Global Scans · Turkey · Weekly Summary

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WHAT'S NEXT?: Uncertainties over Turkey's eventual political position abound. With EU decisions in doubt, recent crackdown on opposition parties causing concerns, and being embroiled in complex Middle East politics and fighting terrorism on its borders and internally, which way will she swing?

• [New] The EU and Turkey should protect opposition activists and refrain from returning them to Tajikistan, a country known for engaging in transnational repression, where they risk being tortured. Human Rights Watch
• [New] Turkey has recognized the evolving dynamics of global politics and the need to balance potential threats from unstable regimes like Iran and Iraq. Eurasia Review
• [New] Trump's return to the White House may provide an opportunity for Turkey to expand its military control over Iraq and Syria - and settle scores with the U.S.-backed Syrian Kurds that Ankara considers to be terrorists. Brookings
• [New] Sanctions against Iran largely target its oil industry by threatening potential importers (like India, Japan, or Turkey) with penalties should they purchase from Iran. World101 from the Council on Foreign Relations
• [New] Turkey has long advocated for more relaxed travel regulations for its citizens visiting the EU, with hopes that cooperation, including efforts to manage illegal immigration, could lead to further concessions from member states. IAM (immigration and migration)
• [New] The hope that most non-Western states would stop trading with Russia proved unfounded; Russia has increased its trade flows with India, Turkey, and China, while many of Russia's neighbours quietly profit by reselling sanctioned goods to Moscow. The National Interest
• [New] For Turkey, the EU's expectations will be effectively impossible to fulfil, as they would undermine the stability of its state system and require it to revise its policy towards the Mediterranean and Aegean seas as well as Russia and Syria. OSW Centre for Eastern Studies
• Germany will remain among the world's top ten steel-consuming regions together with China, India, United States, South Korea, Japan, Russia, Turkey, Mexico and Brazil. EUROMETAL
• The foreign policies of various geopolitical swing states - including India, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Brazil - will help shape future geopolitical relations. MIT OpenCourseWare
• Turkey will impose restrictions on the export of products from 54 different categories to Israel until a ceasefire is declared in Gaza. The Guardian
• Turkey's presence could potentially contribute to establishing a form of balance, limiting Ethiopia's maneuvering space and slowing down its efforts to proceed with its maritime agreement with Somaliland. Addis Standard
• Turkey will assist Somalia in bolstering its naval forces, enhancing maritime security capabilities, and advancing maritime resource development and blue economy initiatives. Addis Standard
• The US-Turkish ammunition collaboration project will see heavy Turkish investment in American shell manufacturing, and the Turkish company Rekon will, by 2025, have built three new production lines in Texas, manufacturing about 30% of all 155 mm artillery shells produced in the United States. Kyiv Post
• As Ankara cannot control how its drones are used by countries that buy them, Turkey's policy of exporting drones could damage its international reputation, as the country at worst accrues blame, or at best creates bad optics, for distributing weaponry that so easily lends itself to war crimes. Defence Industry
• Social commerce industry in Turkey is expected to grow by 35.4% on annual basis to reach US$ 3.82 billion in 2024. Yahoo Finance
• One of Turkey's mid-sized Mediterranean oil terminals - the Dortyol terminal - will no longer accept Russian imports after receiving record volumes last year, amid an increase in sanctions pressure by the United States. investing.com
• Turkey and Somalia signed a bilateral maritime agreement in February that authorized Turkey to build, train, and equip the Somali navy and deploy ships to combat illegal activity and remove any external violations or threats to Somalia's coast. Critical Threats
• International organizations like the IMF and OECD are optimistic about Turkey's economy, estimating that Turkey will be the 9th largest economy by 2030 and 5th largest by 2060. Property Turkey
• The Central Bank of Turkey voiced its commitment to upholding a stringent policy approach until inflation drops to target levels, with a year-end inflation projection of 36% and a long-term target of 9% by the year 2026. Property Turkey
• After spending years supporting opposite sides of the Libyan civil war, Turkey and Egypt could start working together to ensure Libya's stability, security, and economic progress. Carnegie Europe
• Some Chinese banks and Turkish lenders are understood to have reacted to US threats in December to cut off access to foreign banks doing business with companies that support Russia's defence industry. The Guardian

Last updated: 22 April 2024