Our Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] Russia is warning diplomatic missions to evacuate staff promptly from Kiev, saying Moscow will carry out a mass strike on the Ukrainian capital if Ukraine tries to disrupt its Victory Day commemorations. The Independent
• [New] Russia has said it faces an increased threat of Ukrainian attacks and will hold a slimmed-down version of its annual Victory Day parade in Moscow this week without military hardware on display. The Independent
• [New] Russian officials indicated plans to begin deploying a national orbital station in 2028, alongside development of a next-generation crewed spacecraft, as both countries evaluate the future of low Earth orbit infrastructure and continuity of human spaceflight operations. JD Supra
• [New] Putin is particularly concerned that drones could be used in a possible assassination attempt by members of Russia's political elite. NV
• [New] Russian economic growth could slow far more sharply than the Kremlin expects in 2026 as Ukrainian drone attacks on oil infrastructure disrupt exports and force production cuts, the Kremlin-linked Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting has said. The Moscow Times
• [New] Russia's weaponization of gas and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz have demonstrated the dangers of structural dependence in an era of geopolitical rivalry, and the close link between energy security and national security. Tony Blair Institute
• [New] The domestic defense-industrial complex will scale up to mass production of long-range missiles and as many as 7 million drones of various types a year, making it possible to almost completely offset Russia's advantage in manpower. |
• [New] The potential for attacks on atomic power stations has led to fears that Ukraine's nuclear reactors could be damaged by Russia. The Guardian
• [New] Russian planners must weigh the resource cost of deploying layered air defence to protect dozens of comparable petrochemical sites against the operational risk of allowing continued attrition of chemical precursor and fuel additive production capacity. Drone Warfare
• [New] Russia is continuing significant investment, budgeting 1.8 trillion Russian rubles (€20.5 billion / $24 billion) for NSR development until 2035. Deutsche Welle
• [New] The Kremlin has dramatically increased the personal security around President Vladimir Putin, installing surveillance systems in the homes of close staffers as part of new measures prompted by a wave of assassinations of top Russian military figures and fears of a coup. CNN
• [New] Western forecasting frameworks systematically overstate the disruptive potential of novel precision-strike systems, while Russia's UMPK glide bomb kits appear to have delivered more consistent operational utility than higher-profile hypersonic programs. Drone Warfare
• [New] Russia is constructing a legal pretext that could be used to justify retaliatory strikes against Finland or the Baltic states, correlating with a broader pattern of escalatory signaling toward NATO's eastern flank. Drone Warfare
• [New] Russia, with weaker AI capacities, relies on more accessible tools to scale existing tactics focused on volume, disruption, and narrative laundering. EU DisinfoLab
• [New] The Russian deployment of EW in Ukraine has been characterized as the densest electromagnetic environment in modern military history, exposing the vulnerabilities of systems reliant on persistent connectivity. Ronin's Grips Analytics
• [New] Russia would not choose a single lane; it would sequence responses-hybrid first, conventional next, nuclear as a backstop-based on risk, visibility, and reversibility. Robert Lansing Institute
• [New] Russia's announcement of approximately $535 million in silver purchases over three years represents a historic shift in official reserve composition that could trigger additional central bank accumulation, adding monetary demand to already tight physical markets. INFINOX -

Last updated: 09 May 2026