Our Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] The UK NCSC assesses that the greatest nation-state-sponsored cyber threats to the UK and its allies continue to emanate from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, with state-aligned actors increasingly blurring into financially motivated cybercrime crews. Swif.ai
• [New] Germany will keep two of its three remaining nuclear-power plants online past their December shutdown deadline in an effort to buttress its power supply after Russia halted gas flows. The Council of Industry
• [New] Putin is using massive strike packages against Kiev in an effort to break Ukraine's will to fight as well as to disguise his weakness, particularly his inability to secure Russian territory, including Russia's capital, from Ukraine's deep strikes. Critical Threats
• [New] Container ship operations on the NSR are expected to begin in earnest around 2035. / Russia Cello Square
• [New] As long as the war in Ukraine continues, it will be difficult for foreign carriers to operate Arctic routes due to concerns about Western sanctions against Russia. Cello Square
• [New] ROSATOM Corp. (ROSATOM), the operator of the NSR, plans to conduct a pilot operation of icebreaking container vessels as part of the NTC project in 2025-26, albeit with some delays. / Russia Cello Square
• [New] Continued Western sanctions against Russia are expected to delay the schedule of the NTC project. Cello Square
• [New] Rusatom Cargo plans to build a transshipment port between Murmansk and Vladivostok on both sides of the Russian Arctic Ocean, with the aim of establishing regular container ship service between Asia and Europe via the NSR. Cello Square
• [New] The US will boost its capacity to make nuclear fuel by as much as 50% after a multibillion investment by a company part owned by the UK and Dutch governments, as Washington aims to reduce its reliance on Russian uranium enrichment. Electricity Info
• [New] From the onset of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Russian leaders have repeatedly issued thinly-veiled threats of nuclear weapons use, challenging long-standing international norms against nuclear coercion. EISS - Event Management System (Indico)
• [New] Europe faces a triple threat: Russia's imperialist ambitions in Europe, China's economic coercion, and US withdrawal from its responsibilities on European security. Centre for European Reform
• [New] Russia's wheat crop outlook has improved following favorable spring weather, while recent estimates from ABARES suggest Australia will produce a smaller crop than last year but still remain a significant exporter. Ag Bull Trading
• [New] Every commercial link with Russia may need to be assessed not in terms of economic benefit, but in terms of what leverage it could place in the Kremlin's hands. International Centre for Defence and Security
• [New] Ukraine demonstrates strong capacity to hold on - and potentially it could reclaim control over occupied territories - yet a final settlement with Russia may prove hard to achieve in the foreseeable future. International Centre for Defence and Security
• [New] Not only the countries of NATO's eastern flank, but all European states would need to accept the axiom that Russia will remain a source of serious security threats and challenges for the foreseeable future. International Centre for Defence and Security
• [New] The U.S. Senators emphasized that providing DPICM will allow Ukraine to compensate for Russia's quantitative advantage in both personnel and artillery rounds and will allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces to concentrate their use of unitary warheads against higher-value Russian targets. Militarnyi
• [New] Russia-linked threat group GreyVibe is using AI tools including ChatGPT and Gemini to run five parallel attack chains simultaneously against Ukrainian targets, corroborated by both SecurityWeek and SC Magazine. OriginBrief
• [New] Threat - strategic, deliberate, tied to geopolitical objectives of the sponsoring state (China, Russia, North Korea, Iran are the four most active state sponsors per CISA, NSA and FBI joint advisories 2023-2026). nFlo
• [New] The UK is connected by about 60 undersea cables, which British officials say are increasingly under threat from Moscow, with a 30% rise in Russian vessels spotted in UK waters over the past few years. BBC News
• [New] Senior Russian bankers continue to express worries over economic issues that will continue to mature throughout the 2026 fiscal year, despite increased Russian oil revenues. Critical Threats
• [New] Ukrainian forces continue their long-range strike campaign against Russian military assets and oil infrastructure, exploiting vulnerabilities in Russian air defences. Critical Threats
• [New] In India's Road Map for Achieving the Goal of 100 GW of Nuclear Capacity by 2047, only Russian SMRs (marine or land-based) are mentioned as potentially available for import. ORF Middle East

Last updated: 06 June 2026