The Emergence of Dual-Use AI and R&D Integration in Asia-Pacific: A Weak Signal with Disruptive Potential

Asia-Pacific is rapidly becoming a global powerhouse in advanced technology development, driven by massive investments in artificial intelligence (AI), semiconductor autonomy, and dual-use research & development (R&D) initiatives that serve both civilian and military purposes. A weak but critical signal within this broad upheaval is the accelerating integration of AI innovation into large-scale, government-backed dual-use R&D programs—especially in China—which could disrupt global industries, reframe geopolitical dynamics, and challenge established supply chains over the next decade.

What’s Changing?

Multiple developments across Asia-Pacific, particularly in China, India, and Japan, indicate a convergence of advanced AI capabilities with dual-use R&D programs—efforts that simultaneously advance civilian technology and military applications. China’s China Brain Project (2016-2030), for example, channels research on cognitive functions into brain-computer interfaces (BCI) and other dual-use technologies. This effort represents a strategic fusion of neuroscience, AI, and defense applications.

Similarly, China’s New Generation AI Development Plan explicitly targets leadership in both commercial and military AI sectors by 2030, supported by a $20 billion investment aimed at semiconductor chip autonomy and AI R&D facilities (The Word 360).

Meanwhile, semiconductor export controls by the US intended to limit China’s access are met with Chinese breakthroughs such as the Ascend 910 D chip, showing resilience and progress in critical core technologies (Kontronn).

These developments occur alongside Asia-Pacific’s rapid industrialization, expanding 5G/IoT infrastructure, and robust healthcare R&D growth in countries like India and Japan (GlobeNewswire; Knowledge Sourcing).

Other elements of this integrated R&D push include the acceleration of green energy and agri-tech innovation tied to broader geopolitical ambitions within Southeast Asia, leveraging joint R&D ventures and supply chain development to boost regional influence (The Diplomat).

Importantly, China’s leveraging of rare earth element exports as a strategic tool (China Briefing), alongside its ban on some mineral exports to the US (ABC News), underpins these technology ambitions with control over supply chains critical to manufacturing and defense.

Furthermore, the resurgence of GPU availability in China following eased export restrictions could enable full-scale training of AI models, vastly expanding AI development capacity at an accelerated pace (BuiltIn).

Why is this Important?

The integration of AI advancements with dual-use R&D programs marks a subtle but transformative shift with broad consequences:

• Geopolitical and Industrial Competition: The race for AI chip autonomy combined with military-oriented R&D may unsettle current US-led technological dominance, particularly as China leverages 97% of global R&D investments broadly, in comparison with the US’s more narrow focus on defense-unique processes (AEI).
• Supply Chain Vulnerabilities: Dependence on China for rare earth elements and critical minerals could cause sustained disruptions in high-tech and defense supply chains, especially amid bans and export controls.
• Dual-Use Ethical and Regulatory Challenges: The blending of military and civilian AI development within large, state-backed projects raises complex ethical, compliance, and governance questions with implications for arms control treaties and global security frameworks.
• Accelerated Innovation Cycles: Rapid availability of advanced AI hardware and expanded R&D budgets (with incentives such as tax benefits for R&D spending in China) could push innovation cycles past current industrial norms, impacting international cooperation and competition.

In healthcare, the spillover of AI and dual-use technology funding may drive breakthroughs in biotechnology and medical infrastructure, notably in Asia-Pacific’s fastest-growing markets (GlobeNewswire).

Implications

This emergent integration presents both opportunities and risks for stakeholders globally:

• Business and Industry: Companies engaged in AI, semiconductors, biotech, and energy sectors may find themselves navigating unpredictable supply chains and competing with state-backed conglomerates supported by vast R&D funding and regulatory advantages. Preparing for supply constraints in critical minerals and semiconductor components will be crucial.
• Government and Policy Makers: Strategic planners may need to rethink traditional defense R&D models that focus narrowly on military targets. Broadening investments and partnerships may help mitigate threat vectors from dual-use civilian-military technology convergence. Monitoring regulatory trends around AI export controls and ethical frameworks internationally becomes core strategic intelligence.
• Research and Technology Communities: Researchers working at the intersection of AI and dual-use technologies could face increased geopolitical scrutiny and shifting funding landscapes. Collaborations may need to be reassessed in light of potential military applications embedded within civilian projects.
• Society and Ethics: Incorporating safeguards for dual-use AI technologies amid expanding deployment (e.g., brain-computer interfaces, military AI systems) will be critical for managing risks related to privacy, autonomy, and global security. Governance innovations aligned with multidisciplinary oversight might emerge as a necessity.

These changes may accelerate China’s drive toward becoming a global AI innovation hub worth potentially $150 billion by 2030 (VoIP Nuggets). If regulatory pressures increase in Western nations, AI and related R&D might increasingly migrate to jurisdictions with more permissive policies, further amplifying shifts in global R&D centers (ETC Journal).

Questions

• How resilient are current supply chains for rare earth elements and semiconductor components amid geopolitical export controls?
• What investment shifts will be necessary for governments to remain competitive in technology developed through dual-use R&D frameworks?
• In what ways can regulatory and ethical frameworks evolve to govern dual-use AI technologies, including brain-computer interfaces and military AI systems?
• How might businesses strategically diversify partnerships and R&D collaborations to mitigate risks posed by the centralization of innovation in Asia-Pacific?
• Could the acceleration of dual-use AI development lead to unintended security escalations or new arms control challenges? How can these be proactively addressed?

Keywords

dual-use technology; artificial intelligence; China Brain Project; semiconductor autonomy; rare earth elements; dual-use R&D; geopolitics technology

Bibliography

• Against the backdrop of the US continuously tightening semiconductor export controls to China, the R&D progress of the Ascend 910 D demonstrates the potential of Chinese technology companies to achieve breakthroughs in key core technologies. Kontronn
• The PRC's China Brain Project (2016-2030) aims to understand cognitive functions and neural pathways, focusing on R&D of various dual-use technologies, including brain-computer interfaces (BCI). Council on Strategic Risks
• Asia-Pacific: The Asia-Pacific will be growing at the fastest rate during the forecast period, driven by increasing digital transformation and 5G and IoT expansion in China, India and Japan. Knowledge Sourcing
• China accelerated chip autonomy under its Make AI Chips by 2027 program, allocating $20 billion for R&D and production facilities. The Word 360
• China announces its Next Generation AI Development Plan, including goals to be a global AI leader by 2030 - a plan that explicitly calls for military AI advancements. TS2 Tech
• China has banned exports of some rare earths and critical minerals to the US, a move that threatens high-tech industries there. ABC News
• With green-zone GPUs available once again, AI development in China will likely go into overdrive, as companies move beyond stopgap workarounds and resume full-scale model training and inference. BuiltIn
• China AI development is guided by the New Generation AI Development Plan (2017), aiming to make China the global AI leader by 2030. The BFT Online
• DOD will lose in a world where it tries to rely on just 2-3% of the globe's R&D that it spends directly on defence unique solutions under defence unique processes, while China is able to leverage the other 97% in both open and illegitimate ways. AEI
• Beyond infrastructure, China could deepen its engagement through joint R&D initiatives in strategic sectors such as green energy, semiconductors, and agri-tech - areas aligned with both ASEAN's development priorities and China's industrial ambitions. The Diplomat