Our Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] Senior Russian bankers continue to express worries over economic issues that will continue to mature throughout the 2026 fiscal year, despite increased Russian oil revenues. Critical Threats
• [New] Ukrainian forces continue their long-range strike campaign against Russian military assets and oil infrastructure, exploiting vulnerabilities in Russian air defences. Critical Threats
• [New] In India's Road Map for Achieving the Goal of 100 GW of Nuclear Capacity by 2047, only Russian SMRs (marine or land-based) are mentioned as potentially available for import. ORF Middle East
• [New] The growing convergence between China, Russia, and Iran makes it difficult to imagine true Chinese neutrality with respect to European interests. Bocconi University
• [New] Spoofing occupies a dangerous gray zone where Russia can impose pressure while betting the West will hesitate to respond decisively. Robert Lansing Institute
• [New] Russia's military has gained extensive battlefield experience in drone disruption; satellite-navigation interference; electronic suppression; electromagnetic spectrum warfare. Robert Lansing Institute
• [New] Russian military thought increasingly emphasizes: non-kinetic disruption; electronic warfare; cyber operations; information warfare; infrastructure intimidation; deniable coercion below the threshold of open war. Robert Lansing Institute
• [New] Russia cannot economically compete with NATO in conventional aerospace capabilities, but it can exploit vulnerabilities in Western dependence on satellite navigation and digital synchronization systems. Robert Lansing Institute
• [New] Russia's expansion of GPS spoofing capabilities around Kaliningrad represents a major escalation in the militarization of the electromagnetic environment in Europe and poses growing risks to civil aviation safety. Robert Lansing Institute
• [New] Russia is capable of deliberately distorting GPS signals across parts of Europe, creating risks for security and navigation. Robert Lansing Institute
• [New] Russia's and the PRC's growing support for North Korea will likely embolden Pyongyang by making it more confident in its ability to deter or weather retaliation by other countries. American Enterprise Institute - AEI
• [New] Russia's war against Ukraine and its economic, demographic, and political consequences could either prolong Putin's rule (through militarized consolidation) or shorten it (through elite fragmentation and resource depletion). Atlantic Council
• [New] While the likelihood of a constitutional redesign in Russia that would enable major structural transformations (including legal pathways to secession) remains low, a change of leadership in Moscow is realistic, and it could serve as a trigger for political change in Grozny. Atlantic Council
• [New] Poland and the Baltic states will accept almost any American condition because they perceive the Russian threat as immediate and existential. Tomorrows Affairs
• [New] The Asian Free World countries fear that a Russian success may embolden China in its expansionist designs, resulting in a war in Asia. The Heritage Foundation
• [New] Conflicts and supply disruptions - from tensions in the Middle East to the aftershocks of Russia's invasion of Ukraine - have ushered in an era of recurrent energy shocks, exposing fragile global supply chains and intensifying the importance of energy security. Financier Worldwide
• [New] In time of war, countries are expected to follow well-recognized rules, even if not universally respected and often obnoxiously breached (e.g., the Russian war against Ukraine), there are well-established legal limits to the use of force under the guise of national security. Policy Magazine
• [New] As announced in the 2018 NPR, new low-yield, sea-launched cruise missiles will be developed and submarine-based ballistic missiles equipped with low-yield nuclear warheads. / Russia Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)
• [New] To make clear to Russia that winning a war by escalating will not work, the US needs discriminate nuclear options that can be credibly threatened and executed. Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)
• [New] The lack of credible options could mean that NATO would be forced to end the war rather than risk a massive nuclear exchange should Russia resort to using a few tactical nuclear weapons. Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)
• [New] Ukraine is containing the Russian drone threat at current levels of damage while Russia is currently unable to stop Ukraine from increasing its level of damage. Sarcastosaurus
• [New] If Ukraine's cruise missiles become effective with higher numbers being deployed and with more accurate navigation, Russian interceptor drones will not be effective against them. Sarcastosaurus

Last updated: 30 May 2026