Our Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] Nato expansion, specifically Nato expansion into Ukraine, represents not merely a threat but a mortal threat to Russia's very status as an imperialist power. Counterfire
• [New] Equally worrying is the slippery slope of AI which could lead to its integration into US, Russian and Chinese nuclear weapon systems, stimulated by competition, mutual insecurity and the extremely short decision-making time-frame. Pearls and Irritations
• [New] If a new nuclear arms race begins between the US and Russia, the US could upload 800 bombs and cruise missiles stored at military bases back onto B-2 and B-52 bombers in a matter of weeks. Pearls and Irritations
• [New] Russia's spring offensive is underway and is likely to generate incremental territorial gains on the eastern front, but Ukraine's expanded use of unmanned systems will continue to limit the pace and scale of Russian advances. Crisis24
• [New] Russia's energy revenues and battlefield adaptation will help Moscow absorb continued losses, even as Ukrainian strikes constrain parts of its export infrastructure. Crisis24
• [New] Repeated attacks, particularly on Baltic Sea oil export infrastructure, are projected to reduce the daily volume of Russian oil and petroleum products shipped from Russian ports in the short to medium term. Crisis24
• [New] A very reasonable scenario is that Russian President Vladimir Putin could use Gotland to test NATO by trying to take a thin sliver of alliance territory to probe the collective reaction. WHEC.com
• [New] North Korea and Russia will sign a five-year military cooperation plan later in 2026. American Enterprise Institute - AEI
• [New] Russia plans to produce more than 7 million FPV drones in 2026, marking a major expansion of its drone capabilities. Kyiv Post
• [New] Russia plans to produce 7.3 million FPV drones and 7.8 million warheads in 2026. Kyiv Post
• [New] For many businesses, the practical question is no longer whether there is a direct Russia nexus to their activities, but whether ordinary trade, logistics or payment flows present elevated diversion or facilitation risk. Clifford Chance
• [New] Russian business sentiment reached a record low, with 83.3% of companies expecting the economic situation to worsen over the following year. UNITED24 Media
• [New] In stark contrast to the unipolar era of US supremacy now passing away, a multipolar world is emerging in which regional and global power will be dispersed and distributed among multiple states such as China, Russia, Brazil, India, and South Africa, among others. Counterfire
• [New] Recruiters exploit the vulnerability of foreigners in Russia, for example when tourist or student visas expire, when people cannot renew visas or legalize their stay within required timeframes, or when migrants are detained for immigration violations. NV
• [New] Russia is identified as the largest immediate threat to German and Euro-Atlantic security, one that is creating the conditions for a military attack on NATO and is already conducting hybrid operations against Alliance members including Germany. Second Line of Defense
• [New] Russia and the Southern African Development Community have extended their military and technical cooperation deal until 2028, moving a long-running partnership into a new phase of implementation. OkayAfrica
• [New] The United States, Russia, and China each perceive an opportunity to strengthen security cooperation, though each country has different risk tolerances with respect to escalation-Russia being the most willing to stoke the flames of war. Center for Strategic and International Studies
• [New] In the Western Hemisphere, China-Russia defence and security coordination would risk compounding pressure on U.S. interests, even more so if paired with diplomatic and economic tools. Center for Strategic and International Studies
• [New] If the Kiev regime attempts to implement its criminal plans to disrupt the celebration of the 81st anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War, the Russian Armed Forces will launch a retaliatory, massive missile strike on the center of Kiev. The Moscow Times
• [New] Russia is warning diplomatic missions to evacuate staff promptly from Kiev, saying Moscow will carry out a mass strike on the Ukrainian capital if Ukraine tries to disrupt its Victory Day commemorations. The Independent

Last updated: 16 May 2026