(ZY.4.14) International Relations [New] The US and the EU are on the verge of a potential trade war, and the potential reelection of Donald Trump could put even more strain on NATO and traditional Western alliances. The federal deficit is projected to keep rising over the coming decade, driving US debt to the highest level since World War II over the next 10 years. Investors projected that with issues including the U.S. and China's trade war and central-bank rate increases in the rearview mirror, the global economy would likely be able to stage a modest rebound in 2020. While the trade war between China and the United States has hogged headlines and driven market anxieties over the past year, an equally large threat to the global economy has gotten little attention: a looming tax war. The biggest risks to the global economy as it heads into 2020 are the continuation of the trade war, the volume of debt in emerging markets, and the potential failure of governments to take appropriate fiscal actions should the global economy decelerate further. While the trade war between the US and China appeared to be dying down, the market could be affected by President Donald Trump's decision to add Chinese firms such as Huawei to a trade blacklist last year. Geopolitics 2020 will be punctuated with geopolitical events which include the never-ending Brexit negotiation, multi-phase trade negotiation between the US and China and the US Presidential election. Signing of the trade deal on Wednesday eases Trump's 18-month trade war aimed at altering China's trade and economic practices, but will leave in place tariffs on about $370bn worth of Chinese imports per year. Despite concerns of slowdown in the European Union, the escalating trade war between the United States and China, and Brexit uncertainty in the fourth quarter, analysts project Hungary to deliver a 5% growth for the whole fiscal year of 2020. The next year will follow a jam-packed 2019, as markets surged from January lows despite trade war escalation, flashing recession warnings, the US House of Representative's impeachment inquiry, and slowing economic growth around the world. China will lower tariffs on products ranging from frozen pork and avocado to some types of semiconductors next year as Beijing looks to boost imports amid a slowing economy and a trade war with the United States. Though tensions between the US and Iran may mark the introduction of drones into more traditional state-to-state warfare, drone use may also render short-lived the twentieth century hope that war can be regulated. President Trump is lashing out against the World Bank for lending to China, the US and China still do not have a trade deal, and global investors are back to fretting the trade war between the world's two largest economies will drag on forever. Officials from major automakers believe Trump will not impose new levies on vehicles from the European Union, Japan or elsewhere amid a trade war with China. The Iraq War inspired the creation of ISIS and gave renewed momentum to al-Qaeda; imagine how war with Iran might mobilize Hezbollah, the richest and best-trained terrorist organization in the world. CBO projects that the US national debt - already at its highest level since immediately after World War II - will climb from 79 percent of GDP today to 95 percent in 2029. With China buying from elsewhere, US farmers should face an oversupply of soybeans and will likely see stocks more than double to record levels by the end of 2018-19. The U.S. outlook faces risks from global and domestic headwinds, including weaker economic growth abroad, persistent trade war uncertainties, and global political risks, particularly as the U.S. Measures of trade and economic policy uncertainty have increased sharply during 2019 and surveys suggest that investors view a trade war as the top risk to the global outlook. The United States is expected to spend more on its military in 2020 than at any point since World War II, except for a handful of years at the height of the Iraq War. See full forecast Last updated: 18 February 2020 Hi, Would you like a quick online demo of our service from an experienced member of our team? Yes No
