Global Scans · Trade · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Global trade policies could be upended with a new President in the White House, Brexit, a potential break-up of the European Union and China reacting to these changes in profound ways.

• [New] The interplay of domestic reforms, technological ambitions and international spillovers will shape not only China's trajectory but also the broader contours of global trade, investment and economic security in the years ahead. IndraStra Global
• [New] Global trade could fall to about 35% of GDP - roughly Cold War-era levels - or remain near current levels of about 60%. Cision PR Newswire
• [New] The development of transport corridors within BRICS represents an attempt at a fundamental transformation of logistics in the Global South and an opportunity to reduce dependence on existing trade routes. TV BRICS
• [New] Some major port hubs for Asia-Europe trade, such as Singapore or, to a lesser extent, Jebel Ali, could see their strategic role called into question if part of the trade flows were to shift northwards. Coface
• [New] Guatemala's economic growth is projected to remain steady at +4% in 2026 and +3.8% in 2027, underpinned by resilient domestic consumption, robust remittance inflows and stable export performance. Allianz Trade Corporate
• [New] You will find patisseries, wine shops, open-air markets with imported French cheeses, and a general pace of life that feels more Provence than Caribbean. Villa Pads
• [New] Brazil is expected to export a record 113.6 million metric tons of soybeans in 2026. ADMISI
• [New] Robotics could go mainstream in 3 years and take over 50% of trade tasks in a decade. Business Insider
• [New] Platforms (including SaaS, traceability, and MRV solutions) represent the most mature AgriTech opportunity across Southeast Asia and South Asia, driven by mandatory compliance pressures in export-oriented value chains. Economic Times
• [New] Growth in India is expected to remain robust in current fiscal, underpinned by strong domestic demand, easing financing conditions, and lower US tariffs on Indian goods. PendulumEdu
• [New] The IMF points to potential upsides as faster-than-expected AI productivity gains could lift global growth by up to 0.8 percentage points in the medium term, while progress in trade negotiations and structural reforms across major economies could add a further 0.6 percentage points to global output. forbesindia
• [New] A reduction in US tariffs on Indian goods, from 50 to 10%, has meaningfully improved the trade outlook, and the carryover momentum from a strong FY26 is expected to sustain activity into the next fiscal year. forbesindia
• [New] Policy and geopolitical risks - from trade tensions to elections - can drive episodic volatility, while shifts in global rate expectations can raise correlations during systemic shocks, reducing diversification benefits precisely when they are most needed. Compass Financial Services
• [New] As more of the world's trade takes place regionally and as the US energy supply story becomes complicated by Middle East risk, the long-term case for dollar devolution is gaining tangible, real-world evidence. AdvisorAnalyst.com
• [New] Additionally, global commodity price volatility and climate-related shocks - such as droughts affecting agriculture - pose threats to near-term prospects and add to international trade tensions. Allianz Trade Corporate
• [New] Risks remain from the Middle East war, higher subsidy costs, fiscal pressure, and possible US tariffs on semiconductors. The Asia Cable
• [New] The United States could impose tariffs of up to 50% on Chinese goods if China provides military support to Iran. MEXC
• [New] Another factor that may render the re-direction of trade flows even more emphatic is the further expansion in the BRICS + bloc over the course of the 2025-2034 period - partly via the further widening of the partnership circle as well as through core expansion. / China BRICS
• [New] The highest increase in trade is expected for the China-BRICS + pair, where trade is projected to rise by 5.5%. BRICS
• [New] China's trade growth is projected to increase as it surpasses the US as a trade partner with the Global South. BRICS
• [New] China, the main supplier, has a rule in place that it will not export rare earth minerals or magnets to US defence-related businesses, only to civilian entities like automakers. The AIDEM
• [New] Tariff clouds are clearing, most central banks have dialled back restrictive monetary policy, and in aggregate the world will benefit from additional fiscal stimulus in 2026. Global English

Last updated: 23 April 2026