Climate

A Future Prognosis

Matt Richardson

22 May 2022
Introduction
This set of automatically curated slides provides an instant overview about possible futures to help inform present day strategy, and for you to act on opportunities and risks and mitigate threats in a timely manner. Learn more.

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Contents
User Guide
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Sources
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Web Searches
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
HSBC regards climate change as one of the most serious emergencies facing the planet, and is committed to supporting its customers in their transition to net zero and a sustainable future and, like HSBC Asset Management, is committed to achieving net zero by 2050. //www.investmentweek.co.uk/
The challenge of capturing carbon is gigantic: the latest models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggest that as the global economy decarbonizes, the world will also need to remove around six billion tons of CO2 per year by 2050 to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. Fast Company
Methane emissions must be reduced by 45% by 2030 for the world to have a fighting chance at staving off catastrophic climate change. Waste Dive
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • The Securities and Exchange Commission's recently proposed rule is so complex and far-reaching it could reorient the entire U.S. financial system into one that prioritizes climate change over financial soundness. Restoring America
  • As the effects of climate change become more destructive, IFAD's investments in agricultural productivity and climate resilience will become even more crucial for supporting poor people in remote and conflict-prone areas. Latest
  • Although moneyed elites have far more resources to remain protected from the deadly impacts of climate change compared to the rest of us, occasionally even their homes are in the path of destruction, indicating that nowhere on Earth will be safe on a catastrophically warming planet. Alternet.org
Weaknesses
  • As the negative impacts of global challenges like climate change grow, it's becoming increasingly apparent that business as usual will not even work for businesses themselves. nextbillion
  • In order to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, no new oil and gas fields or coal mines could be developed. EcoWatch
  • The costs of climate change damage are expected to grow gradually until 2050, around which time there is a sharp increase under all scenarios. / Canada The Conversation
Opportunities
  • Clean Cars rules will open new doors to cleaner air and healthier communities in New Mexico by reducing dirty vehicle pollution and addressing climate change. New Mexico Clean Cars | Clean Air
  • Effective international cooperation can help facilitate an immediate and orderly global response to climate change, which has huge environmental benefits and has the potential to save trillions of dollars of global GDP by 2050. Bundesministerium der Finanzen
  • We can boost income, jobs, food security and gender equality in rural communities in emerging economies while simultaneously reducing their vulnerability - and the vulnerability of the rest of the world - to climate change. Climate Champions
Threats
  • Accelerating climate change disproportionately threatens sub-Saharan Africa, a region that produces less than 3% of global emissions but is home to a third of the world's droughts. Center for Global Development | Ideas to Action
  • About 7m deaths each year, including 750,000 children, are attributable to exposure to air pollution, which is a contributor to climate change and one of the biggest environmental threats to human health. / South Africa New African Magazine
  • Globally, coal is the single biggest contributor to climate change, and increasing coal use will make communities even more vulnerable to its effects. Project Syndicate
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
computer, atmosphere, augmented reality, autonomous, disaster, science
Emerging
EV, artificial intelligence, carbon, pandemic, country, battery
Maturing
emission, country, carbon, global warming, climate-change, community
Declining
emission, GDP, coal, country, biodiversity, carbon
Sentiment
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
HSBC regards climate change as one of the most serious emergencies facing the planet, and is committed to supporting its customers in their transition to net zero and a sustainable future and, like HSBC Asset Management, is committed to achieving net zero by 2050. //www.investmentweek.co.uk/
If the world is to curb emissions to net-zero by 2050, and avoid the most dire consequences of climate change, no new oil and gas fields can be developed from now on. Eco-business
PEST
Political
  • By 2025, Labor will have created a Federal ICAC with teeth, made childcare affordable, created real wage growth for the first time in a decade and provided certainty about action on climate change, stimulating massive growth in both government and industry projects. Captured States
  • The majority of buildings that will make up urban environments through 2030 already exist, and cities are feeling the effects of climate change firsthand, making them likely areas for legislation and action. CNBC
  • The water crisis may get worse by 2025 in Pakistan, which is among the top 10 countries badly affected by climate change. Pakistan Today
Economic
  • We can boost income, jobs, food security and gender equality in rural communities in emerging economies while simultaneously reducing their vulnerability - and the vulnerability of the rest of the world - to climate change. Climate Champions
  • The southern and eastern U.S. will be very warm to hot with highs of 80s - 90s, driving another round of steady cooling demand in the week ahead. Natural Gas Intelligence
  • While temperatures in the upper North Island will stay relatively warm, gale warnings have been issued for Auckland's Hauraki Gulf, Manukau Harbour, Coromandel, Bay of Plenty and Bream Head in Northland to Cape Colville. NZ Herald
Social
  • Rapid warming in Russia could unleash viruses previously unknown to humanity, a Nobel laureate climatologist has warned at an international climate forum in Siberia. The Moscow Times
  • In the future it is likely that families in the UK will eat different foods, and the interactive stall will have a Guess the Grain Game and Climate Ker - Plunk: an interactive game to demonstrate agricultural threats and solutions to climate change. John Innes Centre
  • UK, with EU, called for continued commitment to strengthen interlinkages with the UN Framework Convention to Combat Climate Change and the Convention on Biological Biodiversity (CBD), and encouraged projects that use integrated approaches. IISD Earth Negotiations Bulletin
Technological
  • The U.S. aims to cut its greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030 as part of its commitment to tackling climate change, but might be lacking the critical minerals needed to achieve its goals. Visual Capitalist
  • We see how public opinion reflects the urgency and willingness to change lifestyles, how youth worldwide demand and exercise more agency to fight climate change, environmental degradation and inequity and that technological development and uptake is occurring faster than anticipated. The Guardian
  • The heat absorption and reuse could potentially reduce data centers' carbon footprint by nearly half, reducing their contribution to climate change. oregonlive
Financial Impact
Investments of an additional $3.5 trillion annually will be required to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050 by limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C elsius to reduce the chances of catastrophic climate events. Brookings
Current rates of green investment are not enough to reach net zero emissions by 2050 and limit warming to 1.5 °C - that would require around $7 trillion during 2020-24. Nature Medicine
By attempting to limit global warming to 1.5 °C, global GDP would reach $165 trillion by 2050, which is a cumulative loss of $75 trillion from 2022 to 2050. Kremlin
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
By 2050, global coal, oil and gas use will need to decline by 95, 60 and 45% respectively, compared with 2019 levels, for the world to have a halfway decent shot at capping global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius, the U.N. panel noted. The New York Times
Climate change could see 4% of global annual economic output lost by 2050 and hit many poorer parts of the world disproportionately hard. CNA
If Canada and the rest of the world have any hope of achieving the emissions reduction targets set out in the Paris Agreement and staving off catastrophic climate change, we need to be generating two-thirds of global energy from renewables like wind, solar and geothermal by 2035. The Globe and Mail
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report - which warns that global emissions must decline by 2025 to avoid dangerous climate change - showed why must fossil fuel drilling must stop. The Independent
Large companies that do business in the United States would be required within three years to lay bare their contributions and vulnerabilities to climate change - including, in some cases, the planet-warming emissions associated with their customers and suppliers. E&E News
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
Australia is on the pathway to net zero emissions by 2050 and playing its part in responding to the critical global challenge of climate change. Brisbane Times
Even with the commitments made at COP26 to phase down coal, cut methane emissions and halt deforestation, some reports suggest the world is still on track for 2.4 C of warming by 2030. Climate Capital Live
The Bangladesh power plant is at odds with global efforts to curb climate change, and Sumitomo's own commitment to become carbon neutral by 2050. news.trust.org
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
Africa contributes 2 to 3% of global emissions, but climate change threatens to expose up to 118 million of the poorest Africans to droughts, floods and extreme heat by 2030. United Nations
Energy intensive air conditioning, likely to be the world's primary heat reduction strategy, exacerbates global warming and drives further extreme heat events, 5 while remaining unaffordable for the estimated two to five billion people who will be exposed to heat stress by 2050. The BMJ
Bangladesh is the seventh most vulnerable country to extreme weather conditions according to the Global Climate Risk Index 2020, and it has been estimated that one in seven Bangladeshis will be displaced due to climate change by 2050. The Good Feed
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
Climate change will be the greatest threat to humanity and global ecosystems in the coming years. Vanguard News
Fashion may not have decades to come around: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an intergovernmental body of the United Nations, has stated that to avoid climate catastrophe, global emissions must be halved by 2030. Fashionista
Questions
Can?
What can be done to stop or slow climate change? Peak Oil
Can technology arrive fast enough to stay ahead of the spreading dangers to energy infrastructure that climate change is creating? E&E News
What can we do to slow or stop global warming? Interesting Engineering
How?
Though how could anything be more ironic than the fact that is is the Olde Confederate South that is the US region most threatened by climate change? Contrary Brin
How will climate change uniquely impact my organization? BRINK - Conversations and Insights on Global Business
How do we feed a dramatically increasing global population in the face of climate change when the FEW resources are under considerable strain? Research Features
Who?
COP26 negotiations reach an impasse: who will pay for the consequences of climate change? Perild
Who will be harmed by climate change? The Conversation
Who are the economic winners and losers from climate change? events.nsmg.live
What?
What does a great power fix have to offer on issues like climate change, or global poverty or technological transformation? Lowy Institute
What if We Blotted Out the Sun to Fight Global Warming? Peak Oil
What are the causes of global warming? Interesting Engineering
When?
Is there a need for a comprehensive framework for considering climate change, or can it be treated on a case-by-case basis when deciding on specific measures? chinadialogue ocean
At a time when the world is meant to be tackling climate change why are airlines spending a fortune shuttling thousands of empty planes, each spewing tons of carbon emissions into the atmosphere, between airports? The Spectator
How can we reverse climate change when so much of the world is driven by private sector interests that favor conspicuous consumption, including the use of carbon energy? Henry Mintzberg
Will?
In the future, will climate change cut children and families off from their connections to home and heritage or might it prompt deeper relationships with culture and tradition? capita
Are anti-nuclear movements going to be reinvigorated as part of the fight against climate change or will they become relics of the past? New Security Beat
Will hydrogen have a key impact in fighting climate change or is it a hype? H2 View
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