WHAT'S NEXT?: How we travel, where we travel and whether we travel at all will mean tremendous change in the decades ahead.

• [New] The World Travel and Tourism Council, an association of some of the World's largest global travel agencies is projecting a loss of 75 Million Jobs and 2.1 Trillion dollars in revenue globally.
• [New] The total number of passenger flights in Europe will plummet by more than expected in 2020 as countries fail to coordinate policy on air travel during a pandemic.
• [New] Nearly 12.1 million jobs in the U.S. supported by travel and tourism are at risk of being lost in a worst case scenario.
• [New] The Greek tourism sector is expected to see travel receipts from abroad add up to only between 3.5-4 billion euros for the whole year of 2020, compared to over 18 billion euros in 2019, due to the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic.
• U.S. lodging demand is forecast to increase by a compound annual growth rate of 14.1% over the next four years, recovering to 2019 levels by Q3 2023.
• With tourism contributing to nearly 7% of employment in OECD countries, COVID-19 will lead to a 60% decline in international tourism in 2020, which could go to 80% if recovery is delayed until December.
• The Greek economy is expected to shrink 9% in 2020 due to the effects of the coronavirus pandemic and the lockdown measures that have severely affected international travel.
• Some 2.8 million jobs in Italy which are supported by Travel & Tourism are at risk of being lost in a worst case scenario mapped out by WTTC economic modelling.
• The International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its 2020 oil demand forecast on Thursday, warning that reduced air travel due to the coronavirus pandemic would lower global oil demand in 2020 by 8.1 million barrels per day (bpd).
• Demand for travel is forecast to fall by 58% in 2020, while passenger revenues will decline by over $6 billion compared to the previous year.
• The U.S. economy will miss out on $155 billion in 2020 because of the loss of international travel, putting nearly 12.1 million jobs at risk.
• The UK is forecast to lose £22bn in spending as international tourism plummets, putting almost 3m jobs at risk.
• Airlines are adding back international routes to their networks as coronavirus travel restrictions slowly recede, but the number of frequencies is still far below last year's level and not expected to catch up until 2024 because most people are reluctant, or unable, to fly.
• All parties acknowledge the planned growth of air travel in the coming decades, and GHG emissions will likely increase if stricter measures are not put in place.
• The travel and tourism sector will be significantly weakened due to Jordan's restrictions on tourism and diminished global appetite for travel that will likely continue through all of 2021.
• Over the coming decade we will need bold and ambitious spatial plans to reshape the built environment, helping to reduce the need to travel, and maximising the use of walking, cycling, public transport and shared mobility.
• South Korea's tourist industry has been devastated by the COVID-19 pandemic, with $320 billion lost in exports in the first five months of the year and over 120 million jobs at risk.
• For 2021, Malaysia is expected to record strong recovery in economic growth with the expected lifting of more restrictions on domestic movement and international travel.
• The World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) has forecast 3 million job losses across the UK tourism sector with uncoordinated restrictions deterring travellers.
• In Zimbabwe, the tourism sector forecasts a decline, which may lead to a loss of between US$ 500 million and US$1, 1 billion in tourism receipts.
• The global health crisis has decimated the travel industry and the future remains highly uncertain, with most analysts suggesting that it will take years to recover to pre-crisis levels.
• Given an expected relatively quick rebound in economic growth and the historic resiliency of travel demand, CBRE forecasts strong hotel revenue recovery in 2021 and 2022 with RevPAR returning to pre-recession levels by mid-2023.

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Last updated: 26 September 2020