revenue

• Global software revenue from 22 key healthcare artificial intelligence use cases will grow from $511.7 million in 2018 to $8.6 billion annually by 2025.
• Tractica forecasts that global software revenue from 22 key healthcare AI use cases will grow from $511.7 million in 2018 to $8.6 billion annually by 2025.
• According to Tractica's forecasts, voice and speech recognition revenue for clinical documentation in healthcare will grow from $512 million in 2016 to more than $2.2 billion in 2025.
  

market

• The global biophotonics market was valued at US$31.4 billion (Bn) in 2014: The market is expected to reach US$59.7 Bn by 2020, registering a CAGR of 11.3% between 2014 and 2020.
• By 2023, markets will be under pressure to find revenue and government and the energy and healthcare sector will be entering a period of significant disruption.
• The market for fiber-optic sensors in structural health monitoring will more than double over the next five years.
• The Americas is expected to witness a growth in the global home healthcare market due to the increasing adoption of long-termhome careservices and growing awareness about healthcare: The growth of the aging population will further propel the growth prospects for the market for the next four years.

industry

• The first UK welfare pilots will begin in 2020 and animal health interventions will be agreed with industry.
• New IoT applications are being developed across all industries, including banking, manufacturing, retail, healthcare, transportation, utilities, and government.
• $18 billion dollars could be saved across the health care industry by applying AI solutions to eliminate certain administrative processes.
• South Africa is expected to offer good potential for the RTLS market for health care in the years to come with increasing development and investments in the health care industry.
• The global healthcare industry could generate some $150bn (£114bn) in savings through its use of AI and cognitive computing by 2025.
• The healthcare industry vertical is expected to grow at the highest CAGR from 2018 to 2023.
• Frost & Sullivan expects artificial intelligence and cognitive computing to generate more than $150 billion in savings for the healthcare industry by 2025.
• Eighty-seven percent of healthcare organizations will have adopted Internet of Things technology by 2019 and 76 percent believe it will transform the healthcare industry.

new global consent ledger

• The new Global Consent Ledger will initially begin with healthcare data from U.S. residents and provide a digital data trail stored on the IBM Blockchain Platform.
  

organization

• The Internet Data Corporation expects one in five healthcare organizations will use blockchain for operations and patient identification by 2020.
• Eighty-seven percent of healthcare organizations will have adopted Internet of Things technology by 2019 and 76 percent believe it will transform the healthcare industry.
• Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is predicted by the World Health Organization to be the third-leading cause of illness and death internationally by 2030.
• The Aedes aegypti mosquito is one of the world's most dangerous animals, infecting millions of people around the world every year with diseases including dengue fever: The World Health Organization believes about half of the world's population is now at risk.

care

• 2018 will be the year of proof-of-concept for the blockchain in public services - specifically in areas such as e-government and health care.
• South Africa is expected to offer good potential for the RTLS market for health care in the years to come with increasing development and investments in the health care industry.
• Due to the presence of many health care facilities in the United States, North America contributed the largest market share to the global RTLS division for health care: Additionally, Europe and North America are expected to show steady growth during the years to come.
• Rise in awareness about health care is expected to propel the orthopaedic orthotics market in the coming years.
• The UK secretary of state for health and social care is expected to today announce £200 million of funding to create additional global digital exemplars.

health

• Nationalist MEPs might seek to take back control of public-health reform after the European Parliament elections next year by limiting the interpretation of the EU's mandate on health.
• Investments in health and education in sub-Saharan Africa could increase GDP in the region by more than 90 percent by 2050.
• The UK secretary of state for health and social care is expected to today announce £200 million of funding to create additional global digital exemplars.
• The Department of Health and Human Services says the number of elderly adults who abuse opioids is projected to double between 2004 and 2020.
• Defra has proposed that the definition of higher animal welfare within the new public goods framework and the leadership role for animal health and welfare will be agreed in 2020.

service

• The revenue potential for IoT-based products and services is forecasted to approach $270 billion by 2020.
• UK patients are being turned away from sexual health clinics amid record demand as councils warn services could struggle to cope unless the government reverses £600m worth of public health cuts due by 2020.
• The global healthcare sector will spend nearly $270 billion on Internet of Things devices and services by 2023.
• US community health centers will get a $65 million increase for their behavioral and mental health and addiction treatment services.
• More complete information on contract providers could help IHS officials make decisions on where to better target its limited resources to address gaps in provider staffing and ensure that health services are available and accessible to American Indian / Alaska Native people across IHS facilities.
• One of the most notable disruptions in healthcare services over the next five years will be the concept of Smart Homes.

insurer

• A Brookings Institution study released this month estimated that insurers on the health insurance market this year will enjoy an underwriting profit margin of 10.5 percent, up from 1.2 percent last year.
• Tennessee's largest health insurer will stop covering Oxycontin beginning in 2019 and recommend two other opioids with abuse-deterrent labels for coverage instead.

rate

• The UAE's healthcare market is expected to reach Dh 71.5 billion in 2020 at an average annual growth rate of 12.7 percent from 2015.
• The overall healthcare sector is expected to surge to $280 billion by 2020-a compound annual growth rate of 23% from 2016-partly due to demand for specialized and quality hospitals and other facilities.
• AI healthcare market is projected to reach $6.6 billion by 2021-a compound annual growth rate of 40 percent.
• The global home care services market is projected to grow at a healthy rate through 2020.
• Asia followed by the Europe is expected to experience high growth rate in the next few years in global heart blocks treatment devices.
• If smoking rates continue to decline, there will be between 9 and 11 in 100 people smoking by 2023.

sector

• The impacts of climate change, from air pollution to extreme weather events, to disruptions to food and water systems, will pose the greatest threats to global health in this century, and health leaders say it's time for the sector to be a more active participant in the global climate debate.
• The global healthcare sector will spend nearly $270 billion on Internet of Things devices and services by 2023.
• By 2023, markets will be under pressure to find revenue and government and the energy and healthcare sector will be entering a period of significant disruption.
• The use of chatbots will bring $11 billion in combined cost savings for the retail, banking and healthcare business sectors as a replacement for customer service representatives.

Do contact us to see how we can help you track emerging uncertainty issues and developments as they are announced or reported.

Systems map
Healthcare worldwide is likely to face increasing disruption through emerging technologies, migration to cities and through climate change and wars plus increasingly ageing populations in the West.

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Radar
Pharmaceuticals are top of the list for disruption due the rising influence of biosimilars as many patents expire in the next five years and the cost of producing new drugs and issues with affordability and over-the-counter pharma rise. Media and entertainment rise too with growth in wearables, personal sensors that entertain as much as manage health and health tourism is expected to grow as consumers look for cheaper and more exciting destinations to manage their health.

Graph-It
By 2025, Athena suggests that AI will be a key driver in improving health outcomes and managing staff and patient services. Obesity will continue to be a growing healthcare concern and healthcare will be severely disrupted by many now emerging technologies.

Sentiment analysis
Attitudes to health have been nett neutral for several years. This may well change in future decades as climate change and geopolitics forces more migrants to shelter in cities. Tensions may well boil over between the haves and the have nots if city authorities fail to cope with rising influxes of people seeking safety and security, and good health.

Pie charts
Athena calculates that the tipping point for the transformation of healthcare worldwide will be around 2042 from aggregating the views of all her sources. (The tipping piont is when 33% of citizens believe that what changes have occurred have always been the status quo of modern living).

Similarly, those same sources collectively rank the issue as one of the Very Highest sectors ripe for disruption and assess future Impact in the Billions and Trillions range with 62.6% placing it in early stage development with 19.9% feeling the changes are already gaining traction.

Cloud
The cloud shows the enormous range of associated topics that will drive or be affected by the transformation of healthcare in the coming decades. We recommend you explore associated topics of interest to you at shapingtomorrow.com and then anticipate and prepare for emerging opportunities and risks accordingly.


Heat Map
The heat map highlights which sectors and countries show the most opportunity. Three countries stand out: the USA, UK and China and also how many countries healthcare systems will need to be transformed with the coming disruptive changes above.

Geographies
The geographical map below shows the same picture as the Cross-Impact above in terms of where to expect changes in healthcare. Canada, Argentina, Germany and South Africa and Venezuela also join the list of most likely disrupted countries below.


 

Influencers
Patient care, new technologies, efforts to contain new diseases and solve old ones with better data, service and care head the topic list with the NHS and Medicare, Medicaid and changes in EU healthcare policies likely to lead the transformation. Donald Trump also stands out as a disruptive and unpredictable actor as he does on so many issues
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Sources
Athena used the sources below as the top ones to create this report and determined which embedded forecasts are included in this Trend Alert. She found 5,466 forecasts in seconds on the 27th September 2018 to allow us to publish this summary in less than an hour. She can turn these into PowerPoint slides and Audio files in minutes too as you wish, or we can prepare a full customized and professionally written brief for you to order covering all 15,262 forecasts. You can also use these forecasts in collaborative workshops to develop your strategic responses in hours rather than the weeks and months of traditional foresight projects.

Athena

Athena does show duplicates to aid your understanding of themes as well as contradictory forecasts. She may also show near-duplicates. You can speed read past the duplicates and near-duplicates if you wish, though the latter may show additional information. You can use the contradictory, and likely uncertain forecasts she finds to imagine different scenarios. The future is unpredictable, but we can examine the possibilities and choose our preferable future from the choices she presents. 

Athena is apolitical. She will report forecasts from different viewpoints however distasteful that might be to our own values. Wearing rose-colored glasses is not her purpose; reporting potential futures is. So, we recommend you check her veracity before responding to her extracted forecasts.
Just like humans, Athena can be fallible.

o recognize that you and your associates are biased too. But whereas you tire, make mistakes and only recognize what interests you, she does not. She might miss or misinterpret as you do, but with far less frequency and she'll take uncomfortable truths and alternative ideas in her stride. But, please let us know if you feel her bias can be reduced. We want to do our best for you. And, as with any research, you should check and triangulate her findings for yourself.

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