Economics Brazil has kept its spot in the top 10, despite the ending of the commodities super cycle, tight credit conditions and political turmoil due to various corruption scandals: The economy is expected to grow 2.3% in 2019 after contracting by over 3.0% just a few years earlier. In the fixed-income markets, meanwhile, sovereign interest rates have also been highly volatile, driven by political tensions, the Fed's trend of rate hikes and fears that the global economy could slow down more than expected in 2019. GND sees climate change as a way to direct federal dollars to stimulate economic, social and political opportunity for those excluded from the 2019 economy. The US economy will continue to grapple with policy and political uncertainty, despite a broadly supportive global economic growth backdrop. As a result of the political divisions within the UK and between the UK and the EU that the referendum vote has highlighted and the uncertain consequences of a Brexit, the UK and European economies and the broader global economy could be significantly impacted. A potential escalation of geopolitical tensions may have a severe impact on the global economy via deteriorating sentiment and a rise in risk aversion. Better use of resources could represent an overall savings potential of EUR630 billion per year for the European manufacturing industry. Trade tensions, political events, and an increasing debt burden alongside rising interest rates will all conspire to make 2019 a challenging year for the global economy. Putting the political pressure aside, will be difficult for the Fed to resist cutting interest rates later this year as global economic weakness weighs on the U.S. economy. The Iranian economy is expected to contract by 3.6 percent in 2019 because of U.S. sanctions and reduced oil production. The Euro Zone economy is expected to expand 1.3 percent this year, just over half the U.S. rate - along with political uncertainty in Britain and elsewhere have pressured equities. While political divisions have deepened in recent months, the central risk for the property market and the UK economy has remained the same - a disorderly exit from the European Union. The US economy must contend with a myriad of risks, including trade conflict with China, the recent government shutdown and ongoing political uncertainty due to potential debt limit confrontation later this year. In the fixed-income markets, sovereign interest rates have been highly volatile, driven by political tensions, the Fed's trend of rate hikes and fears that the global economy could slow down more than expected in 2019. The protracted crisis in Libya is expected to continue in 2019 due to interlinked political, security and economic crises that drive conflict, damage the economy, weaken state institutions, and allow for criminal gangs and the existence of armed militias. Despite major political challenges, Deutsche Bank expects the eurozone economy to largely continue on its growth trend next year. The consequences of monetary policy, a hard landing of world's major economies, and political instability present the highest risks for the Ukrainian economy in 2019. China will become the absolute leader in the sphere of economy by the middle of the 21st century. The US fiscal stimulus should keep growth going strong into 2019, but once the fiscal sugar rush wears off at around the same time that tighter monetary policy could start to bite, the economy could be left nursing a hangover heading into 2020. The ECB's programme of quantitative easing will likely end later this year and markets are pricing in gradual interest rate increases from the second half of next year. See full forecast Last updated: 16 July 2019
