Space

A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

5 July 2022
Introduction
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Contents
User Guide
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Sources
RSS Feeds
Twitter Searches
Web Searches
Twitter Feeds
World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
An integral part of NASA's plan to return astronauts to the moon this decade is the Lunar Gateway, a space station that will be humanity's first permanent outpost outside of low Earth orbit. IEEE Spectrum
The total cost of Nasa's lunar programme, Artemis, will have ballooned to $93 billion by 2025 - before it even gets its new rocket off the planet for a test flight. The Times
The Luna-25 lander, possibly launching in mid-2022, will mark Russia's first moon landing since 1976, when the Soviet-era Luna-24 lander collected lunar samples to return to Earth. The New York Times
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • The strength of its regolith polymer composite will support the lunar outpost's geometry to create a sustainable and long-lasting structure that could support long-term habitation and potentially future travel to other planets. 3D Printing Industry
  • The burgeoning space tourism industry could soon fuel significant global warming while also depleting the protective ozone layer that is crucial for sustaining life on Earth, a new study concludes. Inside Climate News
  • Capstone will provide a spacecraft-to-spacecraft navigation system, taking advantage of the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter that's already there. Wired
Weaknesses
  • Space resource mining on the Moon or asteroids, along with space-based solar power, represent long-term opportunities with potential to provide materials to construct space-based habitats and eventually to help address resource scarcity on Earth. World Economic Forum
  • The NOM4D program - short for Novel Orbital Moon Manufacturing, Materials, and Mass Efficient Design - will test materials science, manufacturing and design technologies that could be used off Earth someday. Space
  • Musk's long-term aim is to use Starship for landing people on Mars, but in the short term they do have a viable program contract: NASA plans to use Starship as the human landing system to put astronauts on the moon as part of the Artemis program. Forbes
Opportunities
  • SpaceX's first mission paid entirely with Dogecoin, DOGE-1, could lift off to the Moon in December 2022. TESMANIAN
  • Panasonic will provide electronic materials to contribute to businesses relating to the moon and Mars, which are expected to expand in the future, and technological innovations for high-altitude platform stations, etc., thereby aiming to realize a sustainable society. Panasonic Newsroom Global
  • If all goes to plan, scientists will have lots of data about where to set up lunar research outposts, including a sprawling facility that China aims to develop with Russian help. Space
Threats
  • Tool move - in is expected to start by end-2022, based on company plans, ahead of risk production in late 2024 E with Intel (client PC Lunar Lake's graphic tiles, while the CPU tiles are fabbed using Intel's 18 A) and Apple being the anchor customers for dedicated capacity support. / China Gizmodo
  • Further hazards will be encountered on the moon and Mars, where the lack of natural erosion from wind or water means rock particles are more like broken bits of glass than pebbles or sand granules here on Earth. The Official Microsoft Blog
  • Figuring out how to contain soft stools so they do not put other astronauts at risk - as well as how to deal with the dehydration and electrolyte imbalance that often come with extended periods of diarrhea - is considered a high priority before future lunar and near-Earth asteroid missions. Popular Science
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
Mars, moon, astronaut, lunar, flight, lander
Emerging
3D, 4G, EV, artificial intelligence, crypto, moon
Maturing
moon, lunar, Mars, astronaut, commercial, company
Declining
company, moon, Mars, budget, coal, economy
Sentiment
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
Coca-Cola Company recently pledged to sell, by 2030, no less than 25% of its beverages globally in refillable or returnable containers. Andrew Busch
Impel's financial messaging platform, and the R3 Corda Bridge could become ubiquitous globally within two years or less. FinExtra
PEST
Political
  • Defense By Bryan Bender Proponents for a more muscular U.S. military say they fear China cannot be trusted to pursue only peaceful aims and could use its space program for both economic and military advantage, including a new partnership with Russia to build a moon base. Inferse.com
  • Canadian astronauts will soon need to be wary of committing crimes on the lunar surface. MobileSyrup
  • Russia and China plan to open their future lunar research station to all interested parties, but no Artemis country has expressed interest. Space War
Economic
  • Canoo will launch commercial production of its vehicles from its Arkansas factory in late 2022, and deliver on the NASA Artemis vehicle in 2023. Inhabitat
  • With Space Tourism peaking in interest this past year with billionaires such as Richard Branson, Jeff Bezos, and Elon Musk all developing rockets to orbit space, the hotel industry will definitely have a future beyond the sky. Yahoo News
  • Once space tourism becomes mainstream, it will have a positive impact on many socio-economic processes on Earth: job creation, development of new energy infrastructure based on solar energy, etc. Emma Thorpe
Social
  • The Radio wave Observations at the Lunar Surface of the photo-Electron Sheath will land on the lunar nearside later in 2022. Forbes
  • In the UK watching from a high vantage point like a hill or tall building will be essential because of the Moon's very low position in the sky. BBC News
  • Given the urgency of Earth's biosystem crises, the moon offers opportunity for deployable infrastructure and extraction long before asteroid harvesting becomes practicable. Space
Technological
  • There's a Japanese CubeSat called OMOTENASHI (Outstanding MOon exploration TEchnologies demonstrated by NAno Semi-Hard Impactor) that will land on the moon's surface to measure the radiation environment there. SlashGear
  • LEIA will provide biological research on the moon - which cannot be simulated or replicated with high fidelity on the Earth or International Space Station - by delivering the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae to the lunar surface and studying its response to radiation and lunar gravity. phys.org
  • The LuGRE mission seeks to spark further development of GNSS-based navigation capabilities near and on the moon, even as NASA plans to begin using high-altitude GNSS operationally for future lunar missions. phys.org
Financial Impact
Between lunar missions and commercial space stations, low-Earth economy and vital information-gathering about our planet, investments in the space industry could reach $1 trillion in the 2030s. World Economic Forum
By 2045, China seeks to become the dominant space power, and by mid-century, it aims to develop an Earth-Moon space economic zone potentially capable of generating $10 trillion in value per year. The National Interest
If the space economy could reach a trillion dollars by 2030 then, after demonstration of the economic feasibility of lunar industrial development, a $10 trillion space economy by 2040 would be within reach. The Space Review
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
An integral part of NASA's plan to return astronauts to the moon this decade is the Lunar Gateway, a space station that will be humanity's first permanent outpost outside of low Earth orbit. IEEE Spectrum
ESA's large-class science missions for the timeframe 2035-2050 will focus on moons of the giant Solar System planets, temperate exoplanets or the galactic ecosystem, and new physical probes of the early universe. phys.org
Given the state of the world right now, it's no great surprise that President Trump's goal to send humans back to the moon by 2024 is in jeopardy. Discover Magazine
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
AN OUT-of-control rocket on course to crash into the Moon threatens to contaminate its surface with microbes from Earth, a scientist has warned. The Sun
Having fewer red blood cells in space is not a problem when your body is weightless, but when landing on earth and potentially on other planets or moons, anemia affecting your energy, endurance, and strength can threaten mission objectives. Media
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
The burgeoning space tourism industry could soon fuel significant global warming while also depleting the protective ozone layer that is crucial for sustaining life on Earth, a new study concludes. Inside Climate News
While the process of electrolysis on Earth is well-understood, much less is known about how it might function in the lower-gravity environments of Mars, where the pull of gravity is one-third that of Earth, and the Moon, where it is just one-sixth. Metro.co.uk
Figuring out how to contain soft stools so they do not put other astronauts at risk - as well as how to deal with the dehydration and electrolyte imbalance that often come with extended periods of diarrhea - is considered a high priority before future lunar and near-Earth asteroid missions. Popular Science
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
Tackling the challenge of building on the Moon will require the know-how of what's already been done in Earth's harshest environments - extreme cold, extreme dust, higher radioactivity - combined with new thinking and approaches. SpaceRef
Habitable planets and moons might be extremely rare - especially planets like Earth that have remained habitable for billions of years - but it's looking more and more like any planet or moon that can support life likely has the necessary chemicals on hand. Universe Today
For prospecting, exploring, and ultimately using the far side of the Moon, Lunar Pathfinder's communications relay service will provide a vital communications bridge between Earth and the lunar surface. E&T
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
NASA wants to experiment with a new orbit around the moon that it hopes to use in the coming years to once again land astronauts on the lunar surface. / New Zealand CP24
In the coming years, SpaceX will provide the Human Landing System (HLS) for the Artemis III mission - the first crewed mission to the Moon since the Apollo Era. Universe Today
Questions
Can?
Can Physics-Informed Neural Nets replace traditional methods in lunar mapping to support rover traverses and human operations at the lunar poles? SETI Institute
Can SpaceX be held liable for its space junk hitting the Moon? Forbes
The United States has always been equivocal about Moon's KPI, perceiving it as a kind of meddling between North Korea and the U.S., so what kind of reward can Biden offer Moon? The Diplomat
How?
How soon before the earth is ringed with orbital factories and humanity has planted itself permanently on the moon, Mars, and beyond? The Boston Globe
How important is space tourism? Around World journal
How will space itself be managed once many countries demonstrate their capability to build space stations and land on various other planets, moons, and asteroids in the solar system? Issues in Science and Technology
Who?
Who will own the Moon's resources? Digital Journal
What?
What are the ethics of mining the Moon? Eos
What are the main challenges facing any mining operation on the moon, or in space? Mining Global
What will the future exploration of the Galilean moons look like if the MMAT is effective? Universe Today
When?
When will see Europeans on the Moon? SpaceWatch.Global
When can we expect space tourism to become commonplace? Phys Org
Why throw the ISS away, when it could be offered to the international private sector for use as a lunar-staging infrastructure? Tech Crunch
Will?
With enough money and enough will, could China beat the U.S. back to the moon? Time
Will increasing traffic to the Moon contaminate its precious ice? Europa
Will space tourism harm the environment? The Conversation
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