Understanding the wave that each trend is in at any point in time will help you best exploit its position for business model transformation (emerging wave - top right), high competitive advantage (differentiating wave - middle), or proven business value (business value wave - bottom left).
Emerging wave = new and potentially transformational for entrepreneurial players
Differentiating wave = high differentiation from slower players
Business value wave = well recognized by all players
Here's how I populate the above chart:
INTENSITY: The y-axis is a measure of the aggregated, average strengths of the forecasts being made.
TIPPING POINT: The x-axis is a measure of how quickly the aggregated, average forecasts will likely arrive and before the public will accept them as the existing paradigm.
Bottom left of the background banding is a close in and strong signal and top right is a further out and weak signal positioning. The banding gives an approximation of who or what is looking further in and further out. Shaping Tomorrow looks across all these bands to present a comprehensive view of future issues.
These forecasts are analyzed on a 3-year rolling average.
There is no right positioning on this chart. And, positioning should be viewed at a box or banding level rather than trying to discern differences within a box or band (the data is not yet sufficiently granular and extensive to do that).
You can set up your own chart on any Challenge OR Organization if you are our client and have them updated and displayed each week.
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