Global Scans · Brazil · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: A recession in Brazil is expected to bottom out with growth turning positive starting in 2017. Its economy is expected to require a long period of fiscal and monetary adjustment after the political turmoil and public discontent of the last two years.

• [New] Commercial service will start by 2026, more than 100 units are ordered, and forecasts are for selling over 1,000 units, which are expected to create revenue above USD 2 Billion. / Brazil IMARC Group
• [New] The global coffee industry received important news during the week as Brazilian commodity experts forecast record coffee exports for the upcoming 2026/27 crop year. flavorist.com
• [New] Rabo writes that, with expectations for a narrowing interest rate differential between Brazil and advanced economies through 2026 and a potential recovery in the US dollar globally against a fragile fiscal backdrop in an election year, it expects USD / BRL to appreciate towards 5.35 by year-end. investing.com
• [New] USDA anticipates Brazil producing 186 mmt of soybeans and Argentina 50 mmt. DTN Progressive Farmer
• [New] The 3-million-metric-ton increase in Brazilian corn production was well above trade estimates, so it will be increasingly important to watch their weather moving forward. Successful Farming
• [New] For exports, the largest changes are expected for Australia (-1.2 million bales to 4.5 million), India (+500,000 bales to 1.5 million), Brazil (+300,000 bales to 15.0 million), the U.S. (+300,000 bales to 12.3 million), and Turkey (-300,000 bales to 600,000). WWD
• [New] In Latin America, the Brazilian Supreme Court is considering a potentially landmark ruling on the employment status of app-based drivers that could set a binding national precedent. Lewis Silkin
• [New] The BRICS Summit in 2026 will provide a platform for Brazil and Russia to further anchor their economic cooperation within a broader geopolitical context. BRICS
• [New] Brazil is developing regulations to reduce methane emissions from the oil and gas sector, expected by 2026. IEA
• [New] The Eurosystem is working to link its fast payment system with key global partners to improve cross-border payment systems involving the euro and other currencies, including a connection with India by 2027, with similar plans being explored for Switzerland, Brazil and Nexus Global Payments. European Central Bank
• [New] Brazil introduced protective duties for some polymer imports and some analysts predict an intensification of trade defences in 2026. Chemistry World
• [New] Brazilian and Argentine farmers are expected to pull back on application, threatening global yields. Pro Farmer
• [New] Brazil will export 15.9 million tons of soybeans in May, slightly below April's record of 16.75 million tons, and 2 million tons above May last year. UkrAgroConsult
• [New] Globally, the USDA forecasts record soybean supplies in 2026/27, with production increasing over 3% compared with 2025/26 to 441.5 million metric tons (MMT), led by Brazil's ever-persistent production expansion, which is forecast at 186 MMT, up over 3% or 6 MMT compared with 2025/26. American AgCredit
• [New] Brazil is expected to consume approximately 70% of its corn production domestically, up 4.3 percentage points from its five-year average, leaving exportable supplies more limited to the global marketplace. American AgCredit
• [New] Brazil's soybean crop is forecast at 186 million metric tons, while Argentina's production is projected at 50 million metric tons. Grain Journal
• Brazil has 6.89 million developers today, projected to reach 19.6 million by 2030 (third-largest community globally); China is projected at 17.7 million by 2030. Digital Applied
• Demand for mood-support botanicals in Brazil is projected to rise at 7.6% CAGR through 2036, supported by increasing adoption of herbal wellness supplements, growing emotional wellness awareness, and rising demand for natural stress-management solutions. FactMr
• Brazil soybean crop estimates converge near record levels: Forecasts cluster around 177-181 MMT, with strong yields offsetting southern dryness risks. Ag Bull Trading
• If Brazilian farmers scale back use due to cost or availability constraints, crop yields will decline significantly, transmitting shocks directly into global markets. New Food
• Brazil and the US have signed a cooperation deal to expand joint efforts on cross border crime, illustrating the Brazilian Executive will to position Lula's administration in transnational security issues. FTI Strategic Communications

Last updated: 16 June 2026