Our Scans · Somalia · Weekly Summary

• [New] The success of previous UN-backed maritime security initiatives, such as the Contact Group on Piracy off the Coast of Somalia, demonstrates the potential for effective multilateral responses to maritime threats. IPI Global Observatory
• One million more people in Somalia could face crisis levels of hunger in coming months due to a forecast drought during the next crop cycle. MarketsFarm
• Forces from Somalia's semi-autonomous Puntland region have captured swathes of territory from Islamic State during a weeks-long offensive they hope will draw increased international support. Counter Extremism Project
• CTP continues to assess that the remaining al Shabaab support zones on the west bank of the Shabelle River will continue to make central Somalia vulnerable to al Shabaab offensives that aim to reinfiltrate previously cleared areas. Critical Threats
• In Somalia, enhanced statistical modeling is empowering local governments to identify critical risks across regions, raise alerts in real-time, and respond more effectively and swiftly to droughts. Netherlands for the World Bank
• Piracy Resurgence in Somalia: After a decade, Somali piracy reemerged due to reduced security measures, increasing risks for shipping in the Indian Ocean. INTER-SPED
• Al Shabaab's reinvigorated presence in central Somalia will pose a greater threat to the SFG-controlled district capital Harardhere, which is on the northern flank of al Shabaab's central Somalia territory in the Mudug region. Institute for the Study of War
• Somalia cited the one China principle and UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 to justify its decision, both of which Beijing regularly uses in its lawfare to delegitimize Taiwanese sovereignty. Institute for the Study of War
• Trump's airstrikes in Somalia mark a significant moment in his counterterrorism strategy, reflecting his commitment to aggressive military action against terrorist threats. Blitz
• Ethiopia has thousands of troops stationed in Somalia which are not part of the AU force and it has not been clear what role they will play in the future. Africa Center
• Nearly 4.6 million people in Somalia will likely experience high levels of acute food insecurity between April and June. WardheerNews
• Ethiopia's withdrawal from the Somaliland agreement would likely lead the Somali Federal Government to reverse its decision to exclude Ethiopian troops from the new African Union mission in Somalia to combat al Shabaab in 2025. Critical Threats
• The peace enterprise can be a great risk to Kenya's national security, as reflected by Al-Shabaab's terrorist attacks in response to Kenya deploying forces in Somalia as well as the more recent threats of war from ranking military officers within the Sudan Armed Forces. Center for Strategic and International Studies
• From the fight against terrorism in Somalia to the political instability in the Sahel and the persistent threat of maritime piracy, the AU's actions have far-reaching implications for global security. World Today News
• The latest operation reinforces the strong security partnership between Somalia and the United States in combating extremist threats. BBC News
• Somalia previously threatened to expel Ethiopian troops from the African Union peacekeeping mission unless Ethiopia renounced its controversial memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, the breakaway region of Somalia. Hiiraanweyn
• The Ethiopian government sent a backchannel message to Egypt via Djibouti that any Egyptian military forces that harm Addis Ababa's interests in Somalia will not be immune from dealing with them. Institute for the Study of War
• Ethiopia sees the political fragmentation and security challenges in Somalia as an opportunity to secure access to seaport. WardheerNews
• The Somali government expects all Ethiopian forces to withdraw from Somalia by the end of 2024 if Ethiopia follows through on its port deal with Somaliland. Institute for the Study of War
• The African Union's latest intervention in Somalia, the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia, was meant to be a beacon of hope. waryatv.com
• Turkey has stepped up its military aid to Somalia by deploying advanced Bayraktar Akinci drones, significantly enhancing Somalia's capabilities to combat the persistent threat posed by Al-Shabaab. waryatv.com
• The decision to procure the Akinci UCAV reflects Somalia's urgent need to counter the escalating threat posed by Al-Shabaab, as well as its efforts to modernize its armed forces. MILITARY AFRICA
• The African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia, or AUSSOM, is expected to have 11,900 personnel operating on the ground in Somalia, including soldiers, police and civilian support staff. Counter Extremism Project

Last updated: 13 June 2025