Our Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] Various European intelligence agencies have shared their assessment that Russia may look to attack a NATO state by 2030, as a way to test NATO's mutual defence commitment. Centre for European Reform
• [New] Russia is already intensifying cyber-attacks, information operations, sabotage and other forms of hostile activity below the threshold of war that might trigger a military response. Centre for European Reform
• [New] Even if Ukraine, with Western help, decisively defeats Russia, Washington and its NATO allies should not dismiss the future Russian military threat or eschew necessary investments in rearmament. Foreign Affairs Magazine
• [New] In 2026, Russian defence spending is projected to reach $180 billion. Foreign Affairs Magazine
• [New] The future Russian military will have more infantry-reversing prior cuts - and more drone formations to provide fire support or conduct precision strikes. Foreign Affairs Magazine
• [New] NATO must consider other threats that Russia poses, including a much more limited ground campaign backed by intense missile and drone strikes. Foreign Affairs Magazine
• [New] To conduct operations at scale, the Russian military will need to restore not only its manpower and materiel but also its ability to command and support larger formations such as armies, corps, and divisions, and to integrate different branches. Foreign Affairs Magazine
• [New] The baseline for analyzing Russian military reconstitution should be large-scale combat operations because they pose the greatest threat to NATO and the greatest challenge for U.S. forces in Europe. Foreign Affairs Magazine
• [New] Russian President Vladimir Putin could order an attack elsewhere in Europe before the end of the decade, especially if he defeats Ukraine. Longmont Times-Call
• [New] An escalation between Russia and Nato could lead to a nuclear strikes exchange with catastrophic consequences. The Independent
• [New] Russia is rebuilding its military much faster than many Europeans realise and that Estonia must be ready for a renewed military threat within the next few years, marking 2027 as a critical benchmark for readiness. Al Jazeera
• [New] NATO now describes Russia as the most significant and direct threat to allied security in the Euro-Atlantic area. Modern War Institute
• [New] NATO will gather in Turkey at a moment when Russia's war against Ukraine has restored territorial defence to the center of alliance strategy. Modern War Institute
• [New] Ukraine likely has a unique and time-constrained opportunity to exploit its current initiative while Russian forces remain vulnerable. CNN
• [New] NATO and some European governments now frame nuclear weapons as necessary reassurance against Russian threats. Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
• [New] The current trends of rearmament and expanded military installations along or near the Russia-NATO borders will increase the risk of misinterpretation. Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
• [New] NATO could find it difficult to use its traditional air superiority to suppress dispersed drone teams or handle Russia's large volume of cheap one-way attack drones. Foreign Affairs Magazine
• [New] Russia continues to rapidly produce air defence systems and will probably modify future air defence designs based on what it has learned from the war in Ukraine. Foreign Affairs Magazine
• [New] Because of Ukraine's increasingly successful strikes, Russia is now losing air defence systems in much greater numbers than it was earlier in the war, which raises questions about how it will compensate for the more expensive systems it cannot easily replace. Foreign Affairs Magazine
• [New] Russia's military will struggle to use the advantages provided by its growing drone force and improving strike capabilities to support offensive ground operations. Foreign Affairs Magazine
• [New] Russia attacked Ukraine overnight with missiles and strike drones, triggering air raid alerts across several regions amid the threat of ballistic missile strikes. Rubryka
• [New] A rise in Russian attacks on Ukrainian seaports and vessels could cut monthly grain shipments by as much as a third and have left terminal operators facing mounting losses they say they cannot cover alone. Pro Farmer
• [New] Additional risks include the potential expansion of Russian attacks into NATO Europe, and heightened China-Taiwan tension. Office of the New York City Comptroller Mark Levine

Last updated: 27 June 2026