Our Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] Russia plans to use the so-called Volunteer Corps on the left flank of the 3rd Combined Arms Army to launch an offensive operation. Two Marines
• [New] In April, Russia will likely intensify its offensive operations with more armored vehicles in its assaults conducted by the 70th Motorized Rifle Division, 6th Motorized Rifle Division, and 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade. Two Marines
• [New] At Russian production rates of 300-400 Geran-2 units / month, a sustained campaign targeting a single infrastructure cluster (e.g., Ukrainian western grid interconnects) could deliver 51-68 penetrating strikes per month even against 83% intercept performance. robotics.press
• [New] Russia considered itself entitled to, and will certainly take, measures to protect its interests in response to repeated incidents of piracy in international waters. Grosswald | European Defence Intelligence
• [New] Google Threat Intelligence Group has reported that cybercriminals - in particular, state-sponsored threat actors from North Korea, Iran, China, and Russia - are misusing Gemini, Google's large language model, to support all stages of their attack lifecycle. Alston & Bird
• [New] Assess whether alternative fertiliser sources from North America, Russia, or North Africa could provide supply continuity despite higher transport costs or geopolitical complexity. Unbreakable Ventures
• [New] Russia plans to significantly increase fish catch volumes in Africa in the coming years, based on results from the Great African Expedition conducted by the Russian fishing fleet in territorial waters of several African states. SeafoodNews
• [New] The United States will remain the most powerful nation, but will face increasing competition from China, Russia's future depends on the outcome of the war in Ukraine, India will play a major role. Existential Crunch
• [New] Russia's new tactic of coupling a large nighttime strike with an equally large daytime strike will likely cause increased civilian harm. Critical Threats
• [New] The Kremlin continues to face harsher backlash from Russia's domestic populace about its intensified censorship efforts in recent weeks than Moscow likely expected or was prepared for. Critical Threats
• [New] An attacker like Russia could combine bombers launching dozens of land-attack cruise missiles with hundreds of UAS launched from autonomous vessels or cargo aircraft. Hudson Institute
• [New] By degrading or damaging FDS arrays, Russian leaders would hope to prevent the US Navy from detecting RFN SSNs in time to intercept them at the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom gap. Hudson Institute
• [New] Russian oil exports could get a $40 billion boost if the price of crude remains elevated to the end of 2026. Foreign Office by Michael Weiss
• [New] With Putin deeply reluctant to risk another mobilization drive inside Russia, Moscow is turning increasingly to Africa and other regions for mercenary troops. Atlantic Council
• [New] Joint Projects: Indian companies have stakes in major Russian energy projects and are exploring opportunities for involvement in Arctic LNG ventures. PMF IAS
• [New] The European Union will transfer €1.4 billion in proceeds from frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine. Critical Threats
• [New] The Falcon 9 is expected to conduct at least one additional Starlink batch deployment, continuing SpaceX's relentless cadence of constellation replenishment and expansion toward its licensed shell densities. / Russia KeepTrack
• [New] At current rates, Russian forces could theoretically occupy the entire Donetsk region by the end of 2029.

Last updated: 11 April 2026