Our Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] Russia would not choose a single lane; it would sequence responses-hybrid first, conventional next, nuclear as a backstop-based on risk, visibility, and reversibility. Robert Lansing Institute
• [New] Russia's announcement of approximately $535 million in silver purchases over three years represents a historic shift in official reserve composition that could trigger additional central bank accumulation, adding monetary demand to already tight physical markets. INFINOX -
• [New] As the Northern Sea Route gains global significance, Russia's tightening control threatens to turn it into a geopolitical chokepoint. Hudson Institute
• [New] Russia will revoke licenses for unruly ISPs: The Russian government will tighten operating requirements for internet service providers in an effort to kill small neighborhood providers. Default
• [New] Russian manpower resilience remains a strategic risk to Ukraine's 2026 war strategy. Futura Doctrina
• [New] Russia plans to produce more than 7 million FPV drones in 2026-3 million more than last year. RBC-Ukraine
• [New] Predictive Analysis: Russia will likely accelerate domestic drone production announcements, citing the mobilization-loss gap as justification, though actual fielding of a 165,000-unit drone force could take significantly longer than official timelines suggest. Drone Warfare
• [New] Predictive Analysis: Russia will likely conduct at least two additional mass drone strikes exceeding 100 UAVs against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, as the current operational tempo and available stockpile indicators support continued high-frequency saturation campaigns. Drone Warfare
• [New] The diffusion and use of lightweight C-UAV EW systems have enhanced Russia's ability to defend against the threat from Ukrainian drones at the company level. sUAS News
• [New] Ukraine's relentless drone attacks on Russian export hubs have prevented Russia from fully capitalizing on its opportunity. Fortune
• [New] Fears are mounting that Russia is paving the way for military action in the Baltic that could trigger a war. Daily Mirror
• [New] The Arctic and the Far East are no longer Russia's edge, but its new core, concentrating resources, transport routes, and strategic opportunities. Valdai Club
• [New] Russia's attempt to monopolize access and escort rights along the NSR poses operational risks. Hudson Institute
• [New] Russia represents the greatest and most immediate threat for the foreseeable future to Germany and transatlantic security: Russia is laying the groundwork for a military attack on NATO member states. Deutsche Welle
• [New] Activating the anti-circumvention tool for the first time: The EU will not ignore cases of EU sanctions being systematically circumvented by exporters in third countries that re-export sanctioned EU goods to Russia. Finance
• [New] G7 + sanctions have focused on Russian revenues rather than on restricting Russian export volumes - aimed at keeping Russian barrels flowing in global markets and easing fears of supply constraints. Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air
• [New] Google Threat Intelligence Group has reported that cybercriminals - in particular, state-sponsored threat actors from North Korea, Iran, China, and Russia - are misusing Gemini, Google's large language model, to support all stages of their attack life cycle. Alston & Bird
• [New] The U.S. and its allies, including the United Kingdom, are increasing efforts to prepare for potential Russian nuclear anti-satellite threats through joint wargaming exercises focused on space conflict scenarios. JD Supra
• [New] Russia plans to expand its unmanned systems forces to 101,000 personnel. RBC-Ukraine
• [New] In 2026, Russia plans to produce three million more FPV drones than last year. RBC-Ukraine
• [New] Following the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU raised its target for the share of renewable energy sources in gross final energy consumption from 32% by 2030 to 42.5%. Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)
• [New] The FBI is warning that end-to-end encryption applications are being targeted by phishing attacks from Russia's intelligence service. Federal News Network
• [New] Europe could afford to spend more on defending itself against Russia; however, it could not afford to overspend, to do it without planning, or to leave it for too long to prepare. The Economy

Last updated: 02 May 2026