Global Scans · Indonesia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Indonesia's GDP is forecast to grow at 5% a year over 2016-2020, supported by strong growth in consumer demand and infrastructure investment. She is likely to be among the star economic performers for at least the next decade but at the same time faces great challenges to overcome past political and social issues.

• [New] Governor of Bank Indonesia, Perry Warjiyo, expects Indonesia's economic growth to reach between 4.9% and 5.7% in 2026. idnfinancials.com
• [New] Drier and hotter conditions linked to El Nino in parts of Australia, Indonesia and the wider Coral Triangle raise the risk of bushfires, haze and water shortages. The Traveler
• [New] If policymakers continue to prioritize stability without addressing the root causes of capital inefficiency, Indonesia will not escape from the 5% growth trap. The Jakarta Post
• [New] For Indonesia, a net oil importer, a prolonged disruption could drive up domestic fuel costs and strain the state budget, making de-escalation a strategic necessity. Antara
• [New] The current disruption has triggered announcements of new and strengthened emergency storage capacity, notably in Indonesia and Viet Nam, as well as exceptional demand-restraint measures, including energy conservation campaigns, work-from-home policies and fuel rationing. IEA
• [New] Indonesia's 2026 fuel crisis is defined by strict quotas and B40 maintenance risks. Geotab
• [New] Last month, Indonesia began implementing a new government regulation banning children younger than 16 from access to digital platforms that could expose them to pornography, cyberbullying, online scams and addiction. WRAL
• [New] The European bloc has reached a trade deal with India earlier in 2026 that will remove or reduce tariffs on more than 90% of goods traded between the two after having concluded negotiations on a trade agreement with Indonesia last year. CNBC
• [New] Indonesia's digital economy is projected to exceed $150 billion in gross merchandise value (GMV) by 2026, driven by e-commerce, ride-hailing and digital financial services. The Fintech Times
• [New] Jakarta - Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo estimates Indonesia's economic growth in 2026 will be in the range of 4.9% to 5.7%. Antara
• [New] In the nickel sector, Indonesia is projected to substantially boost its supply by 2026 due to new capacity additions. Octagon AI
• [New] The Central African Republic, Nigeria, South Sudan, Laos, and Brazil are predicted to see the most significant increases in dangerously hot temperatures, while the largest affected populations will be in India, Nigeria, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and the Philippines. Oxford University
• [New] Bank Indonesia is widely expected to leave the policy rate at 4.75% for a seventh consecutive meeting to maintain the stability of the rupiah. Brown Brothers Harriman
• [New] Indonesia's palm oil production is forecast to increase 3% to 48 million tons in 2026-27 on maturing trees and the wider use of higher-yielding seed varieties. ADMISI
• [New] There are great rewards to be gained, in terms of an ever more assertive and confident Indonesia on the international stage, and indeed within the Indo-Pacific region, but also immense risks. Eurasia Review
• [New] The global urban population is projected to reach 70% by 2050, particularly in rapidly growing regions like Nigeria, Indonesia, India and China. Science Publishing Group
• [New] Indonesia will hold off raising subsidized fuel prices despite ongoing oil shocks from the Iran war, with Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa warning any hike could undermine growth and threaten social stability. FDD
• Other regional economies followed, with the Philippines forecasted at 5.3-5.7%, Indonesia at 4.8-5.1%, Malaysia at 4.0-4.3%, Singapore at 1.8-2.1%, and Thailand at 1.6-2.0%. National Statistics Office of Vietnam
• Indonesia's rate decision on Wednesday is expected to see policymakers stand pat as they weigh currency stability against rising imported inflation. financialpost

Last updated: 04 May 2026