A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

15 August 2022
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
Another study finds that 44% of regional and global banks will offer crypto support by the end of the year. The Financial Brand
Global Bitcoin adoption will hit 10% by 2030, a Blockware Intelligence report shows. TESMANIAN
44% of regional and global banks will offer crypto support by the end of the year. Daily Fintech
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
  • The West's financial hegemony is being threatened by both centralized virtual currencies (especially Chinese and Russian) and decentralized virtual currencies (e.g., Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies) which have exploded in popularity and viability. Wilson Center
  • There are some strong indicators that Dogecoin could emerge as one of the hottest meme coins to buy in 2022. HeraldScotland
  • There will be a strong case for Ethereum to be classified as a security following the Merge. Crypto Briefing
  • The U.S. government has spent years warning that crypto mixers may be illegal or aid in illegal activity. CoinDesk
  • Regulatory bodies, including the BoE, international financial watchdog Financial Stability Board and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, the global standard setter for banking regulations, are looking to set standards and regulations to limit potential crypto risks. CoinDesk
  • Many investors are worried that the release of 137,000 BTC could cause a devastating decline in the price of Bitcoin due to increased sell pressure. ATF News
  • Scaramucci recently opined that the US Federal Reserve could adopt a less aggressive rate hike policy towards the end of the year, which would help push the price of Bitcoin higher. TESMANIAN
  • Bitcoin will be able to achieve a super-bullish price target within the next six years. TESMANIAN
  • Nvidia still likely has plenty of RTX 30-series cards after a drop in crypto demand, so Intel could be well placed to compete later in 2022 if it can get its drivers and pricing in check. The Verge
  • When the discussion about China's threat came, Taiwan made the announcement of integrating Ethereum IPFS to counter the attack that is predicted to happen. TechStory
  • Investors have dumped speculative assets from stocks to crypto in 2022 on fears that aggressive central bank policy tightening could tip the US economy into a recession. The Times
  • In 2022 we expect more partnerships between regtechs and financial institutions, to enable FIs to cope with sanctions, monitor crypto transactions, detect UBOs, and most importantly spot fraudulent activity. Research

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

crypto, bitcoin, computer, attack, asset, blockchain
bitcoin, crypto, asset, blockchain, bank, app
crypto, asset, bank, price, bitcoin, coin
crypto, bitcoin, asset, price, bank, blockchain
Past Year: More Negative
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
Another study finds that 44% of regional and global banks will offer crypto support by the end of the year. The Financial Brand
Globally, we have seen moves to regulate crypto and we anticipate the introduction of a clear South African regulatory regime likely by the end of 2022. ITWeb
  • Regulatory bodies, including the BoE, international financial watchdog Financial Stability Board and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, the global standard setter for banking regulations, are looking to set standards and regulations to limit potential crypto risks. CoinDesk
  • The UK Treasury has announced an ambition to make the UK a global crypto hub so additional tax and regulatory measures are expected in the coming months. Lexology
  • Just because crypto companies are slashing jobs does not mean there are not opportunities in blockchain. Dice Insights
  • US-touching crypto exchanges, such as Coinbase, will be expected to block tainted ether. Attack of the 50 Foot Blockchain
  • US$100,000, US$500,000 or even US$ 1 million bitcoin could be in the cards in five to 10 years. INN
  • Mining bitcoin in Venezuela, Solomon Islands and Antigua and Barbuda is the most financially irresponsible thing you can do and could set you back over $69,000 in losses after factoring in electricity costs. Digg
  • NFTs on the Ethereum blockchain are worth more than US$ 14 billion, which is up from US$ 340 million in 2020, and it is estimated to reach US$ 80 billion by 2025. it World Canada
  • GameStop has joined forces with Immutable X for its NFT marketplace that will be built on the Ethereum blockchain. EconoTimes
  • Twitter could create a marketplace where smart people can share their intellectual capital and allow direct message access and other value for Dogecoins. Cryptonite's Off-the-Block
  • The layer two Lightning Network is the technology that could upend the legacy retail system and bring the promise of Bitcoin as money to the world. Decentralize.Today
  • Digital currencies will be an important part of web 3.0 and PayPal already accept bitcoin and have made crypto a big part of their new app experience. Social Fundraising for Nonprofits by Nick Burne
  • One of India's most popular crypto platforms, CoinDCX, is projected to touch the 1,000-employee mark by the end of 2022. News18
Financial Impact
Coinbase could reach $49.2 billion in revenue exiting 2025 under a bullish outlook of mass crypto adoption, rising interest among institutional investors and the sector growing to $6.8 trillion in total size. CoinDesk
The Bitcoin network could eventually be valued as high as $100 trillion.
As one cryptocurrency expert had predicted earlier in 2021 after a dip, Bitcoin could reach $100,000 value later in 2021. Interesting Engineering
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System Map
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
By 2035, one cryptocurrency (likely Bitcoin) will emerge as the world's first global currency, supplanting the U.S. Dollar - even in its digital, stablecoin form - as the default currency for international trades and purchases. Futurist Speaker
By the end of the year, bitcoin mining could use almost as much energy as all the world's data centers combined. Gizmodo
Adoption by the developing world is seen as the key driver, with 33% of respondents saying bitcoin will become the currency of choice in developing nations within 10 years. MoneyHunter
Changing proportion of published forecasts
Disastrous stablecoin failures, which threaten to destabilize the entire crypto-ecosystem when pegs based upon mysterious and unaudited global shadow banking reserves suddenly begin to drop; and. LinkedIn
Central African Republic (CAR), one of the world's poorest countries, became the first African state to make bitcoin legal tender in April, baffling many cryptocurrency experts and prompting the International Monetary Fund to warn it was not a panacea for Africa's challenges. CNA
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
The Crypto Climate Accord's overall objective is to decarbonize the global crypto industry by prioritizing climate stewardship and supporting the entire crypto industry's transition to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2040.
Global Bitcoin adoption will break past 10% in the year 2030. usfunds
Last year, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, which helps set capital requirements for big banks around the world, proposed giving digital tokens like Bitcoin and Ether the highest possible risk weighting. The New York Times
Key topics
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
Under an extreme scenario where gold or Bitcoin becomes the reserve currency of the world, the value of the digital asset could fall between $1.3 million to $4.8 million. usfunds
Proponents of the largest cryptocurrency have long contended that bitcoin will ultimately displace the dollar as a global reserve currency. Blockworks
Stacks blocks will always settle on the Bitcoin blockchain as the ultimate source of truth, but microblocks introduce a new lower-latency global view of the Stacks blockchain transaction state. Hiro
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
The recent crash of a popular stablecoin and the dramatic fall of Bitcoin from nearly $69,000 to below $22,000 in just about two years (at the time of publishing), highlights some of the hazards and risks that come from decentralized financial systems. 102.3 KRMG
Bitcoin could replace gold and the US dollar as the global reserve commodity in the coming years, it would be prudent for India to adopt Bitcoin as part of its strategic financial reserve. Observer Research Foundation
How can anyone accept crypto as payment when it could be worth a lot less the next day? LinkedIn
Can Predictive Analytics Really Help with Forecasting Bitcoin Price Movements Amidst Huge Market Volatility? SmartData Collective
Can Axie rise to its former glory amid the crypto winter and uncertain global economy? CoinTelegraph
How will the crypto regulations shape up in the future? 101 Blockchains
How high will bitcoin go in the long term? NextAdvisor with TIME
How Can AI Address the Concerns the IMF Has Raised About Bitcoin? SmartData Collective
Who hold the most bitcoin?
If speculators would rather put their chips elsewhere, and conservative investors stay away, who is left to buy Bitcoin? ZyCrypto
Who will be next to succumb to the crypto whims? Sifted
What does crypto's future look like? Insight
What work has the UK government (and its associated bodies) done to understand, prepare for and, where relevant, encourage changes that may be brought about by increased adoption of crypto assets? Passle
What impact could the use of crypto assets have on social inclusion? Passle
Will Bitcoin and other initial iterations of cryptocurrency fall by the wayside when the U.S. government introduces the digital dollar? Daniel Burrus
If Bitcoin becomes a reserve asset by 2030, when India may be the 3rd largest economy, would we have the 3rd largest bitcoin holding? MediaNama
What will the bitcoin cryptocurrency be when it grows up? Yahoo!
Could Bitcoin continue its recovery or will bears pose a strong challenge at higher levels? CoinTelegraph
Will quantum computing take the place of crypto in terms of the fintech zeitgeist? Finovate
What Bitcoin will be worth in 2040? CaptainAltcoin
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