Global Scans · Indonesia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Indonesia's GDP is forecast to grow at 5% a year over 2016-2020, supported by strong growth in consumer demand and infrastructure investment. She is likely to be among the star economic performers for at least the next decade but at the same time faces great challenges to overcome past political and social issues.

• [New] Multinational corporations with Vietnam operations (manufacturing, outsourced services, R&D centers) are in Q2-Q3 2026 contingency-planning mode: assessing alternate sourcing in Thailand, Indonesia, or India; reviewing contract force-majeure clauses for tariff-driven supply disruptions. Bao Quoc Dan
• [New] Midweek, Indonesia's central bank is expected to hold rates steady, highlighting a cautious policy approach as global uncertainties mount. financialpost
• [New] Recognizing escalating vulnerabilities in the South China Sea, Indonesia is pivoting to bolster its maritime domain awareness and naval capabilities through cooperation in autonomous technologies and interoperability. Ronin's Grips Analytics
• [New] Output has already contracted in Indonesia, and economists warn that manufacturing sectors elsewhere could follow suit once stockpiling tailwinds fade, even in countries benefiting from continued global demand for tech and AI exports. Edge and Odds -
• [New] Earlier, Coordinating Economic Affairs Minister Airlangga Hartarto said Indonesia will implement the B50 biodiesel policy to cut Rp48 trillion (US$ 2.8 billion) in subsidies by blending 50% CPO into diesel. Antara
• [New] Over the medium to longer term, we continue to expect a structural shift away from thermal coal, with declining demand and prices easing back towards US$ 120/t by end-2027. / Indonesia Westpac IQ
• [New] While Malaysia and India produce palm oil mill effluent, volumes remain insufficient to offset Indonesian supply disruptions. Discovery Alert
• [New] India and Indonesia are experiencing rapid penetration of convenience and ready-to-use products, creating new opportunities across both established and emerging categories. CNS Media
• [New] In China, Taiwan, Thailand, Indonesia, and other industrial powerhouses, many petrochemical producers have declared force majeure, invoking emergency provisions to warn that they might be unable to fulfill contractual commitments. The Atlantic
• [New] As 2026's dry season coincides with El Nino, rainfall is expected to be lower. / Indonesia Antara
• [New] Hotter and drier conditions associated with El Nino raise risks for West Africa and Indonesia at a critical stage of the crop cycle. investing.com
• [New] Disruptions at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia and the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo have meaningfully reduced global refined copper output at precisely the moment demand is accelerating. investing.com
• [New] Indonesia, the world's top palm oil producer, recently said it will raise the mandatory blending rate for biodiesel made from palm oil from 40% to 50%. Farm Progress
• [New] IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole): A positive IOD phase developing in tandem with El Nino (forecast for June/July 2026) will amplify drought in Indonesia and Australia. Through my Asian lens
• [New] Alongside aluminium, tin prices are expected to record a moderate decline over the medium term, following current elevated levels supported by persistent supply constraints in key producing countries, particularly Indonesia and Myanmar. PricePedia
• [New] A prolonged war will see credit losses rise in Vietnam, Indonesia, and India. Charlton Media Group
• [New] Indonesia could outlast the impacts of Middle East war-fuelled oil price hikes for up to 10 months without cutting fuel subsidies. Daily Sabah
• [New] Emerging markets in Asia-Pacific, particularly India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Bangladesh, offer substantial growth opportunities driven by rapid industrialization, infrastructure development, and foreign investment attraction. Persistence Market Research
• [New] Indonesia, the world's largest palm oil producer, is expected to experience a longer and more severe dry season in 2026 compared to last year. MarketsFarm
• [New] Biofuel production is projected to grow steadily, led by Brazil's ethanol expansion under RenovaBio and increasing biomass-based diesel output in the U.S., Indonesia, and Brazil. Ag Bull Trading
• [New] Coral Triangle Emergency Protocol: Commission a dedicated mesophotic monitoring buoy network across Indonesia's Coral Triangle; integrate Nexus Radar signals into national disaster risk dashboards within 12 months. Horizon Scan AI
• [New] Even as Indonesia grapples with the challenges of Jakarta, Nusantara is expected to be home to only 2 million people by 2045. NPR

Last updated: 18 May 2026