International Relations [New] Slower activity in several emerging countries is expected to weigh on global growth this year, with the slowdown more pronounced for the US, Japan and China in 2020. Germany's export driven economy -- the engine of European growth -- will be in for a spell of lackluster growth this year as the global economic downturn deepens and the trade war with China ignited by U.S. president Donald Trump remains unresolved. As a part of Washington and Beijing's truce, the United States has agreed to indefinitely delay placing more tariffs on Chinese imports - including the current threat to put tariffs on about $300 billion worth of goods - as long as the trade negotiations make progress. Gold prices rose to a six-year high on Tuesday, driven by signs that the US Federal Reserve could cut interest rates later this year, owing to economic uncertainties resulting from the US-China trade war. Germany, like most of the European powers, is standing by the nuclear accord with Iran, which the United States unilaterally abrogated, and is opposed to the tougher sanctions and threats of war made by Washington against Tehran. Current oil prices are a tug of war pitting global demand concerns linked to the U.S. and China trade war as well as rising U.S. oil inventories against rising geopolitical risks, specifically Iran, that are threatening global oil supplies. US President Donald Trump says the war with Iran will be short and does not require an exit strategy, echoing US forces' long-standing assumptions in a number of countries, including Iraq. Traders are saying the ECB will try to give the ailing Euro Zone a boost and may even set the stage for more action later this year as an escalating global trade war unravels the benefits of years of monetary stimulus. Oil headed for its biggest monthly slump this year as fears that the U.S.-China trade war will hurt demand overshadowed concern over rising political tensions in the Persian Gulf. Oil traders no longer expect the market to be over-supplied this year, amid optimism a full-blown U.S.-China trade war will be averted, and oil production growth will slow thanks to OPEC cuts and sanctions on Venezuela. Despite a U.S. economy that is forecast to grow above trend with low unemployment, Fed minutes showed concern about external drags such as slowing European growth, the potential of a disruptive Brexit and the ongoing trade war. US president Donald Trump may be waging a trade war on China, but international businesses - including plenty from the European retail world including Farfetch, Whittard of Chelsea and Adidas - continue to look there for new sales and growth opportunities. Recent unexplained bombings in the Persian Gulf have threatened 20% of the world's oil supply and brought the US and Iran to the brink of a war that could define the Middle East, and the US's global standing, for decades to come. A US invasion of Iran could unleash many of Hezbollah's 130,000 rockets toward Israel, and draw Lebanon and Syria into a regional war. The global economy will continue to turn, even if tensions escalate further and with non-OPEC supply likely to grow from 1.9 million barrels a day to 2.3 million next year, barring an all-out war. US LNG and crude exporters could fall victim to the intensifying trade war between the US and China, with Beijing vowing to retaliate with necessary countermeasures after US president Donald Trump threatened to more than double tariffs on Chinese goods. President Trump has withdrawn threats of a trade war with Mexico after it agreed strong measures to stem the number of migrants entering the US, and take more of those who had already crossed. The escalating trade war with China, recession signals from global markets, and a new DOJ antitrust probe are creating enormous downside risks for owners of AAPL shares. As the Trump administration threatens to go to war with Iran and imposes tariffs on China in an escalating trade war, Washington is increasingly colliding with the commercial and military ambitions of the EU powers, led by Germany. Thailand took a neutral stance in the trade war between China and the United States on Tuesday, when it said that it will keep Huawei s technology to develop 5G connections, although it will use US support. Despite the ongoing trade war with the US, Chinese officials have made it pretty clear that they will be allowing foreign fund managers to form wholly-owned ventures to directly raise funds from China's nearly $2 trillion retail mutual fund market, as early as perhaps 2020. The risk is that even more tariffs are applied as President Trump has threatened, and worse still, the US starts a trade war with the EU over car tariffs. See full forecast Last updated: 16 July 2019
