Our Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] The US-China rivalry, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Covid pandemic, increased volatility in financial markets and continuing threat of climate change have diminished the trust in the rule based global trading system. The Financial Express
• [New] Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, a commodity price surge and the Covid-19 pandemic have all posed a risk to food supply and security around the world. Agriculture and rural development
• [New] Wheat prices jumped more than $2 per bushel into July on concerns about disruption to global supplies after Russia pulled out of an agreement that allowed Ukraine to ship grain through the Black Sea. Barchart.com
• [New] Analysts warn of a supply glut as exports surge: Iran says it has shipped over 40 million barrels since the US lifted its naval blockade, while Russian exports hit record highs, swelling barrels at sea. LiquidityFinder
• [New] Zelensky warned Russia was preparing a massive strike against Ukraine even as Kiev continued long-range attacks, including a drone strike on the Dubna Satellite Communications Centre near Moscow. Fault Lines
• [New] Ukraine's strikes expose Russian fuel vulnerability. Fault Lines
• [New] If Russia is not checked in Ukraine, strategic analysts warn that its reconstitution efforts are likely to pivot toward the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) and Finland. Ronin's Grips Analytics
• [New] The UK will provide Ukraine with 150,000 drones and 350 air defence missiles and radars by the end of 2026 as part of a loan package of 752 million pound ($992 million) backed by proceeds from frozen Russian assets. Critical Threats
• [New] Periodic Russian communication losses result in drone control disruptions, meaning that Russian forces have fewer drones operating at a given time, reducing Russia's ability to advance. Critical Threats
• [New] Most of NATO is tacitly hoping that Russia-bordering Poland and the Baltics will take on the brunt of rearmament duty. Stars and Stripes
• [New] Poland, which possesses both one of the world's largest economies and a population that expects their leaders to protect them from Russian aggression, has the capacity to rearm without cutting its welfare state. Stars and Stripes
• [New] Only 13% of Germans think the threat from Russia is significant, far from enough to get them to accept any sort of austerity. Stars and Stripes
• [New] The PRC could be training Russian troops to use PRC-made drone technology, which could explain why the more experienced Russian military received training from the PLA. American Enterprise Institute - AEI
• [New] Putin threatened to cut financial aid to Minsk if Belarus did not allow Russian drones to be launched from its soil. Al Jazeera
• [New] Ukraine's disruption of Russian battlefield logistics escalated in the past week, with dramatic attacks on Russian-occupied Crimea and satellite communications centres near Moscow - two regions where Russia is supposedly prioritising air defence. Al Jazeera
• [New] Hopes for further progress were dashed in part by Russian unwillingness to agree to further strategic arms reductions, Russia's cheating on the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea and aggression in eastern Ukraine. War on the Rocks
• [New] Russia has a history of restoring its military faster than expected after a defeat or a period of decline. Foreign Affairs Magazine
• [New] Various European intelligence agencies have shared their assessment that Russia may look to attack a NATO state by 2030, as a way to test NATO's mutual defence commitment. Centre for European Reform
• [New] Russia is already intensifying cyber-attacks, information operations, sabotage and other forms of hostile activity below the threshold of war that might trigger a military response. Centre for European Reform
• [New] Even if Ukraine, with Western help, decisively defeats Russia, Washington and its NATO allies should not dismiss the future Russian military threat or eschew necessary investments in rearmament. Foreign Affairs Magazine
• [New] In 2026, Russian defence spending is projected to reach $180 billion. Foreign Affairs Magazine
• [New] The future Russian military will have more infantry-reversing prior cuts - and more drone formations to provide fire support or conduct precision strikes. Foreign Affairs Magazine

Last updated: 04 July 2026