Our Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] The Bank of Russia now forecasts GDP growth of 0% to 1% in 2026, reducing its previous range of 0.5% to 1.5%. Eurasia Business News
• [New] Russia's economy will grow by 1.1% in 2026 and another 1.1% in 2027. Eurasia Business News
• [New] The Bank of Russia has become more cautious, cutting its 2026 growth forecast to a range of 0% to 1%, while maintaining expectations of stronger growth in 2027. Eurasia Business News
• [New] The Arctic remains a difficult commercial proposition, constrained by Russian control, environmental risks, limited infrastructure and high insurance costs. investing.com
• [New] Russia Agrees to ISS Operations, Seat-Swaps, Through 2030 An important step toward maintaining reliable station operations through its planned end-of-life. The Planetary Society
• [New] The risk of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons remains extremely low because their military effectiveness on today's dispersed battlefield is limited, while the political cost of breaking the nuclear taboo would be high. Farm Progress
• [New] A de-escalation in the Middle East or in the war between Russia and Ukraine could lend markets additional support. DJE Kapital AG
• [New] The EU will continue to step up the pressure on Russia to come to the negotiation table and actually negotiate. EEAS
• [New] Russian investment in North Korea's energy sector could significantly benefit North Korea's economy. American Enterprise Institute - AEI
• [New] As Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently stated, bilateral Russia-ASEAN trade, which reached approximately US$ 22 billion in 2025 despite sanctions and global economic disruptions, could double to US$ 44 billion by 2036. RUSSIA'S PIVOT TO ASIA
• [New] Russia's nuclear forces are more than 10 times the size of combined U.K. / French forces, and we are talking about a scenario in which Paris and London would be asked to risk Toulouse to save Tallinn. Brookings
• [New] The United Kingdom announced it will provide Ukraine with access to the technology behind the Storm Shadow missile, which will advance Kiev's domestic production capacity and potentially expose European defence industries to Russian retaliation. Hudson Institute
• [New] As Ukraine confronts a critical shortage of air-defense interceptors, it will be important to track the size and composition of Russia's missile salvos. Hudson Institute
• [New] Amid mounting Russian losses and Russian President Vladimir Putin's determination to sustain high-tempo combat operations, a large North Korean contingent could impose additional attrition on an already strained Ukrainian military across an overstretched battlefield. Hudson Institute
• [New] Larger Russian missile salvos could overwhelm Ukraine's air defences, which are already strained by depleted stocks of interceptors. Hudson Institute
• [New] Andrei Fedorov, a former Russian foreign minister, said he could not 100% exclude the possibility of semi-military action against Britain in retaliation, raising the prospect of an attack on British drone factories from unknown sources. The Guardian
• [New] Russia's wheat shipments are expected to decline by more than 50% year-on-year in August, tightening global supplies. investing.com
• [New] Moscow could strike British military installations and equipment inside and outside Ukraine in response to Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory using British weapons. Economic Times
• [New] Russia warns of striking British military targets in response to Ukraine's missile use. Economic Times
• [New] Although still modest, Arctic crude flows could provide a growing offset to Russia's Black Sea export losses, potentially affecting both the discount applied to Russian crude and the effectiveness of Western sanctions over the medium term. investing.com
• [New] Russia's largest lender, cash in circulation could rise by 3.8 trillion rubles ($45.8 billion) over the course of 2026, making it the largest annual increase on record. The Moscow Times
• [New] Many of Kiev's partners remain in denial over Russia's eliminationist intentions and still cling to delusional hopes of a peace deal based on mutual concessions. Atlantic Council

Last updated: 12 September 2026