Our Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] Russia could reach full readiness for a confrontation with NATO within six years. RBC-Ukraine
• [New] New U.S. legislation targeting Russia will impose sanctions on five major buyers of Russian crude oil and natural gas, including China. X
• [New] The combination of increasingly sophisticated artificial intelligence, and the conflict in the Middle East and Russia's war in Ukraine could enable criminals to carry out hostile cyber-attacks against businesses and critical infrastructure. The Guardian
• [New] The EU's phased ban on Russian LNG, starting in April and culminating in a full ban by year-end, will likely see redirection of Russian cargoes to Asia. ""
• [New] Restrictions on Russian oil and gas exports will continue to constrain traditional supply routes, accelerating Europe's shift toward alternative energy sources. ""
• [New] The state-owned energy company Sinopec announces that it will continue to buy crude oil and gas from Russia and participate in existing joint ventures with Rosneft, a Russian state-owned energy company, and Sibur, Russia's largest petrochemical producer in which Sinopec has a 10% stake. U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC and SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION
• [New] The Chinese state-owned petrochemical companies CNOOC, China National Petroleum Corporation, and Sinopec are in joint discussions to purchase Shell's 27.5% stake in the Sakhalin-2 oil and gas facilities, after Shell announced it will exit major equity partnerships in Russia. U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC and SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION
• [New] Some independent oil refiners in China are stealthily buying Russian oil at a discount, refraining from publicly reporting the deals out of fear of being hit by U.S. sanctions. U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC and SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION
• [New] Russian businesses and financial institutions may be exploring opportunities to use RMB in their international transactions after international sanctions curtailed Russian banks' access to U.S. dollars and euros. U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC and SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION
• [New] China supports reaching a comprehensive and lasting peace deal and will continue to maintain strategic communication with Russia on the matter. U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC and SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION
• [New] The Graham sanctions bill could force governments and exporters in countries that continue purchasing Russian oil and gas to reassess their exposure if Washington imposes tariffs of up to 500%, potentially disrupting Asian commodity flows and creating new enforcement questions for U.S. allies. Fault Lines
• [New] China's renewed engagement with North Korea gives Pyongyang another source of diplomatic support and possible economic engagement alongside its military relationship with Russia, complicating any South Korean assumption that Beijing will distance itself from the North. Fault Lines
• [New] The International Energy Agency lowered Russia's 2026-27 oil production forecasts, citing repeated Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries, storage facilities and transport infrastructure that are increasingly constraining effective supply rather than only causing temporary outages. More News From NowHere
• [New] Russia's suspension of diesel exports amid refinery disruptions is tightening global middle-distillate supplies and increasing pressure on diesel markets. More News From NowHere
• [New] Russia is learning from Ukrainian tactics, developing solutions like fiber-optic drones resistant to electronic warfare, and aligning its unmanned-aircraft development with a perceived NATO threat. CES Intelligence
• [New] Trade & Supply Chains - Russia plans to establish a commercial logistics hub at Syria's Port of Tartous while retaining its military presence at the adjacent naval facility. More News From NowHere
• [New] Strategically, the Russian objective remains the maintenance of persistent access to Western government, foreign-ministry, energy, and logistics networks that can be leveraged for collection in peacetime and for disruption should the confrontation over Ukraine escalate further. Cyber News Network
• [New] MODERATE CONFIDENCE: Russia will most likely use the coming 30 to 60 days for a post-Ankara collection cycle against government, foreign-ministry, and logistics targets rather than a single headline disruptive operation. Cyber News Network
• [New] The revised Russia sanctions bill could redirect additional energy trade through Asia and impose new compliance decisions on refiners, shippers and financial institutions, although its final scope remains unclear. Fault Lines
• [New] Russia's shadow fleet is how it has been circumventing sanctions to export grain and import agricultural inputs - damaging 40 vessels simultaneously is not a minor disruption. Dewing Grain - Norfolk & Suffolk's grain marketing & st
• [New] Russian President Vladimir Putin will start war with NATO less than one year after ending the invasion of Ukraine. Daily Star
• [New] Russian President Vladimir Putin could position his country to attack European Union and NATO member states militarily within the next five years. Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)
• [New] Adversary Adaptation: Russia will likely accelerate deployment of additional radar and intercept assets along western Siberian corridors following the Tyumen strike. Drone Warfare

Last updated: 18 July 2026