Longevity

A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

5 June 2023
Introduction
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Contents
User Guide
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Sources
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
There remains uncertainty around the scale, speed and longevity of China's bounceback from zero-covid restrictions which could have a significant impact on the global outlook. Megatrends
Clinical centers around the world will likely start considering clinical trials where they first eradicate the disrupted gut microbiome in anorexic cases with antibiotics, and then follow with weekly fecal microbiome transplants for months. The Scientist Magazine
The veterinary industry can anticipate exciting new breakthroughs in the frontier of pet microbiome health thanks to a new partnership between Nestle Purina PetCare Global Research and the Gastrointestinal Laboratory at Texas A&M University's School of Veterinary Medicine & Biomedical Sciences. VMBS News
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • In life and health reinsurance, the result for Q1 2023 surpassed Hannover Re's expectations, driven by sustained strong demand in the financial solutions segment and for solutions designed to protect against longevity risks, as well as by sharply lower pandemic-related losses. Reinsurance News
  • A potentially important application could be to increase microbiome resilience to pathogens, thereby reducing the global need for antibiotics, thus decreasing the speed at which antibiotic-resistant organisms spread. OUP Academic
  • Unlike Indonesia's multigenerational political dynasties, whose longevity and autonomy allows them a level of resilience, the first challenge for the Widodo family will be to 'bed down' its successor generation. East Asia Forum
Weaknesses
  • The UC San Diego team envisioned a smart aging process that extends cellular longevity by cycling deterioration from one aging mechanism to another. ScienceDaily
  • Progressive lawmakers, along with environmental groups like the Sierra Club and Natural Resources Defense Council, have historically been against nuclear power - often focusing on the danger, longevity and storage requirements of the radioactive waste. The New York Times
  • Xiaomi says not to worry about battery longevity, indicating that its Xiaomi Surge battery management and charging chipsets will offer protection in that area. CNet
Opportunities
  • New Longevity initiative aims to create a global movement to reframe ageing and unleash lifelong human potential to lead a longer, healthier and purposeful life as a lifelong giver/contributor / changemaker. Eventbrite
  • To ensure QD-OLED longevity and better performance, it includes a custom heatsink and graphene film, the thinnest yet strongest nanomaterial in the world, behind the whole QD-OLED panel, for better heat dissipation to reduce the risk of burn - in and boost the peak brightness up to 1000 nits. SURPERFORMANCE
  • Longevity biotech, which was almost nonexistent just a few years ago, now has about 40 therapies in clinical trials and is expected to grow substantially in the following years; after all, aging is going nowhere. Lifespan Extension Advocacy Foundation
Threats
  • Future scientists might be able to develop therapies that can delay the onset of multiple illnesses, from heart disease to dementia to cancers, all at the same time by reprogramming human cells to reverse aging. The Boston Globe
  • Addressing diseases which affect people later in life, such as Alzheimer's and other causes of dementia, will be vital to increasing longevity, Swiss Re said. Insurance Business
  • Future improvements in human longevity will need to be supported by addressing health issues more common to the elderly, such as Alzheimer's disease, along with lifestyle factors and access to healthcare. Insurance Business
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
bacteria, antimicrobial resistance, artificial intelligence, life, microbiome, scientist
Emerging
ageing, anti-aging, artificial intelligence, battery, longevity, consumer
Maturing
longevity, ageing, anti-aging, adult, care, country
Declining
ageing, longevity, economy, growth, life expectancy, Arctic
Sentiment
Past Year: More Negative
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
There remains uncertainty around the scale, speed and longevity of China's bounceback from zero-covid restrictions which could have a significant impact on the global outlook. Megatrends
Imagine a world in which radical life-extension technologies enable totalitarian states to keep people alive in torture chambers for indefinitely long periods of time - perhaps hundreds or thousands of years. Genetic Literacy Project
PEST
Political
  • Progressive lawmakers, along with environmental groups like the Sierra Club and Natural Resources Defense Council, have historically been against nuclear power - often focusing on the danger, longevity and storage requirements of the radioactive waste. The New York Times
  • As the number of oldest-old individuals is projected to quadruple from 2015 to 2050 and widen urban-rural disparity in longevity and disability in China, 49 national policies and detailed programmes are needed to make more eligible healthcare providers implement home visiting services. BMJ Open
  • Unlike Indonesia's multigenerational political dynasties, whose longevity and autonomy allows them a level of resilience, the first challenge for the Widodo family will be to 'bed down' its successor generation. East Asia Forum
Economic
  • Recent research from the University of Leicester, UK, has discovered that air pollution is impacting the delicate gut microbiome of British bumble bees, which could have consequences for their health and the global food chain. One Green Planet
  • Work will continue on the safe life extension of existing reactors, decommissioning of nuclear plants including Japan's Fukushima Daiichi reactor, developing civil nuclear capacity in interested countries, and promoting the recycling of used nuclear fuel to minimize the need for uranium. Japan Today
  • The Global Longevity Economy, which refers to the economic impact of individuals aged 50 and over, is projected to reach $118 trillion by 2050. the weekly ledger
Social
  • Greece's oldest F-16 Block 30s have undergone the Falcon UP service-life extension and there have been suggestions in the past that they could be sold off, or perhaps used as aggressors for air-to-air training. The Drive
  • Education initiatives could be created to promote longevity biotechnology to university students in Montenegro and its former-Yugoslavian neighbours. Forbes
  • Speculation is mounting about whether the Albanese government will use the upcoming federal budget to reverse a Gillard-era decision to lower the age at which single women received a parenting allowance. The New Daily
Technological
  • The Ohio State University (Columbus, OH) will scale its prototype high-power battery technology that can tolerate rapid charging while demonstrating longevity far beyond the current state-of-the-art Li-ion cells. Energy.gov
  • The Qualcomm QCS4490 and QCM4490 Processors are designed with planned support for Android releases through version 18, meaning they can be used in industrial designs through 2030, providing flexibility and longevity for maximising development time and cost savings. IoT Now News - How to run an IoT enabled business
  • The longevity gap between men and women is a global phenomenon, although sex differences and data on the ages of greatest risk vary around the world and are influenced by cultural norms, record keeping and geopolitical factors such as war, climate change and poverty. Washington Post
Financial Impact
The Global Longevity Economy, which refers to the economic impact of individuals aged 50 and over, is projected to reach $118 trillion by 2050. the weekly ledger
An emerging industry in the MENA region, longevity is estimated to be worth $26.5 trillion in 2022 and is expected to reach $33 trillion in 2026 globally. Dubai Chronicle
An emerging industry in the MENA region, longevity is estimated to be worth $26.5 trillion in 2022 and expected to reach $33 trillion in 2026 globally. Zawya
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
Nations agreed on a road map to reverse decades of environmental destruction threatening species and the land and ocean ecosystems that provide Earth's life support. South China Morning Post
Nations agreed on a roadmap to reverse decades of environmental destruction threatening species and the land and ocean ecosystems that provide Earth's life support. ScienceAlert
The microbial resistance potential of the ISS microbiome was similar to controls on Earth, suggesting the threat of AMR is comparable. ASM.org
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
The longevity gap between men and women is a global phenomenon, although sex differences and data on the ages of greatest risk vary around the world and are influenced by cultural norms, record keeping and geopolitical factors such as war, climate change and poverty. Washington Post
British allergy experts acknowledge that nasal microbiome research is shedding new light on how hay fever develops but warn that it's too early to say if it will transform treatment. The Irish News
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
As highlighted by the US National Academy of Medicine's Global Roadmap for Healthy Longevity, multiple systems within society will need to be activated, transformed and coordinated to address all aspects of life. National University of Singapore
The concept that international travel, or travel of any kind, is a risk factor for microbiome change is fairly well accepted now. CIDRAP
Founded by David Kekich, a well-known figure among researchers and activists who believe lifespan can be greatly expanded, MLF says its aim is to reverse the human aging process by 2033. / Mexico Wired
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
Even if no formal physiological limit exists, reaching the frontiers of survival is no mean feat, and further gains in longevity might ultimately require remarkable advances in medical science, even if the ranks of the world's centenarians continue to swell. Nature Medicine
The longevity economy is not some far out trend, but rather an economic reality that will only intensify in the coming years. Advocate for a New Story of Our Age
There is no regulation of IV therapy by the Therapeutic Goods Act in Australia, so ultimately you could be paying to receive sugar water, rather than the advertised formulas for anti-ageing. The Conversation
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
The first approved therapy from geroscience will come within five years. NEO.LIFE
Businesses need to recognise the overarching impact of ageing and rising longevity and embrace the opportunities it will bring in the coming years. Euromonitor
Questions
Can?
How can we engineer a microbiome that can help us live healthy, long lives? Interesting Engineering
If NANOG can reverse the effects of aging in cellular metabolism, could it regenerate skeletal muscle cells as well? Forbes
How can non-gerontologists learn from turning to questions of old age, aging, and older adults, and from engaging with the problem of ageism? Data & Society: Points
How?
How could advancements in beauty and anti-aging technology affect self-perception and mental health? College Transitions
How much more lop-sided will our society become if radical life extension moves into the mainstream? America Magazine
How can we influence fermented food microbiomes? OUP Academic
Who?
In a world of make-believe, where one lives forever as a machine, who will control the machinery of life? Coherent Publishing
Who are the most prominent players in the global Anti-aging Drugs market? Trends
What?
What does a healthy gut microbiome look like? Wicked Leeks
What is the economic impact of rising longevity, albeit at a slower pace than had been expected only a few years ago? National Institute of Economic and Social Research
What would happen if humans could live forever? Medium
When?
One factor making Boston a potential hotbed when it comes to the explosion of the longevity economy? YOUAREUNLTD
Will?
Can we leverage the common agricultural practice of planting legume cover crops to enrich soil microbiomes for specific rhizobia that will help fertilize future plants? Small But Mighty (Penn State College of Agricultural Sc
The factors of ageing are now infinitely better understood, so why not hope that scientific progress in the course of this century will lead to a similar or even more spectacular extension of longevity? OpenMind
Will we see a cure for ageing? The Week UK
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