Our Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] Later, as Russia's military position continues to worsen, renewed concerns are emerging that Vladimir Putin could consider the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. iHeart
• [New] Russia moves to reroute grain as Azov Sea disruption deepens: Russia says it can divert grain exports from the Sea of Azov, but longer rail hauls, higher costs and insurance risks could slow shipments. Ag Bull Trading
• [New] Putin points to China and Russia's cooperation in high-tech sectors as a primary focus, alluding to the joint development of space and other weapons that could affect strategic stability. U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC and SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION
• [New] Chinese cell phone manufacturers Huawei, Xiaomi, and Oppo have cut back cell phone shipments to Russia by over 50% due to the risk that secondary sanctions could be imposed on China. U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC and SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION
• [New] Considering Putin's almost religious devotion to Russian greatness, Putin will not shrink from a dangerous escalation below the nuclear threshold if he sees no other way to prevent long-term infringements of Russia's international standing. SpringerLink
• [New] The Russian government continues exerting legal pressure on Russian migrants likely to coerce migrants into military service under threat of deportation. Critical Threats
• [New] In Russia, policymakers will weigh whether to continue reducing borrowing costs or pause after a spike in inflation triggered by surging fuel prices in the face of ongoing Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries. financialpost
• [New] Aleksey Chekunkov, the Russian minister for development of the Russian Far East and Arctic, has stated that Russia will not create obstacles for western states utilizing the Northern Sea Route and that Russia is ready to accept vessels flying the flags of any country. RUSSIA'S PIVOT TO ASIA
• [New] Russia is more likely to continue its hybrid warfare campaign of disruption and sabotage rather than direct military action. AL-MONITOR: The Middle East's leading independent news
• [New] Polish authorities continue warning of a possible Russian provocation against NATO's eastern flank. Critical Threats
• [New] The threat from Russia is not confined to its war in Ukraine. The Soufan Center
• [New] Persistent warnings by officials in Europe and Russia of a coming war, in the absence of any substantial diplomatic contact, only heighten the risk of accidental war. Council on Foreign Relations
• [New] Plus - Turkey is reportedly considering giving up its Russian-made S-400 air defence system in hopes of convincing Washington to allow Ankara back into the F-35 fighter jet program. iHeart
• [New] Russia's continued aggression against Ukraine, instability in the Middle East, growing Chinese ambitions, and emerging threat domains including cyber, disinformation, and vulnerable supply chains have fundamentally altered the geopolitical landscape. George W. Bush Presidential Center
• [New] NATO must prepare not only for today's war but also for the capabilities Russia could regenerate during the next decade. European Interest
• [New] Even with lingering uncertainty over Russian supply, analysts largely expect flows to continue, albeit with increased logistical complexity and discounts, preventing any significant supply shock from that quarter. Kavout
• [New] Russia could reach full readiness for a confrontation with NATO within six years. RBC-Ukraine
• [New] New U.S. legislation targeting Russia will impose sanctions on five major buyers of Russian crude oil and natural gas, including China. X
• [New] The combination of increasingly sophisticated artificial intelligence, and the conflict in the Middle East and Russia's war in Ukraine could enable criminals to carry out hostile cyber-attacks against businesses and critical infrastructure. The Guardian
• [New] The EU's phased ban on Russian LNG, starting in April and culminating in a full ban by year-end, will likely see redirection of Russian cargoes to Asia. ""
• [New] Restrictions on Russian oil and gas exports will continue to constrain traditional supply routes, accelerating Europe's shift toward alternative energy sources. ""
• [New] The state-owned energy company Sinopec announces that it will continue to buy crude oil and gas from Russia and participate in existing joint ventures with Rosneft, a Russian state-owned energy company, and Sibur, Russia's largest petrochemical producer in which Sinopec has a 10% stake. U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC and SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION
• [New] The Chinese state-owned petrochemical companies CNOOC, China National Petroleum Corporation, and Sinopec are in joint discussions to purchase Shell's 27.5% stake in the Sakhalin-2 oil and gas facilities, after Shell announced it will exit major equity partnerships in Russia. U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC and SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION

Last updated: 25 July 2026