Our Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] The United Kingdom announced it will provide Ukraine with access to the technology behind the Storm Shadow missile, which will advance Kiev's domestic production capacity and potentially expose European defence industries to Russian retaliation. Hudson Institute
• [New] As Ukraine confronts a critical shortage of air-defense interceptors, it will be important to track the size and composition of Russia's missile salvos. Hudson Institute
• [New] Amid mounting Russian losses and Russian President Vladimir Putin's determination to sustain high-tempo combat operations, a large North Korean contingent could impose additional attrition on an already strained Ukrainian military across an overstretched battlefield. Hudson Institute
• [New] Larger Russian missile salvos could overwhelm Ukraine's air defences, which are already strained by depleted stocks of interceptors. Hudson Institute
• [New] Andrei Fedorov, a former Russian foreign minister, said he could not 100% exclude the possibility of semi-military action against Britain in retaliation, raising the prospect of an attack on British drone factories from unknown sources. The Guardian
• [New] Russia's wheat shipments are expected to decline by more than 50% year-on-year in August, tightening global supplies. investing.com
• [New] Moscow could strike British military installations and equipment inside and outside Ukraine in response to Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory using British weapons. Economic Times
• [New] Russia warns of striking British military targets in response to Ukraine's missile use. Economic Times
• [New] Although still modest, Arctic crude flows could provide a growing offset to Russia's Black Sea export losses, potentially affecting both the discount applied to Russian crude and the effectiveness of Western sanctions over the medium term. investing.com
• [New] Russia's largest lender, cash in circulation could rise by 3.8 trillion rubles ($45.8 billion) over the course of 2026, making it the largest annual increase on record. The Moscow Times
• [New] Many of Kiev's partners remain in denial over Russia's eliminationist intentions and still cling to delusional hopes of a peace deal based on mutual concessions. Atlantic Council
• [New] NASA plans to establish a lunar colony by 2036, while China hopes to begin construction of the International Lunar Research Station, a moon base built in collaboration with Russia, in 2031. Scientific American
• [New] Threat actors were predominantly Chinese-linked, alongside isolated activity from Russian financially motivated groups and North Korean and Iranian actors. CYFIRMA
• [New] Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday issued a decree that granted his government powers to temporarily manage critical infrastructure facilities if their owners cannot protect them against security threats. Just Security
• [New] Security operations center (SOC) teams and threat intelligence analysts get to see how China -, Russia -, DPRK -, and Iran-aligned actors operate day to day, from AI-assisted exploit development to C & C hidden inside trusted cloud services and blockchains. TrendAI
• [New] ISS will not last forever & incentivizing the private sector to begin follow-on capabilities are needed now. / Russia DebateUS
• [New] Russia has successfully tested a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach the US, its defence ministry has said. The Independent
• [New] A North Korean missile unit in Russia's Voronezh Oblast could field six launchers and 120 ballistic missiles, supplementing the KN-23 and KN-24 missiles Pyongyang has already delivered. Hudson Institute
• [New] Russian business outlet RBK stated, citing sources in the Russian shipping and insurance industries, that Russian insurance companies have effectively stopped insuring cargo ships travelling in the Black and Azov seas for protective coverage concerning military and terrorist risks. Critical Threats
• [New] Russia will likely still conduct strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure in the upcoming winter, which will likely be more destructive after Russia hinders Ukrainian efforts to fortify its facilities in August. Critical Threats
• [New] Ukraine has been working to repair and fortify previously damaged energy infrastructure ahead of expected Russian energy strikes in Winter 2026-2027. Critical Threats
• [New] Russian strikes against Kiev City's energy infrastructure in the coming weeks will disrupt Ukrainian efforts to repair and strengthen the energy facilities that Russia damaged in Winter of 2025-2026. Critical Threats

Last updated: 05 September 2026