Our Scans · (ZY.4.04) Cognitive Science · Weekly Summary

• [New] From 2029 onwards, leading AI systems outperform expert humans at virtually all cognitive tasks, with significant advantages in certain domains, and compress decades of scientific breakthroughs into years. GOV.UK
• [New] From 2029 onwards, AI systems match the performance of an average human at the majority of cognitive tasks, can automate most tasks that a remote human worker could perform, and drive major scientific advances. GOV.UK
• [New] By 2030, AI systems match the performance of an average human across the majority of cognitive tasks, can automate most tasks that a remote human worker could perform, and drive major scientific advances. GOV.UK
• [New] By 2030 AI systems automate many digital workflows as capably as humans and support many scientific advances, but they remain less capable at performing key cognitive abilities. GOV.UK
• [New] From 2029 onwards, leading AI systems outperform expert humans at virtually all cognitive tasks, with significant advantages in certain domains. GOV.UK
• [New] From 2029 onwards, AI can automate most tasks that a remote human worker could perform. GOV.UK
• [New] By 2030, AI can automate most tasks that a remote human worker could perform, driving major scientific breakthroughs, transforming public services, and creating an economic boom. GOV.UK
• [New] Slower AI progress could increase the likelihood that China overtakes the US as the global AI leader. GOV.UK
• [New] China could pull ahead of the USA, with potentially enormous implications for the global order, if combined with the development of transformative AI. GOV.UK
• [New] AI will likely provide a sustained increase to economic growth over the 2030s. GOV.UK
• [New] Slower AI progress could increase the likelihood that an adversary nation overtakes the US as the global AI leader. GOV.UK
• [New] AI could cause significant labour displacement by 2030. GOV.UK
• [New] Automation broadly (including AI and robots) could displace 400-800 million jobs globally by 2030. Robozaps
• [New] Automation - including humanoid robots and AI - could displace between 400 and 800 million jobs worldwide by 2030, forcing up to 375 million workers (roughly 14% of the global workforce) to switch occupations entirely. Robozaps
• [New] Humanoid robots combined with AI could transform entire sectors within 5-10 years, leaving insufficient time for workforce retraining. Robozaps
• [New] Adversary states are developing swarms of AI-controlled drones capable of coordinated combat operations without human intervention, threatening to upset the global military balance. GOV.UK
• [New] Capital is essential given the largest training runs for frontier AI will likely cost over a billion dollars by 2027 (Epoch AI, 2025 e). GOV.UK
• [New] The training datasets of frontier language models have grown 2.7 x per year, and usage trends suggest that public human-generated text data may run out before 2030 (Epoch AI, 2025 c). GOV.UK
• [New] Based on current trends, the rate of advancement in AI capabilities by 2030 would constitute a slowdown in Trajectory 1, a continuation in Trajectory 2, and a take-off (i.e. rapid acceleration) in Trajectory 3. GOV.UK
• [New] AI governance fragmentation in 2026 compels enterprises to adopt live compliance, manage cross-border AI risks, and adapt quickly to evolving regulations. FifthRow - Autonomous AI Apps for Research, Strategy, C
• [New] In 2026, small companies will have an opportunity to conduct efficient marketing campaigns, automate business activities, and improve customer support owing to cheap AI-powered applications. Medium
• [New] AI experts will become the key to high-paying jobs in 2030 by acting as strategic partners to the leadership and predictors of disease outbreaks and optimization of global supply chains, etc. UniAthena

Last updated: 19 June 2026