Global Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

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WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] China, likely with support from Russia and others, will push for a governance model that does away with universally binding rules, prioritizing national interests. Merics
• [New] Deteriorating relations with Russia over Ukraine, and a deeper Russia-China partnership, could put European vessels at a disadvantage in securing Moscow's permission to use the shorter Northern Sea Route, undermining their competitiveness in global markets. Merics
• [New] Russian forces have recently increased strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure in an attempt to disrupt the Ukrainian power system on a large scale ahead of Winter 2025-2026, and Russian strikes have caused widespread power outages for civilians living in Ukraine. Critical Threats
• [New] The Kremlin continues to employ a dual-handed rhetorical strategy, leveraging economic proposals and veiled military threats in an effort to simultaneously pursue normalizing US-Russian relations and deterring US support for Ukraine. Critical Threats
• [New] If the US withdraws, the balance of power in the European region will tilt towards Russia, especially since Russia still has nuclear superiority and strategic depth. Modern Diplomacy
• [New] In the relentless quest to make journeys to Mars shorter and safer, Russian scientists have recently turned heads with a bold claim: A plasma-based propulsion system could cut the Earth-Mars transit to just 30 to 60 days. Currently, by AT&T
• [New] A breakthrough in talks between Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin could ease restrictions on Russia's energy exports and halt Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries, further adding to global supply. Stock Market Update
• [New] As multipolarity increases and emerging powers such as China, Russia, and regional players gain influence, the importance of smart power will only grow. The Yale Review of International Studies
• [New] NATO could be forced into direct confrontation with Russia in the Baltic theater. New Geopolitics Research Network
• [New] Russia's desperate need for additional manpower has led to a new change in law that will instantaneously ship reservists to active war zones. Armstrong Economics
• [New] Handing Zelensky Tomahawks will start World War III, and Russia would be entirely justified in outright nuking Kiev or handing similar weapons to both Iran and Venezuela. Armstrong Economics
• [New] Crude oil prices are expected to decline this week due to the hypothetical possibility of a peace agreement between the US and Russia, which could lead to a rebound in Russian oil exports and contribute to a predicted supply glut. investing.com
• [New] Russia's oil and gas revenue in October is expected to drop by about 21% to 950 billion roubles ($11.7 billion) from last year, due to lower prices and a stronger rouble. Modern Diplomacy
• [New] Oil-Exporting Nations: Countries heavily reliant on oil exports, such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, and many African nations, will face significant fiscal challenges, revenue shortfalls, and currency pressures. The Chronicle-Journal
• [New] Russia's declared defence budget will surpass 7% of GDP in 2025, with 40% of its total budget dedicated to security and defence. Courthouse News Service
• [New] Russia, China and Iran have denied that they use cyber operations for espionage, disruption and disinformation. Military.com
• [New] The Biden administration similarly did not establish any limitations for how Ukraine could use weapons it provided to Ukraine that were technically capable of striking targets inside Russia, most notably Army Tactical Missile Systems or ATACMs. CNN
• [New] NATO members have pledged to up their defence spending due to the threat posed by Russia. Newsweek
• [New] Russia will not shy away from direct military confrontation with NATO if necessary. Newsweek
• [New] The strategic calculus that once seemed to favor Moscow based on leveraging superior resources and population against a smaller neighbour has been fundamentally upended by Ukrainian resilience, Western support, and Russia's own systemic vulnerabilities. Defense.info
• Analysts warn that Russia's evolving tactics signal a strategic shift to disrupt NATO unity without direct confrontation. Caliber.az
• Russian forces reportedly continue efforts to overwhelm Ukrainian air defences while increasingly targeting smaller, regional energy facilities ahead of Winter 2025-2026. Critical Threats

Last updated: 25 October 2025