Our Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] The Falcon 9 is expected to conduct at least one additional Starlink batch deployment, continuing SpaceX's relentless cadence of constellation replenishment and expansion toward its licensed shell densities. / Russia KeepTrack
• [New] At current rates, Russian forces could theoretically occupy the entire Donetsk region by the end of 2029.
• [New] Attackers increasingly breached cloud environments by rapidly exploiting newly disclosed vulnerabilities - often remote code execution flaws in third-party software-rather than relying mainly on weak credentials, with some attacks deploying cryptominers within 48 hours of disclosure. / Russia Cybersecurity Blog
• [New] The EU has shelved its planned permanent Russian oil ban in direct response to Middle East supply disruptions, effectively giving Moscow renewed energy leverage over Europe. Tatsu's Newsletter
• [New] Through Arctic Sentry, NATO is trying to be more proactive in countering the Russian and Chinese threats. Business Insider
• [New] Fazen Capital considers the procurement of polar icebreakers a structural, not cyclical, change in Arctic economics: increased U.S. capacity will reduce certain operational frictions but will not instantly neutralize the operational advantages Russia holds today. Fazen Markets
• [New] Geopolitical escalation: The strategic competition element-Russia asserting Arctic control, China seeking polar access-raises risk layers for commercial actors. Fazen Markets
• [New] Adding to uncertainty, Russian producers have warned of potential export disruptions from Baltic Sea routes following continued attacks on energy infrastructure, further tightening the global supply outlook. Ag Bull Trading
• [New] Russia could stop gas supplies to Europe with immediate effect and seek longer-term commitments from other buyers. MarineLink
• [New] Russia's threat to halt liquefied natural gas deliveries to Europe and divert cargoes to Asia would prove difficult to achieve because of its long-term contracts and need for more Arctic-class tankers. MarineLink
• [New] China, already Russia's main customer, could become a buyer of any additional Russian LNG, but would be likely to seek big price discounts. MarineLink
• [New] Russia's ongoing attempts to bolster its military through increased recruitment and investment in weaponry will leave it strong enough to launch an attack on a Nato territory by 2029. BBC News
• [New] Risk leaders should be wary of building a strategy on the stream of apparent Russian wins. Default
• [New] Ukraine has been transformed into a country that will be permanently hostile to Russia, aggrieved, and intent on joining the European Union and NATO. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
• [New] China is the most active and persistent cyber threat to the U.S. government, private-sector, and critical infrastructure networks, while Russia poses a persistent, advanced cyber attack and foreign intelligence threat. Industrial Cyber
• [New] Hacker groups linked to China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, alongside ransomware groups, continue to threaten critical infrastructure at scale. Industrial Cyber
• [New] The diplomatic messaging embedded in Zelenskyy's statements, particularly the alignment with Trump's peace rhetoric, suggests Ukraine is managing Western political support as a parallel vulnerability, one Russia may seek to exploit through ceasefire signaling that fractures coalition cohesion. Drone Warfare
• [New] A bipartisan duo on Capitol Hill is condemning the Trump administration's decision to temporarily ease U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, warning it could provide Moscow with a financial boost that bolsters its war in Ukraine and aids Iran. Spectrum News NY1
• [New] The Kremlin's efforts to close the Russian open internet are degrading the effectiveness of Russian air raid warning systems in border regions. Critical Threats
• [New] Any potential mobilization efforts the Kremlin could undertake in the near future would not provide combat-ready forces in time for the summer offensive. / Russia Critical Threats
• [New] Russian electronic warfare systems are systematically disrupting satellite navigation in the Baltic Sea, creating risks for shipping and aviation. RBC-Ukraine
• [New] Drones are estimated to account for about 70% of Russian casualties, enabling strikes to be carried out remotely and reducing the risk to pilots and aircrews. Reuters
• [New] ISW continues to assess that Russia has de facto annexed Belarus and that any US support for the Belarusian economy will likely directly benefit the Russian economy and war effort. Critical Threats

Last updated: 04 April 2026