Our Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] With a rapidly melting Arctic, the window of opportunity for container ships north of Russia is widening year by year. commonspace.eu
• [New] Russia has conducted raids against migrants with expired permits or who are undocumented and coerced them into military service under threat of criminal charges or deportation. Critical Threats
• [New] The plant disruption has left Russia entirely dependent on the PRC for optical fiber. Critical Threats
• [New] OPEC +, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, had previously been expected to resume modest production increases of 137,000 barrels per day starting in April, following a three-month supply freeze. Dailynewsegypt - Egypt's Only Daily Independent Newspap
• [New] European farm groups warned of a fertilizer price crisis as the EU increased restrictions on Russian imports. CNS Media
• [New] Russia strengthens its territorial claims and expands its military capabilities around the Northern Sea Route, fostering hopes that one day it will become a Eurasian highway, while China is also advancing economically and militarily within the Arctic region. Sada News Agency
• [New] Private AI firms will continue to be important to the federal government as it works to compete with China, Russia, and all manner of adversaries. The Atlantic
• [New] The Russian force in the occupied territory of Ukraine now numbers more than 700,000, which could provide a density of at least 1,129 troops per mile. Foreign Affairs Magazine
• [New] Ukraine's Armed Forces will be able to better defend itself against Russia's brutal attacks after one of Ukraine's largest drone manufacturers opens a new factory in Suffolk. GOV.UK
• [New] If Ukraine is supported for a while longer, Russian losses will be too great, the Russian economy will collapse and Putin will have to sue for peace, and then possibly be ousted. Cadtm
• [New] The 2026 National Defense Strategy describes Russia as a persistent but manageable threat to NATO's eastern members and says that other NATO countries are strongly positioned to take primary responsibility for Europe's conventional defence, with critical but more limited US support. PubAffairs Bruxelles
• [New] The EU is legally barring imports of Russian natural gas after 2027. American Enterprise Institute - AEI
• [New] The United States needed to control the Arctic island to protect it against a growing threat from Russia and China. The National Interest
• [New] Amazon is warning that a Russian-speaking hacker used multiple generative AI services as part of a campaign that breached more than 600 FortiGate firewalls across 55 countries in five weeks. BleepingComputer
• [New] Russia remains hamstrung by Western sanctions, with its GDP growth projected to stagnate at 0.5% in 2026 amid restricted access to global markets. Interactive Crypto
• [New] Recently, Germany has announced that it will spend €152bn on defence annually by 2029, the date when German intelligence chiefs believe Russia would be ready to attack a NATO member state. Friends of Europe
• [New] European officials described the activity as part of a broader pattern of Russian hybrid operations extending into space, with Germany's defence minister Boris Pistorius warning that satellite networks represent a critical vulnerability for modern societies. JD Supra
• [New] Mykolaiv Oblast Military Administration Head Vitaliy Kim stated that Russian forces are changing their tactics and launching Shahed drones during the day, increasing the risk that drone debris will fall on civilians. Critical Threats
• [New] The establishment of joint Ukrainian-European production facilities outside of Ukraine throughout Europe will ensure continued Ukrainian defence industrial production in the face of intensified Russian long-range strikes across Ukraine. Critical Threats

Last updated: 07 March 2026