Our Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] Russian President Vladimir Putin could position his country to attack European Union and NATO member states militarily within the next five years. Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)
• [New] Adversary Adaptation: Russia will likely accelerate deployment of additional radar and intercept assets along western Siberian corridors following the Tyumen strike. Drone Warfare
• [New] The Russian military is and will remain a patchwork force that is uneven in quality and capability. Foreign Affairs Magazine
• [New] North Korea will likely exploit the weakening of international sanctions enforcement and deepening ties with Russia and the PRC to expand coal exports and gain foreign currency. American Enterprise Institute - AEI
• [New] In the coming days, the European Union is expected to include several Georgian cryptocurrency platforms in its 21st package of sanctions against Russia. Jamnews in English
• [New] Russia, once seen as a formidable military power, was expected to overwhelm Ukraine, a much smaller and weaker country backed by a divided, fearful and hesitant west. The Guardian
• [New] If the deciding factor in Ukraine has become industrial endurance and China is the partner supplying that endurance to others, then the U.S. will be fighting the very advantage it watched Russia borrow. The Washington Times
• [New] NATO members on the eastern flank are treating the provocation risk as immediate rather than theoretical, with Article 5 escalation potential attached to any ambiguous incident Russia might engineer. Drone Warfare
• [New] The bitter irony of the Ukraine war is that despite Russia's battlefield challenges and economic vulnerabilities, the United States and Europe have failed to fully wield economic or military pressure. Center for Strategic and International Studies
• [New] Russia plans to conscript men under the age of 30 into military service. Militarnyi
• [New] The US-China rivalry, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Covid pandemic, increased volatility in financial markets and continuing threat of climate change have diminished the trust in the rule based global trading system. The Financial Express
• [New] Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, a commodity price surge and the Covid-19 pandemic have all posed a risk to food supply and security around the world. Agriculture and rural development
• [New] Wheat prices jumped more than $2 per bushel into July on concerns about disruption to global supplies after Russia pulled out of an agreement that allowed Ukraine to ship grain through the Black Sea. Barchart.com
• [New] Analysts warn of a supply glut as exports surge: Iran says it has shipped over 40 million barrels since the US lifted its naval blockade, while Russian exports hit record highs, swelling barrels at sea. LiquidityFinder
• [New] Zelensky warned Russia was preparing a massive strike against Ukraine even as Kiev continued long-range attacks, including a drone strike on the Dubna Satellite Communications Centre near Moscow. Fault Lines
• [New] Ukraine's strikes expose Russian fuel vulnerability. Fault Lines
• [New] If Russia is not checked in Ukraine, strategic analysts warn that its reconstitution efforts are likely to pivot toward the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) and Finland. Ronin's Grips Analytics
• [New] The UK will provide Ukraine with 150,000 drones and 350 air defence missiles and radars by the end of 2026 as part of a loan package of 752 million pound ($992 million) backed by proceeds from frozen Russian assets. Critical Threats
• [New] Periodic Russian communication losses result in drone control disruptions, meaning that Russian forces have fewer drones operating at a given time, reducing Russia's ability to advance. Critical Threats
• [New] Most of NATO is tacitly hoping that Russia-bordering Poland and the Baltics will take on the brunt of rearmament duty. Stars and Stripes

Last updated: 11 July 2026