes below.

• [New] Based on end use, the military segment is expected to reach USD 3.02 billion by 2027 on account of rise in military spending by NATO countries to deal with growing threat of terrorism.
• [New] Central Asian countries remained concerned about the potential spillover of terrorism from Afghanistan, as well as the potential threat posed by the return of their citizens who traveled to Iraq or Syria to fight with terrorist groups, including ISIS.
• [New] Although Palestinian terrorist groups in Gaza and the West Bank continued to threaten Israel, Israeli and Palestinian Authority security forces continued their coordination in the West Bank in an effort to mitigate violence.
• Going on holiday is not an acceptable excuse for travelling during the coronavirus lockdown, police have warned, as the UK is expected to see its warmest day of the year so far this weekend.
• California was forecast to spend $19.4 billion on the criminal justice system, up $341 million from the last year, the vast majority of which - $13 billion - goes to prisons, parole and probation.
• The Equality and Human Rights Commission has warned of the risks to disabled people's human rights posed by the rapid increase in the use of video technology in the criminal justice system in England and Wales during the COVID-19 crisis.
• The increased use of police officers wearing body cameras while on duty over the past decade had raised hopes that the use of force against African Americans would fall.
• Islamic State and other terrorist groups remain a threat today, even if they no longer hold territory in Iraq.
• A Palestinian revolt is likely to find support in the Arab and Muslim worlds if not among governments then among the public, and could become a cause celebre for Islamist terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda, Islamic State and their offshoots.
• Law enforcement assets in Mexico will focus on Covid-19-related lockdowns, and criminal groups are clearly using the economic downturn and lockdowns to build up political capital.
• An ongoing insurgency in the north of Mozambique and terrorist attacks have displaced thousands more and threaten to slow down the development of a US$ 60 billion natural gas project that could help Mozambique to achieve its development goals.
• The ever-worsening crime, weak economic growth and collapsing infrastructure will drive up the costs of living and doing business in South Africa.
• In the last year the overall threat of terrorist attacks has lessened but senior officers are very concerned by the big drop in Prevent referrals.
• If the total losses from a certified act of terrorism were below the program trigger (currently $200 million), insurers with deductibles below the program trigger could sustain losses larger than their deductible without receiving any federal coshare.
• Despite a notable increase in the number of right-wing terrorist incidents during the past five years, jihadist terrorism continues to be the most lethal threat to Europe.
• The U.S. has denounced a ruling by the International Criminal Court that its chief prosecutor could probe alleged war crimes in Afghanistan that may have been committed by U.S. and other forces, intensifying a clash with the Trump administration.
• Amnesty International on Wednesday rebuked Secretary of State Mike Pompeo over new comments bashing the International Criminal Court and threatening court staff - and their family members-investigating alleged war crimes committed by United States forces in Afghanistan.
• Overall counter-terrorism spending will increase by £114 million in 2020-21 to maintain capability and officer numbers in the face of a changing terrorist threat, and to help keep the UK safe.
• A return to non-strategic decapitation policies of the past decade and half will only exacerbate many of Mexico's security problems, including constant fragmentation of criminal groups and the collapse of their own deterrence capacity against rival groups.
• The threat of terrorism will remain a constant feature of the global security environment in 2020 and the threat to Australia and Australian interests will remain.
• There will be no shortage of issues in 2025 given accelerated global trends: conflicts, wars in the OSCE's neighborhood, migration, terrorism, populism, climate change.
• By 2024, one-third of all Smart Cities use cases will be impacted by 5G, and 75% of large cities will use 5G to scale key services such as real-time crime centers, V2I connectivity, and smart stadiums.

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Last updated: 04 July 2020