Climate

A Future Prognosis

Matt Richardson

6 December 2022
Introduction
This set of automatically curated slides provides an instant overview about possible futures to help inform present day strategy, and for you to act on opportunities and risks and mitigate threats in a timely manner. Learn more.

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Contents
User Guide
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Sources
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
Emissions of planet-heating gases caused by human activity, such as burning fossil fuels, need to be halved by 2030 and end completely by mid-century to keep alive the Paris climate accord's goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. AP News
Climate change has already rendered parts of the world unlivable and by 2030, loss and damage from warming could cost the world anywhere from $290 billion to $580 billion a year. Vox
Keeping warming to 1.5 degrees requires a reduction in global emissions of almost 50% by 2030 relative to 2010 levels. Kings College London
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • The Commodity Futures Trading Commission recently underscored that climate change could impair the productive capacity of the U.S. economy. As You Sow
  • The UN established the NAP process to help countries to reduce their vulnerability to the physical impacts of climate change by building adaptive capacity and resilience, and to integrate adaptation into new and existing policies and programmes, especially development strategies. ESG Investor
  • Investors need to starting accounting for physical risks of climate change through assessments to ensure resilience of their investment portfolios. ESG Investor
Weaknesses
  • At long last, the US in 2022 legislated important steps to fight climate change in its Inflation Reduction Act, which will heavily subsidize electric vehicles and other green technologies. Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
  • After a landmark agreement at the 2022 UN Climate Change Conference, funding for Loss and Damage could provide a new source of capital that countries could invest back into adaptation or even broader goals like universal health coverage. Council on Foreign Relations
  • The world will pass the Paris Agreement limit at least temporarily, even if warming is reduced back to below the 1.5 °C limit by 2100. Council on Foreign Relations
Opportunities
  • Under the IRA, American consumers will get incentives to purchase new and second-hand electric cars, to warm their homes with heat pumps and even to cook their food using electric induction. BBC News
  • As the world fights the adverse effects of climate change and loss of biodiversity, Africa's success is important as neither will be successfully resolved unless both are tackled. allAfrica.com
  • The Barefoot Vocational Training College aims to champion the fight against climate change that Fiji is facing as a small island country and will bring communities much closer to energy independence and sustainability. Fiji Broadcasting Corporation
Threats
  • Past 1.5 degrees of global warming, Earth's weather systems are expected to become dangerously chaotic, with famines, floods and fires expected to increase dramatically. Resilience.org
  • Following current projections, the numbers of climate migrants are expected to soar in the coming decades as the effects of climate change intensify. Bruegel | The Brussels-based economic think tank
  • Egypt's financial needs for fighting climate change until 2023 are estimated at $20 billion. Ahram Online
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
computer, atmosphere, augmented reality, autonomous, disaster, science
Emerging
EV, artificial intelligence, carbon, pandemic, country, battery
Maturing
emission, country, carbon, global warming, climate-change, community
Declining
emission, GDP, coal, country, biodiversity, carbon
Sentiment
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
Emissions of planet-heating gases caused by human activity, such as burning fossil fuels, need to be halved by 2030 and end completely by mid-century to keep alive the Paris climate accord's goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. AP News
By 2050, glaciers in one-third of World Heritage sites will disappear but glaciers in the other two-thirds of sites could be saved by limiting global warming to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. UNESCO World Heritage Centre
PEST
Political
  • Several environmental, conservation and farming groups plan to use the 2023 Farm Bill as an opportunity to codify significant changes to agriculture policy to help combat the effects of global climate change. STLPR
  • The UN is warning that the effects of climate change make economic conditions in developing countries worse. Magnetic Media
  • If the world collectively fails its developing countries that will suffer the brunt of climate changes ill effects. Magnetic Media
Economic
  • The UN's annual climate summit, COP 27, held in 2022 in Egypt, has as its ultimate objective to avoid dangerous climate change - the greatest threat to health in the 21st century. The BMJ
  • Trump downplayed the risk of climate change, incorrectly stating that sea level rise will be just one-eighth of an inch over the next 200 to 300 years. FactCheck.org
  • With the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warning that CO2 emissions must be cut 45% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels, the mega carbon project in Kenya is a welcome one. The Guardian
Social
  • The perennially dry and vulnerable northern regions of Ghana have come under the brutish impacts of climate change as many communities are facing water security threats with significant public health ramifications. GhanaWeb
  • The most recent assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emphasises the interdependence of climate and biodiversity, and warns that extreme weather patterns caused by climate change have already caused hundreds of local losses of species. New Statesman
  • As temperature extremes become more intense and frequent in our warming world, many insects will have to rely on shifting to new ranges or changing their behavior to cope, rather than being able to physiologically tolerate wider temperatures. phys.org
Technological
  • By enabling simulations with unprecedented fidelity, running on the world's largest computers, DestinE's climate adaptation twin will help the MPI-M harness the power of technology to enhance scientific understanding and anticipate how the weather will change with warming. MPI fuer Meteorologie Hamburg
  • A U.N. report released last month found that there is no credible pathway to keep warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), the threshold of danger scientists say humanity should not breach. The Washington Post
  • The soot released by 1,000 space tourism flights could warm Antarctica by nearly 1 °C! Vito Technology, Inc.
Financial Impact
Studies assess the value of global financial assets at risk from climate change to be in the range of $2.5 trillion to $4.2 trillion, including transition risks and other impacts from climate change. Federal Register
Depending on how deeply the world slashes carbon pollution, loss and damage from climate change could cost developing countries $290 to 580 billion a year by 2030, reaching $1 trillion to 1.8 trillion in 2050. philstar.com
JPMorgan has pledged to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 and said it financed and facilitated $285 billion last year toward its $2.5 trillion, 10-year commitment to fight climate change. American Banker
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
The world is on track to exhaust its carbon budget, the amount of greenhouse gases it can emit without triggering dangerous levels of warming, by 2030. McKinsey & Company
The world could blow through its chances of staying within 1.5 degree Celsius of global warming in less than 10 years. The New Indian Express
New research has come out stating that by 2050, the world's wilderness areas will suffer a severe loss of biodiversity - due to climate change and land clearing. The Wire
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
The world is already seeing climate change refugees and estimates suggest 1.2 billion could be displaced globally by 2050 due to climate stressors. Women's World Banking
The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report - which warns that global emissions must decline by 2025 to avoid dangerous climate change - showed why must fossil fuel drilling must stop. The Independent
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
Africa requires $2.8 tn by 2030 to play its part in limiting global heating to 1.5 C and to address the impacts of climate change. The Guardian
Depending on the extent of global efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change, loss and damage could cost developing countries anywhere between $US290 billion ($460 billion) and $US580 billion in 2030, and between $US1 trillion and $US1.8 trillion in 2050. Brisbane Times
A transition to alternative proteins has the potential to deliver 14 to 20% of the emissions mitigation the world needs by 2050 to stay below 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming. Foreign Policy
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
If the world meets the Paris Agreement's ultimate aim of 1.5 degrees - the level scientists say is necessary to avoid the most catastrophic effects of climate change - Australia's coal earnings could collapse by up to 80% by 2050. The Sydney Morning Herald
Up to US$183bn of premiums could be generated globally by 2040 as a consequence of climate change, mostly in the property insurance segment, given the threat of exposure to catastrophes such as floods, earthquakes, and extreme weather events like storms and wildfires. PwC
Africa contributes 2 to 3% of global emissions, but climate change threatens to expose up to 118 million of the poorest Africans to droughts, floods and extreme heat by 2030. United Nations
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
Climate change will be the greatest threat to humanity and global ecosystems in the coming years. Vanguard News
Fashion may not have decades to come around: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an intergovernmental body of the United Nations, has stated that to avoid climate catastrophe, global emissions must be halved by 2030. Fashionista
Questions
Can?
As we continue to redevelop what constitutes a nourishing diet in a warming world with an over-consolidated food system, how can we change the dialogue toward flavor and positivity, rather than skimping and scarcity? Mother Earth News
How can Italy prevent devastation from climate change? Euronews.com
The changing role of individuals; how will the green transition and climate change affect health and the health sector's role in the green transition; and ageing - how can health and long-term care systems work better together, and what will help us age healthily? Transport Times
How?
How will climate change affect crops and smallholder farmers? Climate Champions
Aviation is a crucial topic in a world tackling climate change - how can aviation become a climate-first industry? Politico
How can we all ensure that climate change does reverse progress towards attaining Sustainable Development Goals for the poorest and most vulnerable countries? Daily News
Who?
If the EU, with a heavy history of emitting greenhouse gases, does not lead on mitigating climate change, who will? CAN Europe
Who made the global warming mess the world is now in? AP News
The UN leader wants to talk in Hanoi about climate change policies, but how can Vietnam really move forward when it is busy jailing key civil society partners who are critical to national efforts to stop global warming? The Vietnamese Magazine
What?
The End of the Romans What if climate change and pandemics were the real causes of the decline of the Roman Empire? Twin Cities PBS
What is AGRA doing to help countries build food security in the face of climate change? Climate Champions
What will happen if global warming increases beyond the Paris climate goal of 1.5 degrees by the end of the century? Fazit Communication GmbH
When?
What could two of the world's biggest carbon emitters be discussing when it comes to collaborating on climate change? ABC (Australia)
How is the world faring when it comes to eliminating extreme poverty, combating climate change or achieving gender equality? Department of Economic and Social Affairs
When we discuss climate change, why is the wider conversation not about the circular economy? Circular Online
Will?
Is there a way to quantify the unit of today will do X amount of global warming potential, but very soon we will be able to do Y? CES
One of the most challenging questions regarding future climate change impacts on hurricanes and other tropical cyclones is, Will there be more storms, and how bad will they be? Verisk
How will humans react to climate change, what will we do about it now and in the future? EcoAthletes
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